It’s Week 7 of the 2024 college football season. Will history be made by Iowa State? It’s possible. Perhaps even probable. But hardly a sure thing.
Usually by this point in the season a reasonable bell curve has been established, and the have’s of the college football world are obvious, and so are the have nots. In between are those teams that duke it out for a winning season and making bowl games.
This year has seen the bell curve really tighten up, and games such as Alabama-Vanderbilt are showing that the “have nots” are not so “nots” and are capable of beating even the best teams in the nation. The Big-12 has even more parity than other conferences, and that applies with emphasis to the Iowa State at West Virginia tilt.
So here goes…..
WEST VIRGINIA
A couple days ago we went out of our way to talk about Oklahoma State, a team we don’t even play. Now you’ll see why….
Currently West Virginia is ranked 24th by Sagarin and 20th by Sagarin’s “Recent”. Other power rankings such as Massey have them ranked similarly. That is suggesting that Mountaineers are pretty darned good and trending better.
Beating any Top-20 team at home, even by a Top-10 team is a daunting task, so this would suggest that the Cyclones will have their hands full, and they most certainly will.
But the Cygarin Ratings see a little bit of a chink in their armor.
The Mountaineers’ Oklahoma State win is the only win of the entire season where they have performed above their current power rating, doing so by a lofty 18 points. Up until then they had no upward trend whatsoever. Indeed, if anything it was a very slight down trend.
After evaluating Oklahoma State, their analysis indicates that OSU is way overrated and tanking as the season progresses, culminating in the near absentee loss to West Virginia. Thus that game isn’t really indicative of anything West Virginia-wise. It only means that Gundy’s Guys have been uncharacteristically awful and getting awfuller.
I noted above that WVU was slightly down trending, but it’s really minor, almost imperceptible. It’s better to just call it flat.
The Mountaineers did have a rough start in the season opener against (9th) Penn State at home and were taken to the woodshed 34-12. They should have lost by only two or three based on their current rating. (A note here to say that Penn State and Iowa State are similarly rated.)
After that though, they stayed within three points of their predicted margin against (180th) Albany, (36th) Pitt, and (62nd) Kansas, always to the low side… until they thumped the Pokeys.
Looking at WVU’s trend against the strength of schedule, and throwing out OSU, the Mountaineers show a bit of a downward trend towards stronger opponents, emphasized by their large early loss to Penn State.
So what does it all suggest about West Virginia? Two things that I see…
First, West Virginia’s season-long performance seems mostly consistently flat. But it’s flat at a performance level of 40th, not 24th. That said, that there isn’t much difference between 20th and 40th this year. But every little bit helps.
The other thing I see is a slight downward trend against a stronger strength of schedule, as do most teams. The question though is how much of an anomaly is the Penn State loss, noting that it was the first game of the year. Penn State been solidly beating other teams comparable to WVU, so that suggests that it may not that much of an outlier, at least from a Penn State perspective.
So minimally the Penn State loss can properly be characterized as another “below their rating” performance, which makes it 4 out of 5 this year for the Mountaineers, with the Okie State an outlier for reasons not related to West Virginia.
Soo…..
What I see in West Virginia is a solid 40th ranked team who is playing very consistently to that rating most of the time…and if anything, plays a little worse against better ranked teams.
More than anything though, is that….so far anyway…they have not played above their ranking. (Except OSU.)
IOWA STATE
I ain’t gonna lie…analyzing Iowa State scares me. Is Iowa State for real? It'stToo soon to tell because we have not played a strong strength of schedule.
Sagarin Predictor has Iowa State ranked 11th in the country, 9th in Recent, and 6th in Strong Recent. That’s lofty stuff for our beloved Cyclones. Sagarin suggests the Clones keep getting better in early conference play, which is typical of Cambell coached teams.
The Cygarin Ratings analysis agrees with Sagarin, but with a caveat. The Cyclones have played one of the weaker strengths of schedule in the county so far (51st), with the only top-50 test being Iowa.
So how well have we really been tested? And is our power rating inflated as a result of playing weaker teams? And if so, how much?
The Houston and Baylor margins of victory both stand as performances ten points over our rating. That is why we are trending up. Add ten points to an 11th ranking and that puts the “recent” Cyclones’ performance over that of the No. 1 team in the country.
But that does not necessarily mean that Iowa State can play at that level when up against top-25 opponents.
Most years I wouldn’t consider our performances against Baylor and Houston as diddly. But both teams have risen some in the recent rankings, with Baylor creeping up to 54th, and Houston up to 70th. This year, 50th and 70th teams are fully capable of playing with higher ranked teams. Indeed, Baylor at West Virginia would be inside of a 3-point spread.
So I think to some degree, our performances against Baylor and Houston matter. At least as they apply to playing a West Virginia caliber team this week.
Iowa is Iowa State’s only real test so far against top-50 teams, with the Hawks currently ranked 20th. I do think Iowa’s ranking is valid against teams that are not Top-5.
So Iowa State has proven, at least once, that it can play at or above their ranking against top-25 caliber opponents on the road. Which adjusted for home field advantage is about a top-13 equivalent opponent.
If I was going to make an adjustment to Iowa State’s Cygarin rating for the current moment, it would be up by as much as 3 or 4 points. But tweaking up a team already in the top-15 gets a little dicey, so let’s just say that Cyclones may be deserving of a point or two, but let’s leave it alone and keep them where they are at.
At issue though is…is West Virginia closer to being an “Iowa” caliber opponent, or being a “Baylor” caliber opponent? As it stands, the Cygarin Ratings has them almost exactly in-between, and that is an area of untested territory for the Cyclones.
IOWA STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA
The Cygarin Ratings has this a 3-point game favoring the Cyclones, with a 59% chance of winning.
The statistical intangibles (an oxymoron) all seem to favor Iowa State…
Iowa State appears to be able to make a case that they are playing better than their current ranking. Plus, Iowa State has already notched a top-level victory, whereas West Virginia has not.
West Virginia is showing the opposite, they are playing right their power rating recently at best, and if anything slightly below that overall rating.
WVU is still good and formidable, but if Iowa State is truly a top-15 team, the trends suggest that the Mountain Boys will have a hard time playing above their ranking. In Cygarin’s book, though they are more battle tested (14th ranked SOS), but haven’t notched a top-70 win yet.
With the lone exception of Oklahoma State, which I think is a major anomaly…West Virginia has not shown to have fluctuating performances that may suggest that a “good” game could bite the Cyclones in the behind. But again…the Oklahoma thumping is there.
Fo Iowa State, North Dakota is the only performance so far this year that is below their current ranking. Whereby for West Virginia, OSU is the only performance above.
In summary….
So far this year, Iowa State notched every win with one half of their game tied behind their backs. If Cyclones could ever put two halves of football together in the same game, it could be quite a sight to see.
On the other hand, a half of limited football every game goes to show that Cyclones may be capable of two halves of bad football in any one game, and that wouldn’t be pretty.
As much as I would like to slap some favoring intangibles onto Iowa State’s margin in this game, I’m sticking with the Cyclones being favored by three, and have a 59% probability of winning in the Mountains.
Let’s hope that this is a game that at least some of the intangibles show to be tangible, and we come back to flat country with a win.
(In my opinion)
Usually by this point in the season a reasonable bell curve has been established, and the have’s of the college football world are obvious, and so are the have nots. In between are those teams that duke it out for a winning season and making bowl games.
This year has seen the bell curve really tighten up, and games such as Alabama-Vanderbilt are showing that the “have nots” are not so “nots” and are capable of beating even the best teams in the nation. The Big-12 has even more parity than other conferences, and that applies with emphasis to the Iowa State at West Virginia tilt.
So here goes…..
WEST VIRGINIA
A couple days ago we went out of our way to talk about Oklahoma State, a team we don’t even play. Now you’ll see why….
Currently West Virginia is ranked 24th by Sagarin and 20th by Sagarin’s “Recent”. Other power rankings such as Massey have them ranked similarly. That is suggesting that Mountaineers are pretty darned good and trending better.
Beating any Top-20 team at home, even by a Top-10 team is a daunting task, so this would suggest that the Cyclones will have their hands full, and they most certainly will.
But the Cygarin Ratings see a little bit of a chink in their armor.
The Mountaineers’ Oklahoma State win is the only win of the entire season where they have performed above their current power rating, doing so by a lofty 18 points. Up until then they had no upward trend whatsoever. Indeed, if anything it was a very slight down trend.
After evaluating Oklahoma State, their analysis indicates that OSU is way overrated and tanking as the season progresses, culminating in the near absentee loss to West Virginia. Thus that game isn’t really indicative of anything West Virginia-wise. It only means that Gundy’s Guys have been uncharacteristically awful and getting awfuller.
I noted above that WVU was slightly down trending, but it’s really minor, almost imperceptible. It’s better to just call it flat.
The Mountaineers did have a rough start in the season opener against (9th) Penn State at home and were taken to the woodshed 34-12. They should have lost by only two or three based on their current rating. (A note here to say that Penn State and Iowa State are similarly rated.)
After that though, they stayed within three points of their predicted margin against (180th) Albany, (36th) Pitt, and (62nd) Kansas, always to the low side… until they thumped the Pokeys.
Looking at WVU’s trend against the strength of schedule, and throwing out OSU, the Mountaineers show a bit of a downward trend towards stronger opponents, emphasized by their large early loss to Penn State.
So what does it all suggest about West Virginia? Two things that I see…
First, West Virginia’s season-long performance seems mostly consistently flat. But it’s flat at a performance level of 40th, not 24th. That said, that there isn’t much difference between 20th and 40th this year. But every little bit helps.
The other thing I see is a slight downward trend against a stronger strength of schedule, as do most teams. The question though is how much of an anomaly is the Penn State loss, noting that it was the first game of the year. Penn State been solidly beating other teams comparable to WVU, so that suggests that it may not that much of an outlier, at least from a Penn State perspective.
So minimally the Penn State loss can properly be characterized as another “below their rating” performance, which makes it 4 out of 5 this year for the Mountaineers, with the Okie State an outlier for reasons not related to West Virginia.
Soo…..
What I see in West Virginia is a solid 40th ranked team who is playing very consistently to that rating most of the time…and if anything, plays a little worse against better ranked teams.
More than anything though, is that….so far anyway…they have not played above their ranking. (Except OSU.)
IOWA STATE
I ain’t gonna lie…analyzing Iowa State scares me. Is Iowa State for real? It'stToo soon to tell because we have not played a strong strength of schedule.
Sagarin Predictor has Iowa State ranked 11th in the country, 9th in Recent, and 6th in Strong Recent. That’s lofty stuff for our beloved Cyclones. Sagarin suggests the Clones keep getting better in early conference play, which is typical of Cambell coached teams.
The Cygarin Ratings analysis agrees with Sagarin, but with a caveat. The Cyclones have played one of the weaker strengths of schedule in the county so far (51st), with the only top-50 test being Iowa.
So how well have we really been tested? And is our power rating inflated as a result of playing weaker teams? And if so, how much?
The Houston and Baylor margins of victory both stand as performances ten points over our rating. That is why we are trending up. Add ten points to an 11th ranking and that puts the “recent” Cyclones’ performance over that of the No. 1 team in the country.
But that does not necessarily mean that Iowa State can play at that level when up against top-25 opponents.
Most years I wouldn’t consider our performances against Baylor and Houston as diddly. But both teams have risen some in the recent rankings, with Baylor creeping up to 54th, and Houston up to 70th. This year, 50th and 70th teams are fully capable of playing with higher ranked teams. Indeed, Baylor at West Virginia would be inside of a 3-point spread.
So I think to some degree, our performances against Baylor and Houston matter. At least as they apply to playing a West Virginia caliber team this week.
Iowa is Iowa State’s only real test so far against top-50 teams, with the Hawks currently ranked 20th. I do think Iowa’s ranking is valid against teams that are not Top-5.
So Iowa State has proven, at least once, that it can play at or above their ranking against top-25 caliber opponents on the road. Which adjusted for home field advantage is about a top-13 equivalent opponent.
If I was going to make an adjustment to Iowa State’s Cygarin rating for the current moment, it would be up by as much as 3 or 4 points. But tweaking up a team already in the top-15 gets a little dicey, so let’s just say that Cyclones may be deserving of a point or two, but let’s leave it alone and keep them where they are at.
At issue though is…is West Virginia closer to being an “Iowa” caliber opponent, or being a “Baylor” caliber opponent? As it stands, the Cygarin Ratings has them almost exactly in-between, and that is an area of untested territory for the Cyclones.
IOWA STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA
The Cygarin Ratings has this a 3-point game favoring the Cyclones, with a 59% chance of winning.
The statistical intangibles (an oxymoron) all seem to favor Iowa State…
Iowa State appears to be able to make a case that they are playing better than their current ranking. Plus, Iowa State has already notched a top-level victory, whereas West Virginia has not.
West Virginia is showing the opposite, they are playing right their power rating recently at best, and if anything slightly below that overall rating.
WVU is still good and formidable, but if Iowa State is truly a top-15 team, the trends suggest that the Mountain Boys will have a hard time playing above their ranking. In Cygarin’s book, though they are more battle tested (14th ranked SOS), but haven’t notched a top-70 win yet.
With the lone exception of Oklahoma State, which I think is a major anomaly…West Virginia has not shown to have fluctuating performances that may suggest that a “good” game could bite the Cyclones in the behind. But again…the Oklahoma thumping is there.
Fo Iowa State, North Dakota is the only performance so far this year that is below their current ranking. Whereby for West Virginia, OSU is the only performance above.
In summary….
So far this year, Iowa State notched every win with one half of their game tied behind their backs. If Cyclones could ever put two halves of football together in the same game, it could be quite a sight to see.
On the other hand, a half of limited football every game goes to show that Cyclones may be capable of two halves of bad football in any one game, and that wouldn’t be pretty.
As much as I would like to slap some favoring intangibles onto Iowa State’s margin in this game, I’m sticking with the Cyclones being favored by three, and have a 59% probability of winning in the Mountains.
Let’s hope that this is a game that at least some of the intangibles show to be tangible, and we come back to flat country with a win.
(In my opinion)
