The Cygarin Ratings suggest Iowa State to be a solid 6-point favorite against BYU this week, and arguably I could tweak that up a bit more. That reflects a 66% chance of winning.
BYU has had only one meaningful game this season (Texas Tech) where they played more than six points better than their ranking. That means that they have had only one game where their performance would have beaten Iowa State’s average performance. (Mistakes included in that performance rating.)
So once again, if Iowa State can find a way to avoid making touchdown-costing mistakes…we have the potential to win this game by hefty double digits. Of course, Iowa State has shown that they have a hard time doing that.
I said the same thing about Kansas and the J’s are a lot better than BYU. And even though we played poorly against a very good Kansas team (and very poor refs) we still would have won (perhaps walked away with) the game had it not been for three mistakes that cost us 7 points each: One by the offense, one by the defense, and one by the blind...or corrupt…referee.
BYU is power ranked 65th in the country, about the same as Baylor. Their performance this year shows no glaring trend other than being up and down week to week, more down than up.
Their best game of the year against a relevant team occurred three games ago with a two-touchdown over-performance against Texas Tech. But in their three games before that and two games after that, three of those games were notably below their performance rating and two were about right at it. So according to Hoyle, if we play at least to our wart-tarnished, six-point spread we win, though BYU can pull off a Texas Tech performance and/or Iowa State multiple game scoring mistakes again.
The media has also made note that BYU is undefeated at home. This is true, but all four of their home wins came against the four easiest teams on their strength of schedule so far, with none of those teams being in the top two-thirds of the conference, or non-conference equivalent.
I don’t see any indication of a home field advantage, and Massey Ratings too indicates that it is is a bit below normal…only about two and a half points. (Normal is about three to three and a quarter) So home field advantage itself is nothing to fear.
Iowa State has shown a dip in performance the last couple of games (based on score), but anybody who watched those games saw a better fundamental team than what the score differential indicated. It’s the mistakes, not the performance, and therein lies the storyline of Iowa State this year.
As I see it, this comes down to being another game where Iowa State’s major mistakes likely decide whether they win or lose it. And even though this young team has matured impressively since the beginning of the season, you just can’t take the “young” out of a young team in just half of a season.
There is the matter that both teams are playing for bowl eligibility, and this is by far the best chance, and possibly last chance for either team to do so, considering the rest of each team’s respective schedule. So both teams should be up for a hard fight, and it is easier for the team that has their fans cheering for them.
In the bigger picture, Iowa State still appears to fundamentally be a top-tier conference team but is, and probably will continue to be, a team that gets handicapped by major score-changing mistakes. Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas stand as examples of how impactful major mistakes are to final scores, all impacting Iowa State’s power rating.
With mistakes included, Iowa State appears to be playing at a lower top-25 level right now. I honestly believe that playing cleaner would make us at least a 14-point better power rated team....and that is some very serious performance potential if we can ever accomplish it against any team we have yet to this year.
(In my opinion.)
Personal note:
I am humbled by those of you who have continued to show support for the Cygarin Ratings even though I haven’t posted in about three years. Times have changed and I don’t know how much of my busy retired time can be contributed to doing this on a regular basis. Life was much simpler and less burdened when I had a job. Or at least what I called a job despite what others claimed.
Not that it is relevant to this Cygarin Ratings post, but I am currently blessed in retirement (mostly retired anyway) to enjoy wonderful and healthy family and friends, and my way too many activities and hobbies I dabble with.
But most especially, I would suggest you extend a thanks to Bill who personally reached out to me to ask me to reconsider posting the Cygarin Ratings on your behalf. Bill has your back, and the tremendous job he does for this board and website cannot be overstated, nor should it ever be under-appreciated. Which is the reason that I’m willing to give it another try.
Let’s just see how things go…
Cygarin
