Prior to the Iowa game I noted that if you take away the two bookend losses that Iowa State had last year that the Cyclones played at a lower top-25 level on average. It just didn’t play much average.
But if that team could carry over its core performance into this year then we could, and probably should, see a lower top-25 team starting out. Of course, our linebacker play and injuries during the North Dakota game put a damper on our hopes that we would see that in the Iowa Game. But we did!
I also saw Iowa as a little better than a mid-thirties team, and right now they are power ranked 28th. But Iowa’s ranking has always tended to be boosted by their “over margins” against the lower portion of their schedule, and their performance doesn’t normally show up as well as their opponents get stronger, especially top-15 teams. (Which they play so few.)
So we’ll have to see how that plays out going forward. This year their overall schedule is not out of the ordinary average-wise, but they do have a few challenging teams on their schedule. Iowa plays at Minnesota this week, and that very much looks like a bellweather game for both teams. The Cygarin Ratings has it as a one-point game.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is currently ranked 21st and Iowa as a road opponent has an equivalent ranking of…wait for it ….21st. So beating a 21st equivalent team on the road by one point, with a 54 yard field goal, with six seconds on the clock…is about as according to Hoyle as you can get!
Because of the early bye, Iowa State has only two games to evaluate their performance so far, so it’s going to take a little more time to see what the consistency of this team is.
But beating Iowa on the road is at least a credible piece of data unless it is eventually deemed to be an outlier. I don’t think so, but we shall see.
The good news is that Iowa State’s schedule lays out about as good as good as one can expect in a major conference to allow for progressive improvement. More about that in future analysis.
For now, let’s just go with Iowa State appears to belong in the lower top-25 range, and I think they have a lot of upside to that eventually.
ARKANSAS STATE
Arkansas State is interesting, coming off a ten-point loss to 13th power ranked Michigan on the road. That is an impressive performance score-wise, which lifted their power ranking from a well into the sub-100’s to a lofty 89th.
I don’t buy it though.
Michigan was up 28-3 until late in the 4th quarter. And the Wolverine’s quarterback threw three picks before being yanked from the game. With the disparity of these two teams, that was potentially three more scores. So the game was really never that close, and should have been a route under normal circumstances.
Add to that the Red Wolves have played close games against unheralded Central Arkansas (102nd) and Tulsa (111th), I just don’t see this team being a monster killer. At least as long as the monsters play like they are supposed to play.
So I still see Arkansas State more in the 125th range than I do the lower top-100.
IOWA STATE VS. ARKANSAS STATE
To put some comparative perspective on this game Arkansas State is ranked 89th, and North Dakote is currently ranked 88th.
ND is doing good so far this year, and beat 8th FCS power ranked Montana State, and thumped 53rd FCS 58-28. So though I don’t think that North Dakota is the 88th best team in the country, they are definitely a lot better than the solid sub-100 ranking they were in the preseason rankings. Iowa State faced a pretty good early test.
So can we expect Arkansas State to be as good as North Dakota and therefore a closer game than Iowa State fans want? I think no…and yes.
No, I don’t think that Arkansas State poses the level of (minor) threat that North Dakota did, but I do think it is going to be closer than Iowa fans want. It’s just Campbell’s way of tuning up for conference, and I think there is still a lot of work to be done to maximize Iowa State’s potential.
And to be fair, Arkansas State is at least good enough to not roll over and play dead. The days of slobberknocking a sister of the poor just doesn’t happen much anymore.
Straight up, the Cyclones are favored by 19 points per the Cygarin Ratings. My opinion is that Arkansas State is about seven points worse than that, and that would suggest a 25-26 point win.
But I also think that Campbel will play this game at least seven points under our capability, if maximizing margin of victory was the objective of the game. Of course it isn’t.
So I’m going to use the potential 26 point win to determine our probability of winning, and that comes in at 97%.
But I’m also going to go conservative with the point spread, and will stick to believing it will all work out to being about a 19-20 point margin of victory. Or at least, that is what I anticipate the margin to be at the point in the game when the outcome margin-wise is well in hand, and the coaches are digging into the depth chart.
(In my opinion.)
But if that team could carry over its core performance into this year then we could, and probably should, see a lower top-25 team starting out. Of course, our linebacker play and injuries during the North Dakota game put a damper on our hopes that we would see that in the Iowa Game. But we did!
I also saw Iowa as a little better than a mid-thirties team, and right now they are power ranked 28th. But Iowa’s ranking has always tended to be boosted by their “over margins” against the lower portion of their schedule, and their performance doesn’t normally show up as well as their opponents get stronger, especially top-15 teams. (Which they play so few.)
So we’ll have to see how that plays out going forward. This year their overall schedule is not out of the ordinary average-wise, but they do have a few challenging teams on their schedule. Iowa plays at Minnesota this week, and that very much looks like a bellweather game for both teams. The Cygarin Ratings has it as a one-point game.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is currently ranked 21st and Iowa as a road opponent has an equivalent ranking of…wait for it ….21st. So beating a 21st equivalent team on the road by one point, with a 54 yard field goal, with six seconds on the clock…is about as according to Hoyle as you can get!
Because of the early bye, Iowa State has only two games to evaluate their performance so far, so it’s going to take a little more time to see what the consistency of this team is.
But beating Iowa on the road is at least a credible piece of data unless it is eventually deemed to be an outlier. I don’t think so, but we shall see.
The good news is that Iowa State’s schedule lays out about as good as good as one can expect in a major conference to allow for progressive improvement. More about that in future analysis.
For now, let’s just go with Iowa State appears to belong in the lower top-25 range, and I think they have a lot of upside to that eventually.
ARKANSAS STATE
Arkansas State is interesting, coming off a ten-point loss to 13th power ranked Michigan on the road. That is an impressive performance score-wise, which lifted their power ranking from a well into the sub-100’s to a lofty 89th.
I don’t buy it though.
Michigan was up 28-3 until late in the 4th quarter. And the Wolverine’s quarterback threw three picks before being yanked from the game. With the disparity of these two teams, that was potentially three more scores. So the game was really never that close, and should have been a route under normal circumstances.
Add to that the Red Wolves have played close games against unheralded Central Arkansas (102nd) and Tulsa (111th), I just don’t see this team being a monster killer. At least as long as the monsters play like they are supposed to play.
So I still see Arkansas State more in the 125th range than I do the lower top-100.
IOWA STATE VS. ARKANSAS STATE
To put some comparative perspective on this game Arkansas State is ranked 89th, and North Dakote is currently ranked 88th.
ND is doing good so far this year, and beat 8th FCS power ranked Montana State, and thumped 53rd FCS 58-28. So though I don’t think that North Dakota is the 88th best team in the country, they are definitely a lot better than the solid sub-100 ranking they were in the preseason rankings. Iowa State faced a pretty good early test.
So can we expect Arkansas State to be as good as North Dakota and therefore a closer game than Iowa State fans want? I think no…and yes.
No, I don’t think that Arkansas State poses the level of (minor) threat that North Dakota did, but I do think it is going to be closer than Iowa fans want. It’s just Campbell’s way of tuning up for conference, and I think there is still a lot of work to be done to maximize Iowa State’s potential.
And to be fair, Arkansas State is at least good enough to not roll over and play dead. The days of slobberknocking a sister of the poor just doesn’t happen much anymore.
Straight up, the Cyclones are favored by 19 points per the Cygarin Ratings. My opinion is that Arkansas State is about seven points worse than that, and that would suggest a 25-26 point win.
But I also think that Campbel will play this game at least seven points under our capability, if maximizing margin of victory was the objective of the game. Of course it isn’t.
So I’m going to use the potential 26 point win to determine our probability of winning, and that comes in at 97%.
But I’m also going to go conservative with the point spread, and will stick to believing it will all work out to being about a 19-20 point margin of victory. Or at least, that is what I anticipate the margin to be at the point in the game when the outcome margin-wise is well in hand, and the coaches are digging into the depth chart.
(In my opinion.)
