I went through and analyzed the EC votes from this election and updated it for the apportionment(estimate) coming in 2040. Based upon the states each party won this time, the EC vote changes from the current 312-226 to 325-213. Yes, the 2040 apportionment is expected to move 13 EC votes from the blue states to the red states. In fact, if I throw out the blue wall states and Arizona and Nevada, all states won by the GOP, the GOP is already starting the EC vote count at 263 from deep red states. They are just 6 votes from winning, before they even start (remember the GOP only needs 269 to win, then dems need 270 to win). By the time the 2050 Apportionment comes around, I expect another 10-15 EC votes to be shifted to Deep red states, which likely means the dems have no reasonable path to victory, they will need to flip a deep red state. I think that very shortly the democratic strategy to dump illegals into red states is going to switch, to dumping illegals into the blue states. Another strategy for Dems is to embrace deportation, in the hopes that the loss of population in red states will bring EC votes back to the blue states. The blue states need to have a huge expansion of the population in those states to turn the tide of their loss of congressional seats. By 2050, Texas will have more EC votes than California, and Florida will be getting close to California.
The EC math is going to get a whole lot harder for the Democrats in 2040.
- Thread starter CeMar_Clone
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