Here is the Cygarin Ratings analysis for the 2023 Liberty Bowl.
Bowl games are always a challenge to predict because the bowl season is in and of itself a whole new season with a lot of variables that are unique compared to the regular season. The Cygarin Ratings has little ability to identify the impact of such variables on either team, so the best it can do is make the assumption that all continues to be as- is, and let the reader decide if and what variables may impact the game and how to apply them.
That out of the way, here we go……
IOWA STATE:
There is nothing new about the Cyclones since the end of the season, but it is still difficult to comprehend how well we have played recently. Iowa State has been playing at the level of a top-10 team since before the mid-point of the season. Furthermore, the few performances that have dropped down, can easily be identified as a few touchdown causing single-play mistakes. Shoot, even a blocked extra point resulted in two points for the opposing team, the net equivalent of a field goal. How often have you seen that?
Iowa State’s average performance for the season is about 33rd in the country. That itself is not all that bad. But to put that in perspective Iowa State was playing 66th in the country for its first three games. So, to climb to a reasonable 33rd average for the entire season required some lofty performance later on and they did. VERY lofty.
But the Cyclones playing at a 10th ranked performance is not the full picture either…Iowa State has played only three games in conference play below 10th rated. But when they did play below, they played excessively below (OU & KU), pulling their performance down to 10th overall.
Taking the OU and KU performances out of the average is impactful. So impactful that let’s just say that…unless we screw the pooch with costly individual plays against Memphis…playing at “just” a top-10 level is suggesting a bit of a cushion.
Indeed, the trend graphs suggest that Kansas State was not influenced by the weather at all, but rather the continuation of a season of continual improvement. Texas rather, was the outlier in this trend.
And not to be ignored is that Iowa State finished the season with the 11th ranked strength of schedule in the country. It’s not like the Cyclone’s performance numbers were augmented by playing an easy schedule.
MEMPHIS
Memphis is power ranked 64th in the country. Based on that and Iowa State’s season average rating, Iowa State would be favored by five points. (I do give Memphis a home field advantage). For a bowl matchup that’s a pretty satisfying margin going into the game, and represents a little over a 64% of winning.
But if you use Iowa State’s ranking of 10th, then the Cyclones are 15-point favorites, with an 85% chance of winning.
Most indications suggest that the Tigers are who they appear to be rating-wise. Their trend is reasonably flat though the season, and most of their performances have not been excessively far out of line.
The Tigers strength of schedule is where things get a bit challenging to evaluate….
Memphis has played only three teams all season that come anywhere close to the caliber of Iowa State; 16th Missouri, 21st SMU, and 46th Boise State.
All three were above average performances for the Tigers, losing to Missouri by only 7 and SMU by only 4. Pretty competitive for a team ranked 64th in the country.
The 4th best team they played though was 57thg ranked Tulane, and Memphis lost to them by ten points for their worst performance of the year. And that was at home no less.
After their top four opponents though, their strength of schedule falls out the bottom. All the rest of their schedule…75 percent of it…was against solidly entrenched sub-100 opponents.
Evaluating performance against sub-100 opponents is difficult, and in the case of Memphis they played about seven points worse against these sub-100 teams than they did their top four opponents, or about four point worse than their ranking.
There does appear to be a small trend of playing worse at the end of the year, with four of their last six games being below their expected outcome. Did they let up against weaker opponents? Hard to say, but I would guess probably so, at least to some extent.
The bottom line is, that with only four quality opponents to compare with, and all of those being in the earlier part of the year, it is hard to put a finger on what level Memphis is capable of performing at recently. But I just don’t think this Memphis team is quite as good as when we played them before.
SUMMARY:
Let’s talk potential worst case first. If you match up the best of what Memphis has to give on the field, with the average of what Iowa State has been playing in recent times, I suggest that puts this game right at a 10-point spread, with about 75 percent chance of winning.
But I could easily claim that Iowa State is playing at least five points better that even that recently, and I can also make a claim that Memphis is playing at least four points worse recently.
Take one or the other, and you have Iowa State as a 14-to15-point favorite. Take both, and you look at the Cyclones as an 18 point favorite and a 90 percent chance of winning.
I’ll go with conservative and call this a ten-point spread and a 75% chance of winning.
(In my opinion.)
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