The Cygarin Ratings have been updated. What a week this is! I'm far closer to being the oldest poster on this board than I am the youngest....and I can honestly say that where we are.... is a place we have never been before in Iowa State history. Win or lose.
Granted there have been times where we have been "that one game" from something exciting happening for Iowa State in football, and failed. But the difference between now and the past is that the past has always been that rare moment present to us via fortune, rather than because we MADE that opportunity ourselves.
By that I mean that the schedules were such that let Iowa State have success in wins and losses. That was true even in the Earl Bruce years where there were far fewer football programs committed to being good, and most especially the 12-team Big-12, when winning the division title was far more about who was on your schedule, as opposed to who you were yourselves.
Not this time. Not now. Iowa State is indeed one of the best teams in the conference, legitimately vying to make the championship game BECAUSE we may be on of the two best team in the conference. At that is after giving the rest of the contenders a mulligan by letting ourselves get beat by TCU.
Anywhoo……just expressing a personal note that I for one will not feel like this is a Charlie Brown moment if we lose Saturday. I have waited my whole life to be in position to have an opportunity to feel this level of disappointment, should that happen.
And there is no indication that this year is a lightning in bottle moment for Iowa State fans. I am going to enjoy the game. And if we lose, I am going to enjoy the fact that going to a bowl game anyway is not a disappointing consolation prize. I'm already anxious about next year.
Ok, enough of that.….
We are sitting hear two (to three) games from the end of the regular season, and I don't think anybody needs an in-depth analysis to understand where most teams stand. That is much easier to evaluate in a conference where round robin schedules are played, so relative abilities is more direct.
Still, this has been a year where there has been so much movement in trends, etc., that a simple look at power rankings can give a misleading perspective of present ability. Nothing exemplifies that more than the Vegas predictions of Iowa being a eleven point favorite over Northwestern. (As we take a momentary pause while I pat myself on my back.)
Though it is less of a secret than before, Iowa State is one of those teams where the early season performances are grossly skewing the level of play where Iowa State is currently at. We are indeed a much better team than most people perceive, and that includes many of our own fans.
We a solidly into a five game new level of performance compared to our first four games. Iowa State did not merely trend up. Instead it instantly leaped up to a new plateau and stayed there.
It is somewhat irrelevant now, but actually TCU was indeed a bit of a transition game if we use how the Horns were playing at that time. Which suggest that, even though Purdy is a profound difference maker, there were other things too that contributed to Iowa State getting better than they were prior.
IOWA STATE
Sagarin has Iowa State ranked 25th, which is a season average. Sagarin Recent has Iowa State ranked 11th, which is much more accurate for recently, but I still think understates where Iowa State's performance is right now.
I used a ranking of 10th for my Sagarin Ratings, but I did go a bit to the conservative side. Actually, if I used raw numbers as-is, I would have Iowa State's performance over the last five games averaging a couple points higher (even with Baylor), and that puts the Clones in that 5th to 7th in the country performance range.
I detuned our performance because of how we played against Baylor, which was clearly the lowest performance over the last five games. Even then though, it was a top-25 performance margin-wise.
The truth is I can't figure out, if anything, the margin in the Baylor game represented. It could have been better, and it could have been a LOT worse! Does it suggest the early stages of a downward trend? Last year that happened. But for now, I am going to make the assumption it doesn't reflect anything in particular.
In evaluating Iowa State's performance...it must be recognized that this recent performance has come against arguably the strongest five game strength of schedule that anybody in the country has probably played this season(even including Baylor), so there is nothing skewed or suspicious in those performances.
Granted there have been times where we have been "that one game" from something exciting happening for Iowa State in football, and failed. But the difference between now and the past is that the past has always been that rare moment present to us via fortune, rather than because we MADE that opportunity ourselves.
By that I mean that the schedules were such that let Iowa State have success in wins and losses. That was true even in the Earl Bruce years where there were far fewer football programs committed to being good, and most especially the 12-team Big-12, when winning the division title was far more about who was on your schedule, as opposed to who you were yourselves.
Not this time. Not now. Iowa State is indeed one of the best teams in the conference, legitimately vying to make the championship game BECAUSE we may be on of the two best team in the conference. At that is after giving the rest of the contenders a mulligan by letting ourselves get beat by TCU.
Anywhoo……just expressing a personal note that I for one will not feel like this is a Charlie Brown moment if we lose Saturday. I have waited my whole life to be in position to have an opportunity to feel this level of disappointment, should that happen.
And there is no indication that this year is a lightning in bottle moment for Iowa State fans. I am going to enjoy the game. And if we lose, I am going to enjoy the fact that going to a bowl game anyway is not a disappointing consolation prize. I'm already anxious about next year.
Ok, enough of that.….
We are sitting hear two (to three) games from the end of the regular season, and I don't think anybody needs an in-depth analysis to understand where most teams stand. That is much easier to evaluate in a conference where round robin schedules are played, so relative abilities is more direct.
Still, this has been a year where there has been so much movement in trends, etc., that a simple look at power rankings can give a misleading perspective of present ability. Nothing exemplifies that more than the Vegas predictions of Iowa being a eleven point favorite over Northwestern. (As we take a momentary pause while I pat myself on my back.)
Though it is less of a secret than before, Iowa State is one of those teams where the early season performances are grossly skewing the level of play where Iowa State is currently at. We are indeed a much better team than most people perceive, and that includes many of our own fans.
We a solidly into a five game new level of performance compared to our first four games. Iowa State did not merely trend up. Instead it instantly leaped up to a new plateau and stayed there.
It is somewhat irrelevant now, but actually TCU was indeed a bit of a transition game if we use how the Horns were playing at that time. Which suggest that, even though Purdy is a profound difference maker, there were other things too that contributed to Iowa State getting better than they were prior.
IOWA STATE
Sagarin has Iowa State ranked 25th, which is a season average. Sagarin Recent has Iowa State ranked 11th, which is much more accurate for recently, but I still think understates where Iowa State's performance is right now.
I used a ranking of 10th for my Sagarin Ratings, but I did go a bit to the conservative side. Actually, if I used raw numbers as-is, I would have Iowa State's performance over the last five games averaging a couple points higher (even with Baylor), and that puts the Clones in that 5th to 7th in the country performance range.
I detuned our performance because of how we played against Baylor, which was clearly the lowest performance over the last five games. Even then though, it was a top-25 performance margin-wise.
The truth is I can't figure out, if anything, the margin in the Baylor game represented. It could have been better, and it could have been a LOT worse! Does it suggest the early stages of a downward trend? Last year that happened. But for now, I am going to make the assumption it doesn't reflect anything in particular.
In evaluating Iowa State's performance...it must be recognized that this recent performance has come against arguably the strongest five game strength of schedule that anybody in the country has probably played this season(even including Baylor), so there is nothing skewed or suspicious in those performances.
Therefore, my analysis is going to stay with a performance level of 10th, knowing that we had been playing solidly better than that prior to Baylor, but also knowing that is a lofty level to sustain by anybody over that long of a time.
Lastly, Massey has our defense as 9th, and the offense lagging way behind at 61st.
TEXAS
Texas is almost exactly who the power ratings say they are. Last week I thought there were indications that they were a tad below that, but there really isn't much in the analysis that suggest that now.
Sagarin has Texas power ranked 18th, and most of the other power rankings reasonably agree with that. Even Sagarin Recent has Texas at 16th.
The Cygarin analysis shows Texas as impressively steady as a rock as the season progresses, with an occasional mild over/under performance. Both the season long trend, as well as performance against SOS supports that Texas is right at their 18th rating at this point in time, and against a caliber of team as good as Iowa State. (I can't believe I just said that.)
On everybody's mind is Texas's win against Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout (I refuse to curtsey to political correctness.) This was actually the Longhorn's second best performance of the season, slightly below their performance against a much lower ranked (50's) USC.
The performance against the Sooners was about a ten point over-performance. aAd other than USC, Texas has not otherwise overperformed by more than five points. They have been that steady. They did have a single ten point under-performance to Baylor, but that's it.
Looked at from the angle of performance against strength of schedule, then you have Texas performing very consistently to their rating against the Iowa State's of the world, except for their strong showing against Oklahoma.
From a big picture standpoint, this year's history suggest that we will get out of Texas this week, exactly who they are. Which lends to being a good thing, since if this game goes chalk, it favors the good guys.
With that in mind, my best opinion is the Texas win over Oklahoma is not representative of their normal performance. I don't know that I would categorize it as a major outlier, but if Texas and Oklahoma were to play again on a neutral field, I would take Oklahoma by about 9 points and close to a 75% chance of winning. Of course, that's not saying that Texas can't do that performance level again.....including Saturday night.
Regarding offense and defense, Massey has Texas power ranked 24th on offense and 33rd on defense. Both very respectable, but not necessarily elite on either side of the ball.
Simply put, they are who they are on most Saturdays.
IOWA STATE VERSUS TEXAS
The fact is, any time a top-25 team can beat another top-25 team on the road, it is a major accomplishment. That's no different for Iowa State, and that has to be kept in context for this game.
Also, I think forgotten by many is that Texas is still in play for a CCG spot. Clearly, Texas will be prepared to lay it all out on the line, and they definitely have the resources to put a LOT on that line.
Iowa State has some things in their favor though too. The biggest is that (at least in numbers) the Clones are allegedly the better team. Secondly is Campbell's teams have a propensity to not let road games be a major performance impediment. Thirdly, Campbell's teams don't get intimidated by the great opponents. Iowa State has a reputation for being giant killers.
And lastly, even though Texas beat Oklahoma, Iowa State actually has more gooder performances this year than Texas does. Whether that means that the odds favor Iowa State having one of it's gooder teams this week, or whether the law of averages suggest that the Clones are due for a bad game....I don't know. I'm hoping that Baylor was that bad game, and its out our system.
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a single point favorite on the road, and had it not been for Baylor I may have stuck with the better part of a field goal.
Does that matter? Not really. Throw in all the variables.....this game simply comes down to who is the better team for few hours Saturday night.
And/or the Texas Mafia. Which of course, can never be ruled out.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link.....
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
Lastly, Massey has our defense as 9th, and the offense lagging way behind at 61st.
TEXAS
Texas is almost exactly who the power ratings say they are. Last week I thought there were indications that they were a tad below that, but there really isn't much in the analysis that suggest that now.
Sagarin has Texas power ranked 18th, and most of the other power rankings reasonably agree with that. Even Sagarin Recent has Texas at 16th.
The Cygarin analysis shows Texas as impressively steady as a rock as the season progresses, with an occasional mild over/under performance. Both the season long trend, as well as performance against SOS supports that Texas is right at their 18th rating at this point in time, and against a caliber of team as good as Iowa State. (I can't believe I just said that.)
On everybody's mind is Texas's win against Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout (I refuse to curtsey to political correctness.) This was actually the Longhorn's second best performance of the season, slightly below their performance against a much lower ranked (50's) USC.
The performance against the Sooners was about a ten point over-performance. aAd other than USC, Texas has not otherwise overperformed by more than five points. They have been that steady. They did have a single ten point under-performance to Baylor, but that's it.
Looked at from the angle of performance against strength of schedule, then you have Texas performing very consistently to their rating against the Iowa State's of the world, except for their strong showing against Oklahoma.
From a big picture standpoint, this year's history suggest that we will get out of Texas this week, exactly who they are. Which lends to being a good thing, since if this game goes chalk, it favors the good guys.
With that in mind, my best opinion is the Texas win over Oklahoma is not representative of their normal performance. I don't know that I would categorize it as a major outlier, but if Texas and Oklahoma were to play again on a neutral field, I would take Oklahoma by about 9 points and close to a 75% chance of winning. Of course, that's not saying that Texas can't do that performance level again.....including Saturday night.
Regarding offense and defense, Massey has Texas power ranked 24th on offense and 33rd on defense. Both very respectable, but not necessarily elite on either side of the ball.
Simply put, they are who they are on most Saturdays.
IOWA STATE VERSUS TEXAS
The fact is, any time a top-25 team can beat another top-25 team on the road, it is a major accomplishment. That's no different for Iowa State, and that has to be kept in context for this game.
Also, I think forgotten by many is that Texas is still in play for a CCG spot. Clearly, Texas will be prepared to lay it all out on the line, and they definitely have the resources to put a LOT on that line.
Iowa State has some things in their favor though too. The biggest is that (at least in numbers) the Clones are allegedly the better team. Secondly is Campbell's teams have a propensity to not let road games be a major performance impediment. Thirdly, Campbell's teams don't get intimidated by the great opponents. Iowa State has a reputation for being giant killers.
And lastly, even though Texas beat Oklahoma, Iowa State actually has more gooder performances this year than Texas does. Whether that means that the odds favor Iowa State having one of it's gooder teams this week, or whether the law of averages suggest that the Clones are due for a bad game....I don't know. I'm hoping that Baylor was that bad game, and its out our system.
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a single point favorite on the road, and had it not been for Baylor I may have stuck with the better part of a field goal.
Does that matter? Not really. Throw in all the variables.....this game simply comes down to who is the better team for few hours Saturday night.
And/or the Texas Mafia. Which of course, can never be ruled out.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link.....
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
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