Up front, and for the record, I am Sgt. Schultz on this issue. I know nothing.
I do have some assumptions and guesses, some of which will be more accurate than others.
First, We are not going to stay at the New 12 (my designation). We may add, we may lose, we may do both. The results may be good or bad. Time will tell.
Second, money (revenue) will drive the changes. Media Revenues, of course, but, eventually it may also include game day and booster Revenue. [Ex: will doing x for Media Revenue negatively impact the game day experience and resulting revenue long term?]
Third, the Big Ten and SEC are the clear drivers of this effort. How long will they remain at 16 teams? If (when) they expand again where will they target?
The next tier of P5 Conferences are ACC, Big 12, and PAC 10. I renamed the Pac 10 to reflect it's known status at the end of next year.
Currently, the ACC has 14 P5 schools, a football affiliation wit ND, and a suffocating TV deal. The 2cConference Powerhouses, Clemson and FSU, apparently want out. The PAC 10 has 10 P5 schools, no real bell weathers, and no media interest, apparently. Possibly looking to add Mountain West teams. The Big 12 has 8 P5 teams, 4 new P5 teams with strong FB creds and 3 of the 4 with good to great FB creds.
Here is where it gets tricky. We are assuming that teams from the B1G and SEC are looking at teams from the ACC and PAC 10. It makes sense. Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA, UW, ORE, ND, Duke, Stanford (for example) have the combination of athletic prowess and AAU status (for B1G purposes) to get looks by one or the other. All of which leaves (potentially) 2 weakened Conferences that the Big 12 could pick off key, advantageous members.
It also leaves 2 Conferences in search of new members for survival, both of which would have only P5 teams as members. They could aggressively seek P5 schools (as opposed to new P5 schools) or some combination of both. I am concerned that we get too far over our skis, adding teams like SDSU and/or UNLV and/or San Jose State and basketball components like Gonzaga and Villanova, for example. Let's say, for sake of discussion, we add SDSU and UNLV for football and Gonzaga and Villinova for Basketball only. Then, in 6 years, the ACC loses FSU and Clemson to the SEC and UNC and UVA to the B1G while the PAC loses UW and ORE to the B1G.
My question would be if we are more likely to be in position to poach or to be poached? The SEC might be inclined to look at Football Centric Schools like OSU, KSU, or WVU. The Surviving ACC might look at Basketball Schools like Kansas, WVU, Iowa State.
My preference, I think, would be for the core Big 12 schools (ISU, KU, KSU, OSU) the four Texas Schools (Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston) find the best 8 ACC remaining schools, including Cincinnati and UCF, to form a very strong football and basketball Conference over only 2 time zones. Now obviously that flies in the face of Yormark's attempts to 4-time zone the Conference and build a basketball juggernaut. My fear is it will dilute our football status that we end up getting poached and that means uncertainty for ISU.
I would hope our targets would be current P5 for the time being. If it all blows apart, it would not, imo, to have6-8 of the most recent P5 additions in your 16 or so teams.