This is an extremely difficult game to analyze. Iowa State has only one meaningful game establishing its rank. Houston has more, but they show some wildly disparate results.
IOWA STATE
The Cyclones have played two sub-100 opponents and with home field advantage factored in drops both of them to the 125 range. Both North Dakota and Arkansas State have fared well other than against P4 teams, but that really doesn’t say much as far as how to measure Iowa State playing against them.
Arkansas State had a good final score against Michigan, but the box score shows that the game was 28-3 until later in the fourth quarter, and Michigan shot themselves in the foot several times in the first half. The score could easily have been nearly the same as it was against Iowa State and I think that is an indicator of the real Arkansas State capability.
So, score-wise the Cyclones' lopsided win against Arkansas State should probably not get the adrenaline going for us that much, aside from the things we saw on the field with our eyes.
So that leaves only Iowa as a real measuring marker for the Clones. Iowa is ranked in the twenties in the power rankings, and though I think that may be a tad high, it’s close enough. Beating even a 30’s team on the road is a worthy win.
Outside of Iowa State, the only other notable team Iowa has played is Minnesota who is ranked 56th, but home-field adjusted made them a 30’s opponent, and Iowa handled them solidly in the second half. But honestly, that is Kirk’s trademark…his teams play really well against mid-ranked teams that generally does not show up against top-15 teams. (Which Iowa almost never plays.)
So with a very limited sample to use, Iowa State being ranked 19th right now seems like a reasonable fit so long as we remain cautious of the limited data that put them there.
HOUSTON
Will the real Houston please stand up? As it is, Houston comes in power ranked 78th.
Take away the OU performance as an outlier and it drops even further. But…there is the OU performance that raises eyebrows, and it’s hard to ignore.
The issue with Houston is that there is no reason not to consider them a talent laden team that could very well instantly become very competitive in the Big-12. The problem is they haven’t shown that yet…except for the good showing against Oklahoma. But that is a big, glaring piece of the data.
So is the slobber-knocking they took against Cincy though, which is their most recent game and carries a lot of weight. Whereby OU is more in the rearview mirror.
But just what is Oklahoma this year, and what does Houston’s performance against them mean?
Right now the Sooners are ranked in the mid-teens, and they have played only one relevant opponent (if you consider Houston as not overly relevant). They lost to 4th ranked Tennessee by ten points. That is a pretty good margin of loss against to a top-10 opponent, especially if you are Oklahoma. And it was at home.
Teams below the top-10 drop off somewhat rapidly, so OU being in the mid-teens means that they are human. So perhaps the close game against Oklahoma doesn’t carry as much merit as the name recognition labels it.
So aside from OU, Houston has not fared well at all.
Give Houston credit they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. But losing soundly to teams in the 40’s and 50’s, (45th UNLV and 52nd Cincinnati) does not bode well for how they are playing now. Their only win was to sub-100 Rice.
It is very easy to call the close loss to Oklahoma an outlier, and probably should be. Considering that the Sooners do not look like a blueblood giant this year, that discredits Houston’s performance against them just a tad more.
Still, Houston has talent potential that hasn’t seemed to show up much yet, and the close game against OU is there like a sore thumb.
IOWA STATE VS. HOUSTON
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State favored by 11 points and with a 79% chance of winning.
In addition to that, their OU performance should be considered an outlier, and their ranking could be considered even lower than that.
I’m having a hard time having confidence in that. There too many unknowns and I’m still convinced this is a talent laden team that if it starts hitting on all cylinders could be a really tough opponent. Add to that it’s a night game at home for Cougs, and that creates a solid home field advantage. It wouldn’t take much for Houston the put together a winnable condition. Especially if Iowa State does not bring their top game.
That said, Iowa State passes the eye test that they can be ready to play anybody in the conference, anywhere, and at any time. So it’s not hard to have confidence on Campbell’s team right now either.
I’m going chicken here, and I’m going to detune the Cygarin Ratings calculations some, and go with being favored by a touchdown. That comes out as a 69% chance of winning, or winning two out of every three times.
For me, keep in mind that I'm more interested in probability of coming out with a win than I am in predicting the final score. Assuming that we win, this is a game we could win by just one or as much thirty-five.
Let’s just hope that this isn’t the game that Houston starts hitting on all cylinders, and/or this turns out to be the one game out of three we lose due to plain ole probability.
(In my opinion.)
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