The Cygarin Ratings have been updated. Boy is there a lot of to talk about. Let's start with the conference....
The Big-12 is the near consensus No. 1 conference in the country, and they do so with a fairly comfortable margin. The SEC is No. 2, and the Big-12 is above them by nearly a field goal per team. That's quite a difference between No. 1 and No. 2 top to bottom.
Give the SEC the nod at the upper end of the strength spectrum, but not as much as perceived, considering how many more teams the SEC has. Oklahoma and Baylor are nothing to sneeze at, and that represents 20% of our conference.
What makes a difference between those in the SEC and the Big-12 is the strength of schedule the top teams are forced to play. Alabama and LSU have SOS's ranked 40th and 64th respectively....compared to the worst SOS played by any Big-12 team being 31st.
Indeed, four teams in the Big-12 play a top-10 SOS.
Having watched the Cygarin Ratings for years, I have come to learn that a team's success is based far more on the SOS than it is their own abilities. No matter how good a team is, it has it's performance ups and downs, and there will always be an "average" performance over the year.
That is...….it is impossible to have an "above average" performance every game, all year long against a "well above average " strength of schedule. Eventually, you are going to lose....as did OU this year and OSU in 2011, as huge examples.
It comes as no surprise (to me anyway) than none of the top-4 teams in the country have not played a top-45 strength of schedule.
What the Big-12 has, is remarkable high level depth, not just "average" depth. There are no sub-100 teams in the conference, and indeed Kansas is the lowest team at 78th. Just above that you have Texas Tech and West Virginia at 45th and 62nd respectively.
To put that in perspective...In 2009 Iowa State went to a bowl ranked lower that TTU and WVU and beat another team rated lower than TTU and WVU I in that bowl (Minnesota).
It is the top-7 teams in the conference that is the major story: Seven teams....seventy percent of the conference ....are ranked 27th or higher. That is unheard of!
As a result of that....one-half of the teams in the Big-12 conference have top-10 strength of schedules.
Think about that.....one half of the smallest conference in the country......has one half of the top-10 SOS's in the entire country!
Another way to appreciate that strength is to look at the impact of road games. All but three road game venues in the conference are solid top-20, and most are solid top-15.
So to summarize the Big-12...it is a massive Mexican shootout where you have seven top-27 teams playing each other week in and week out. Records are not going to indicate how good these teams are.
And now, a note about the Cygarin Ratings Theorem......
The Cygarin Ratings Theorem has been in full effect with Iowa State this year. Which states.....
It is nearly impossible to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule unless you are a top-25 power rated yourself.
Iowa State has played many top-25 SOS's over the years as a product of the Big-12 being top conference in the country, the round robin scheduling, and playing Iowa. But has never cracked the top-25 since Earl Bruce, and resultantly not had a winning record.
This is the first year since the Earl Bruce era that Iowa State has played a top-25 SOS and had a winning record! No matter what happens in Manhattan...Iowa State will have played a top-10 SOS, be ranked in the top-25, and have at lease seven wins.
As it stands right now the Clones are undefeated against all opponents ranked 28th or lower (adjusted for home field advantage), and are 1-4 against all teams ranked 27th and higher. Straight up, Iowa State is undefeated against all sub-21 teams and 1-4 against top-20.
Worth noting is that if Iowa State beats Kansas State, and barring a major upset....there will have been only three (adjusted) victories in the conference by a team other than OU: KSU over OU, OSU over @ISU, and Baylor over @OSU.
KANSAS STATE
The Big-12's strength has masked how good teams are within it, and KSU is perhaps the one that has been masked the most.
The Cats have suffered a hit and miss record that shows that they have won and lost across the entire conference spectrum more than any other team, with their worst loss beinn a road loss to WVU.
But of course, they also beat Oklahoma. I see Kansas State as being the opposite of Baylor in the luck category. Baylor has been undeniably the luckiest team on the conference overall, and KSU having been arguably the unluckiest.
But in all due respect, other than luck I see almost no difference between Baylor or KSU.
The Wildcats are power ranked 25th by Sagarin, and a little lower with others. But the trends show them to be playing better than that. Not unlike Iowa State, KSU has tended to come up just short many times.
The season long trend show that they have been playing five to ten points above their ranking over the last several recent games, with the exception of the WVU loss. By all indications, that loss should be considered an anomaly, and represents one of only two games where KSU has played below their power ranking.
Also, KSU's performance against the strength of schedule is concerning, showing that the Cats have been playing somewhat above their rating against stronger teams as well.
Both graphs show their ups and downs, which explains (or is a product of) their record across the spectrum.
Summarily, I honestly do not see how KSU is ranked where they are. As noted, only two games all season are below their current power ranking. That along is deeply bothersome.
I would rate KSU overall as being about five points better than their ranking at this point in the season ,and against Iowa State caliber teams. That would put the Wildcats right at 15th in the country, and with home field advantage a top-10 equivalent opponent.
A troublesome analysis indeed.
IOWA STATE
I'm worried. I see the tail end of the annual inverted bathtub curve in full effect. We appear to be in a downward trend, once again. Three of our last four games have been performed below our power rating.
The exception is OU, but if you evaluate the first three quarters of that game...it was not only below our rating, but well below. I have a hard time considering just one quarter out of the last sixteen as an offset for the other fifteen. (To be fair, not all fifteen have been bad.)
As it stands, the OSU and KU low performances are just as pronounced as good performances against Texas and Oklahoma.
Let's be perfectly clear though. Iowa State's performance is relative...this is good, bordering on great team! Even with it's downward trend...that down side of Iowa State is still better than recent history.
However so, is the rest of the conference, and that includes Kansas State this week.
SUMMARY
Clearly, no matter how one evaluates the trends, this is game where it all depends on luck, breaks, which teams shows up...and of course the referees.
I see this as our second toughest game of the year, even tougher than Baylor, and approaching OU. Granted, we played both of those teams tough. But in the end they were still loses....as has been every effort against top-20 equivalent opponents.
To beat KSU would be a huge feat....and the best accomplishment of the season so far. It would take all the muster of our best performances of the season....PLUS luck and the refs falling our way. That is something we don't see when we played Kansas State.
Overall, because of the trends, I see KSU as the favorite here, and by as much as five points. That gives the Cats about a 65% chance of winning tomorrow.....or about 2 to 1 odds against us. That is not counting the refs.
Hopefully, I'm wrong.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
The Big-12 is the near consensus No. 1 conference in the country, and they do so with a fairly comfortable margin. The SEC is No. 2, and the Big-12 is above them by nearly a field goal per team. That's quite a difference between No. 1 and No. 2 top to bottom.
Give the SEC the nod at the upper end of the strength spectrum, but not as much as perceived, considering how many more teams the SEC has. Oklahoma and Baylor are nothing to sneeze at, and that represents 20% of our conference.
What makes a difference between those in the SEC and the Big-12 is the strength of schedule the top teams are forced to play. Alabama and LSU have SOS's ranked 40th and 64th respectively....compared to the worst SOS played by any Big-12 team being 31st.
Indeed, four teams in the Big-12 play a top-10 SOS.
Having watched the Cygarin Ratings for years, I have come to learn that a team's success is based far more on the SOS than it is their own abilities. No matter how good a team is, it has it's performance ups and downs, and there will always be an "average" performance over the year.
That is...….it is impossible to have an "above average" performance every game, all year long against a "well above average " strength of schedule. Eventually, you are going to lose....as did OU this year and OSU in 2011, as huge examples.
It comes as no surprise (to me anyway) than none of the top-4 teams in the country have not played a top-45 strength of schedule.
What the Big-12 has, is remarkable high level depth, not just "average" depth. There are no sub-100 teams in the conference, and indeed Kansas is the lowest team at 78th. Just above that you have Texas Tech and West Virginia at 45th and 62nd respectively.
To put that in perspective...In 2009 Iowa State went to a bowl ranked lower that TTU and WVU and beat another team rated lower than TTU and WVU I in that bowl (Minnesota).
It is the top-7 teams in the conference that is the major story: Seven teams....seventy percent of the conference ....are ranked 27th or higher. That is unheard of!
As a result of that....one-half of the teams in the Big-12 conference have top-10 strength of schedules.
Think about that.....one half of the smallest conference in the country......has one half of the top-10 SOS's in the entire country!
Another way to appreciate that strength is to look at the impact of road games. All but three road game venues in the conference are solid top-20, and most are solid top-15.
So to summarize the Big-12...it is a massive Mexican shootout where you have seven top-27 teams playing each other week in and week out. Records are not going to indicate how good these teams are.
And now, a note about the Cygarin Ratings Theorem......
The Cygarin Ratings Theorem has been in full effect with Iowa State this year. Which states.....
It is nearly impossible to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule unless you are a top-25 power rated yourself.
Iowa State has played many top-25 SOS's over the years as a product of the Big-12 being top conference in the country, the round robin scheduling, and playing Iowa. But has never cracked the top-25 since Earl Bruce, and resultantly not had a winning record.
This is the first year since the Earl Bruce era that Iowa State has played a top-25 SOS and had a winning record! No matter what happens in Manhattan...Iowa State will have played a top-10 SOS, be ranked in the top-25, and have at lease seven wins.
As it stands right now the Clones are undefeated against all opponents ranked 28th or lower (adjusted for home field advantage), and are 1-4 against all teams ranked 27th and higher. Straight up, Iowa State is undefeated against all sub-21 teams and 1-4 against top-20.
Worth noting is that if Iowa State beats Kansas State, and barring a major upset....there will have been only three (adjusted) victories in the conference by a team other than OU: KSU over OU, OSU over @ISU, and Baylor over @OSU.
KANSAS STATE
The Big-12's strength has masked how good teams are within it, and KSU is perhaps the one that has been masked the most.
The Cats have suffered a hit and miss record that shows that they have won and lost across the entire conference spectrum more than any other team, with their worst loss beinn a road loss to WVU.
But of course, they also beat Oklahoma. I see Kansas State as being the opposite of Baylor in the luck category. Baylor has been undeniably the luckiest team on the conference overall, and KSU having been arguably the unluckiest.
But in all due respect, other than luck I see almost no difference between Baylor or KSU.
The Wildcats are power ranked 25th by Sagarin, and a little lower with others. But the trends show them to be playing better than that. Not unlike Iowa State, KSU has tended to come up just short many times.
The season long trend show that they have been playing five to ten points above their ranking over the last several recent games, with the exception of the WVU loss. By all indications, that loss should be considered an anomaly, and represents one of only two games where KSU has played below their power ranking.
Also, KSU's performance against the strength of schedule is concerning, showing that the Cats have been playing somewhat above their rating against stronger teams as well.
Both graphs show their ups and downs, which explains (or is a product of) their record across the spectrum.
Summarily, I honestly do not see how KSU is ranked where they are. As noted, only two games all season are below their current power ranking. That along is deeply bothersome.
I would rate KSU overall as being about five points better than their ranking at this point in the season ,and against Iowa State caliber teams. That would put the Wildcats right at 15th in the country, and with home field advantage a top-10 equivalent opponent.
A troublesome analysis indeed.
IOWA STATE
I'm worried. I see the tail end of the annual inverted bathtub curve in full effect. We appear to be in a downward trend, once again. Three of our last four games have been performed below our power rating.
The exception is OU, but if you evaluate the first three quarters of that game...it was not only below our rating, but well below. I have a hard time considering just one quarter out of the last sixteen as an offset for the other fifteen. (To be fair, not all fifteen have been bad.)
As it stands, the OSU and KU low performances are just as pronounced as good performances against Texas and Oklahoma.
Let's be perfectly clear though. Iowa State's performance is relative...this is good, bordering on great team! Even with it's downward trend...that down side of Iowa State is still better than recent history.
However so, is the rest of the conference, and that includes Kansas State this week.
SUMMARY
Clearly, no matter how one evaluates the trends, this is game where it all depends on luck, breaks, which teams shows up...and of course the referees.
I see this as our second toughest game of the year, even tougher than Baylor, and approaching OU. Granted, we played both of those teams tough. But in the end they were still loses....as has been every effort against top-20 equivalent opponents.
To beat KSU would be a huge feat....and the best accomplishment of the season so far. It would take all the muster of our best performances of the season....PLUS luck and the refs falling our way. That is something we don't see when we played Kansas State.
Overall, because of the trends, I see KSU as the favorite here, and by as much as five points. That gives the Cats about a 65% chance of winning tomorrow.....or about 2 to 1 odds against us. That is not counting the refs.
Hopefully, I'm wrong.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
