The Cygarin Ratings have been updated, and I have been struggling all week trying to find something that I can offer for a credible analysis. And I am coming up nearly empty handed.
The reason for this is because the different power rankings are nowhere near having any semblance of a correlation to each other. I believe the reason for this is because there have been an unusual amount of teams that have had considerably opposite results in difference games. Such, as Texas losing to Maryland then beating USC, Akron beating Northwestern, and Brigham Young beating Wisconsin, etc.
Different power rankings use different methods to identify and exclude games that are outliers, and I think because of that, for example...one power ranking will through out the Texas-Maryland game, another will throw out the Texas-USC game, and of course others will not throw out any at all. Thus, the power rankings are probably momentarily being pulled away finding accuracy, rather than closer.
Iowa State has a particularly problematic situation, having played only two games to date, and both of them happen to be power ranked top-25 teams, and in some cases both being top-15. Not surprisingly, Iowa State has an overwhelming consensus No. 1 ranked strength of schedule in the country.
So, not only do you have the opportunity for Iowa State to be skewed by having played such a tough schedule to date......you also have the consideration of how much negative impact playing two top-15 teams had the very first two games of the season when the opposing teams had an extra (and it being a warmup). Count me as one who believes that not getting to play SDSU probably cost Iowa State one game, and possibly cost us two.
I have stuck with Congrove for another week. I don't like Congrove at all, but it is the only power ranking that made the effort to actually predict the season, and thus particularly in the case of Iowa State it more possibly represents Iowa State's strength. Sagarin, for example, has Iowa State 50th and I just don't buy that. (Don't blame the ratings. Rather, blame the erratic data.)
IOWA STATE - AKRON
I'm not going to dwell too much on the predictions, simply because I don't have much faith in the data to do an analysis.
Akron is ranked anywhere between about 75th to 100th in the country, and after beating Northwestern you have to lean toward the high side. I don't think that Akron is better than Northwestern, but obviously good enough to catch what is probably an average Northwestern team sleeping.
Akron has also played only two games, and the other was against Morgan State, ranked in the 300's. To put that in perspective, Incarnate Word is ranked more or less around 200. So other than Northwestern, there is nothing to analyze.
Iowa State is favored over the Zips by 22 and have a 94% chance of winning.
IOWA - WISCONSIN
We all know that the Badgers got beat by BYU, which by all indications BYU is not very good. They lost to 48th Cal the week before. Again, I think this is game that Wisconsin got caught sleeping, and perhaps looking ahead to Iowa. (Gawd I hope so.)
Good luck predicting the outcome of this one. I would probably consider Wisconsin a slightly better team, which gets negated by Iowa having the home field advantage.
I see this game going one of two ways.....
The game will be won by one of the teams 5-2 in overtime.
Or, one of the two teams will find an offense and run roughshod over the other.
I have no idea which outcome, nor which team will win.
Wisconsin needs this win. Iowa has a much easier conference schedule over all. Wisconsin is Iowa's second toughest conference game of the season....whereby Iowa is Wisconsin's fourth toughest game. So if Iowa wins this game.....I don't see anybody in the West that has any chance of challenging them for the Division title, that's even if Northwestern beats Iowa.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link...
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
The reason for this is because the different power rankings are nowhere near having any semblance of a correlation to each other. I believe the reason for this is because there have been an unusual amount of teams that have had considerably opposite results in difference games. Such, as Texas losing to Maryland then beating USC, Akron beating Northwestern, and Brigham Young beating Wisconsin, etc.
Different power rankings use different methods to identify and exclude games that are outliers, and I think because of that, for example...one power ranking will through out the Texas-Maryland game, another will throw out the Texas-USC game, and of course others will not throw out any at all. Thus, the power rankings are probably momentarily being pulled away finding accuracy, rather than closer.
Iowa State has a particularly problematic situation, having played only two games to date, and both of them happen to be power ranked top-25 teams, and in some cases both being top-15. Not surprisingly, Iowa State has an overwhelming consensus No. 1 ranked strength of schedule in the country.
So, not only do you have the opportunity for Iowa State to be skewed by having played such a tough schedule to date......you also have the consideration of how much negative impact playing two top-15 teams had the very first two games of the season when the opposing teams had an extra (and it being a warmup). Count me as one who believes that not getting to play SDSU probably cost Iowa State one game, and possibly cost us two.
I have stuck with Congrove for another week. I don't like Congrove at all, but it is the only power ranking that made the effort to actually predict the season, and thus particularly in the case of Iowa State it more possibly represents Iowa State's strength. Sagarin, for example, has Iowa State 50th and I just don't buy that. (Don't blame the ratings. Rather, blame the erratic data.)
IOWA STATE - AKRON
I'm not going to dwell too much on the predictions, simply because I don't have much faith in the data to do an analysis.
Akron is ranked anywhere between about 75th to 100th in the country, and after beating Northwestern you have to lean toward the high side. I don't think that Akron is better than Northwestern, but obviously good enough to catch what is probably an average Northwestern team sleeping.
Akron has also played only two games, and the other was against Morgan State, ranked in the 300's. To put that in perspective, Incarnate Word is ranked more or less around 200. So other than Northwestern, there is nothing to analyze.
Iowa State is favored over the Zips by 22 and have a 94% chance of winning.
IOWA - WISCONSIN
We all know that the Badgers got beat by BYU, which by all indications BYU is not very good. They lost to 48th Cal the week before. Again, I think this is game that Wisconsin got caught sleeping, and perhaps looking ahead to Iowa. (Gawd I hope so.)
Good luck predicting the outcome of this one. I would probably consider Wisconsin a slightly better team, which gets negated by Iowa having the home field advantage.
I see this game going one of two ways.....
The game will be won by one of the teams 5-2 in overtime.
Or, one of the two teams will find an offense and run roughshod over the other.
I have no idea which outcome, nor which team will win.
Wisconsin needs this win. Iowa has a much easier conference schedule over all. Wisconsin is Iowa's second toughest conference game of the season....whereby Iowa is Wisconsin's fourth toughest game. So if Iowa wins this game.....I don't see anybody in the West that has any chance of challenging them for the Division title, that's even if Northwestern beats Iowa.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link...
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
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