Understanding this topic is not at the top of most people's priority list, I share some analysis anyway. There's some tidbits regarding TOE that I think many of you will appreciate, most especially to those of us who live in Eastern Iowa and have to endure those varmints.
IOWA
Iowa this year was the classic of all classic Kirk Ferentz football teams, with the exception that Iowa did not have it's usual and customary major upset win nor it's "came out flat" upset loss.
The story line with the Hawks is they played a strength of schedule ranked 50th by Sagarin and 39th by Massey. Iowa played only two top-40 opponents and not a single top-20 opponent the entire season, yet Iowa still lost four games.
Iowa's best win of the season (Iowa State requires a footnote) was 49th power ranked Minnesota on the road, which adjusted for home field advantage is about a 40th ranked equivalent opponent.
Iowa's worst loss was to 28th Wisconsin at home, which adjusted for home field advantage is also about a 40th ranked equivalent opponent.
Summarily, based on who they beat and who they lost to... Iowa is about as precise and perfect as a team can get in being exactly a 40th power ranked team.
Yet Iowa is ranked 11th by Sagarin and in the top-25 by most rankings of all kinds.
The reason for that is that that two-thirds of Iowa's schedule was against sub-40 equivalent teams, and against those teams Iowa averaged playing 15 points better than a team ranked 40th.
And conversely, against the one-third of their games against top-40 equivalent opponents...Iowa played about three points below a top-40 team, which resulted in all losses.
Clearly and simply.….Iowa plays like a top-15 team only against sub-40 teams, but cannot duplicate that same level of performance when that actually play a top-40 team. The difference in performance between playing top-40 and sub-40 opponents is a whopping 18 points!
The over abundance of sub-40 opponents which Iowa over performed against.... heavily tipped the power rating scales to perceive them to be MUCH better than what they were went the needed it to matter.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State is ranked 7th by Sagarin against the 34th ranked strength of schedule in the country. They are ranked in the top-15 by most, and top-20 of nearly all ranking systems.
The Bulldogs have played a different type of schedule than Iowa has, having played six top-40 opponents, five of those being top-15. Not surprisingly their four losses came from those five top-15 opponents, but they did find a win against 14th ranked Texas A&M at home.
That said, MSU's bottom half of the schedule was all against sub-60 ranked opponents, which the Dogs had no trouble taking care of business.
We have to be careful evaluating MSU's performance because arguably they had only one top-60 win. They simply didn't play anybody between the 60's and the 20's. It could be possible that their rating is similar to Iowa's and came from over scoring against a weaker lower half schedule.
However, the trend analysis indicates that is not the case. Both the season-long performance graph and the performance against the strength of schedule indicates that MSU performed at the same level no matter who the played nor when the played them. They just came up short against most four top-10 "equivalent" teams they played...at Alabama, at LSU, at Kentucky, and Florida at home.
By most indications, only lacking more data points in the 15th through 25th range to more validate their rating, Mississippi State is indeed that top-15 opponent they rankings suggest they are.
SUMMARY
It is possible that Mississippi State is a paper tiger, and got lucky with a win against a top-15 opponent.
Also, I have always said that give Kirk three weeks to prepare for any team, and he can give them a hell of a game. That hasn't turned out to be true any time this year though.
Mississippi State is by FAR the best team Iowa plays this year, by a full eight points. I would be a bit surprised if Iowa hangs with the Bulldogs, but if they do I would be very surprised they can beat them.
I have Mississippi State favored by 11 points, and a 79% chance if winning.
(In my opinion.)
IOWA
Iowa this year was the classic of all classic Kirk Ferentz football teams, with the exception that Iowa did not have it's usual and customary major upset win nor it's "came out flat" upset loss.
The story line with the Hawks is they played a strength of schedule ranked 50th by Sagarin and 39th by Massey. Iowa played only two top-40 opponents and not a single top-20 opponent the entire season, yet Iowa still lost four games.
Iowa's best win of the season (Iowa State requires a footnote) was 49th power ranked Minnesota on the road, which adjusted for home field advantage is about a 40th ranked equivalent opponent.
Iowa's worst loss was to 28th Wisconsin at home, which adjusted for home field advantage is also about a 40th ranked equivalent opponent.
Summarily, based on who they beat and who they lost to... Iowa is about as precise and perfect as a team can get in being exactly a 40th power ranked team.
Yet Iowa is ranked 11th by Sagarin and in the top-25 by most rankings of all kinds.
The reason for that is that that two-thirds of Iowa's schedule was against sub-40 equivalent teams, and against those teams Iowa averaged playing 15 points better than a team ranked 40th.
And conversely, against the one-third of their games against top-40 equivalent opponents...Iowa played about three points below a top-40 team, which resulted in all losses.
Clearly and simply.….Iowa plays like a top-15 team only against sub-40 teams, but cannot duplicate that same level of performance when that actually play a top-40 team. The difference in performance between playing top-40 and sub-40 opponents is a whopping 18 points!
The over abundance of sub-40 opponents which Iowa over performed against.... heavily tipped the power rating scales to perceive them to be MUCH better than what they were went the needed it to matter.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State is ranked 7th by Sagarin against the 34th ranked strength of schedule in the country. They are ranked in the top-15 by most, and top-20 of nearly all ranking systems.
The Bulldogs have played a different type of schedule than Iowa has, having played six top-40 opponents, five of those being top-15. Not surprisingly their four losses came from those five top-15 opponents, but they did find a win against 14th ranked Texas A&M at home.
That said, MSU's bottom half of the schedule was all against sub-60 ranked opponents, which the Dogs had no trouble taking care of business.
We have to be careful evaluating MSU's performance because arguably they had only one top-60 win. They simply didn't play anybody between the 60's and the 20's. It could be possible that their rating is similar to Iowa's and came from over scoring against a weaker lower half schedule.
However, the trend analysis indicates that is not the case. Both the season-long performance graph and the performance against the strength of schedule indicates that MSU performed at the same level no matter who the played nor when the played them. They just came up short against most four top-10 "equivalent" teams they played...at Alabama, at LSU, at Kentucky, and Florida at home.
By most indications, only lacking more data points in the 15th through 25th range to more validate their rating, Mississippi State is indeed that top-15 opponent they rankings suggest they are.
SUMMARY
It is possible that Mississippi State is a paper tiger, and got lucky with a win against a top-15 opponent.
Also, I have always said that give Kirk three weeks to prepare for any team, and he can give them a hell of a game. That hasn't turned out to be true any time this year though.
Mississippi State is by FAR the best team Iowa plays this year, by a full eight points. I would be a bit surprised if Iowa hangs with the Bulldogs, but if they do I would be very surprised they can beat them.
I have Mississippi State favored by 11 points, and a 79% chance if winning.
(In my opinion.)
