The Cygarin Ratings have been updated. I must say this is the most anxiety I have had doing the Cygarin Ratings in an awfully long time. 
Let me start with the most optimistic perspective of what the analysis may be suggesting, then discuss the concerns and caveats....
Sagarin has Iowa State currently ranked 33rd in the country. This is the highest ranking since 2005 (based on end of season rankings), when Iowa State finished 29th.
But, the Cygarin Ratings analysis indicates that Sagarin has Iowa State ranked a little low, which is something that has been the case all season.
I look at both the mean and median performance level when I assess the Sagarin Ratings, and the analysis indicates that the Cyclones are averaging over five points better than Sagarin suggests, and about three points better than their median.
Comparing mean and median, it is easy to presume that the Oklahoma game is skewing the average to the high side, thus I have opted to consider the median as a more conservative and arguably more accurate number.
Using the median performance level, that bumps Iowa State up about three points, and that bumps Iowa State's ranking up to 27th in the country. Which if that would somehow hold until the end of the season, would be the highest final season ranking since the Earl Bruce era.
By the way, 27th also matches close to what Massy has Iowa State power rated this week (26th), recognizing that Massey puts a little more weight on more recent games.
But wait! There's more!.......
None of the above analysis takes into consideration Iowa State's upward trend, and where the Cyclones are playing "right now".
The trend graph indicates that the Cyclones have been in a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the season, with Texas being a pothole (and the only pothole so far) in that trend.
But most significantly, Iowa State has taken a huge leap in the trend in their last two performances against Oklahoma and Kansas.
If the trend holds, and if Iowa State can sustain the new level of performance going forward........Iowa State is very conservatively playing at a level ten points above my adjusted rating, and thirteen points above Sagarin's current rating.
Ten points better puts Iowa State performing at the level of a top-10 team. For the record, the performances against OU and KU were actually above a 10th rated team.
Is it possible that Iowa State is capable of sustaining a top-10 level of performance? Personally I doubt it. But that not the point. Rather, the point is.....can Iowa State be capable of sustaining a top-30 level of performance. If so....the chances of going bowling are certainly favorable.
Now, here are the caveats......
First, the Oklahoma game was over the moon compared with performances previous to playing them. Even using my adjusted rating, that game was a 20 point over-performance. That would mean that we played better than number one Alabama for that one game.
That's pretty hard to swallow. However, if you split the performance, that is..... ISU played ten points over and Oklahoma played ten points under...then playing ten points over performance is entirely plausible and not out of line with Iowa State
s current performance. And using that more plausible scenario is more realistically promising going forward.
Second, the problem with analyzing Kansas is that, well....it's Kansas. Kansas (this year) is so bad (now 151st in the country) that it is very hard to tell if the game is even a usable data point. Add to that the weather conditions, and that Kansas screwed the pooch over and over during the game, and it further questions whether Kansas is a usable data point or not.
But, if you can use Kansas as a usable data point (only more games will tell), then you have Iowa State with back-to-back top-10 performances.
It's plausible! But no way am I going to stake Iowa State's performance going forward based on how we did against one of the worst power rated teams that Iowa State has played in several years. And rarely ever.
Third, you still have the Texas performance. What did this game mean?
Even though it was a low point of the season so far, it wasn't that far of a drop from our performance level previous to playing Longhorns. And that was only three games back.
Thus, it may turn out that Oklahoma and Kansas represent merely a temporary and unusual high point of the season, borne out of playing the best and worst teams on the schedule in back-to-back games.
Summarizing the caveats......
Oklahoma and Kansas games are still the minority performances of the season so far.....and therefore it may turn out they are the two outlier games of the season.
But, back to the trends... one can also not dismiss the overall season's (to date) steady upward trend, and how the OU and KU performances supports and fits that trend.
Arggghhhh! The anxiety!
TEXAS TECH.....
Texas Tech is not a difficult analysis. They are power ranked 30th by Sagarin and 34th by Massey.
If you take a look at the far right page of my spreadsheet, I have done a separate analysis of Texas Tech. It shows that with the exception of two sub-100 opponents, the Red Raiders have played remarkably consistently with their power ranking.
They did they drop off quite a bit against WVU based on the final score, but until they screwed the pooch at the end of the game, they were actually playing at or better than their rating. So we have to be a little careful about that evaluating that performance.
Having the home field advantage makes Texas Tech equivalent to playing a 25th ranked team in the country, which supports why Tech is about a five point favorite with Vegas
The biggest problem with analyzing Texas Tech is that they have the 4th best Massey power ranked offense in the country.....but the 100th ranked defense. With that good of an offense, and that bad of a defense, how does one predict how they will play on any given Saturday?
GAME SUMMARY
Clearly, all indicators suggest that this is going to be a very high scoring game by both teams, and whenever you have that much scoring, it becomes a crap shoot who is going to score the most....or perhaps last.
Also clearly, when every possession counts, and probably counts towards a score, turnovers will almost assuredly have an impact on the game, since it very likely costs the team a score no matter where on the field the turnover occurred. (There probably won't be much punting in this game.)
By and large, I like how our offense and defense are performing right now, and I like how they each matchup with the Red Raiders.
But, the notion that we can suddenly play three consecutive games at this lofty level has me deeply concerned. That's asking an awfully lot out of this thin team (or used to be) ...on the road....with a second year coach.
No matter how many ways I slice this analysis..... with the exception of one....this is an absolute, dead-on, pick-em game.
The one slice to the contrary is Iowa State's trend. So let's hope that continues.
(In my opinion.)
Did I mention my anxiety?
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Let me start with the most optimistic perspective of what the analysis may be suggesting, then discuss the concerns and caveats....
Sagarin has Iowa State currently ranked 33rd in the country. This is the highest ranking since 2005 (based on end of season rankings), when Iowa State finished 29th.
But, the Cygarin Ratings analysis indicates that Sagarin has Iowa State ranked a little low, which is something that has been the case all season.
I look at both the mean and median performance level when I assess the Sagarin Ratings, and the analysis indicates that the Cyclones are averaging over five points better than Sagarin suggests, and about three points better than their median.
Comparing mean and median, it is easy to presume that the Oklahoma game is skewing the average to the high side, thus I have opted to consider the median as a more conservative and arguably more accurate number.
Using the median performance level, that bumps Iowa State up about three points, and that bumps Iowa State's ranking up to 27th in the country. Which if that would somehow hold until the end of the season, would be the highest final season ranking since the Earl Bruce era.
By the way, 27th also matches close to what Massy has Iowa State power rated this week (26th), recognizing that Massey puts a little more weight on more recent games.
But wait! There's more!.......
None of the above analysis takes into consideration Iowa State's upward trend, and where the Cyclones are playing "right now".
The trend graph indicates that the Cyclones have been in a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the season, with Texas being a pothole (and the only pothole so far) in that trend.
But most significantly, Iowa State has taken a huge leap in the trend in their last two performances against Oklahoma and Kansas.
If the trend holds, and if Iowa State can sustain the new level of performance going forward........Iowa State is very conservatively playing at a level ten points above my adjusted rating, and thirteen points above Sagarin's current rating.
Ten points better puts Iowa State performing at the level of a top-10 team. For the record, the performances against OU and KU were actually above a 10th rated team.
Is it possible that Iowa State is capable of sustaining a top-10 level of performance? Personally I doubt it. But that not the point. Rather, the point is.....can Iowa State be capable of sustaining a top-30 level of performance. If so....the chances of going bowling are certainly favorable.
Now, here are the caveats......
First, the Oklahoma game was over the moon compared with performances previous to playing them. Even using my adjusted rating, that game was a 20 point over-performance. That would mean that we played better than number one Alabama for that one game.
That's pretty hard to swallow. However, if you split the performance, that is..... ISU played ten points over and Oklahoma played ten points under...then playing ten points over performance is entirely plausible and not out of line with Iowa State
s current performance. And using that more plausible scenario is more realistically promising going forward.
Second, the problem with analyzing Kansas is that, well....it's Kansas. Kansas (this year) is so bad (now 151st in the country) that it is very hard to tell if the game is even a usable data point. Add to that the weather conditions, and that Kansas screwed the pooch over and over during the game, and it further questions whether Kansas is a usable data point or not.
But, if you can use Kansas as a usable data point (only more games will tell), then you have Iowa State with back-to-back top-10 performances.
It's plausible! But no way am I going to stake Iowa State's performance going forward based on how we did against one of the worst power rated teams that Iowa State has played in several years. And rarely ever.
Third, you still have the Texas performance. What did this game mean?
Even though it was a low point of the season so far, it wasn't that far of a drop from our performance level previous to playing Longhorns. And that was only three games back.
Thus, it may turn out that Oklahoma and Kansas represent merely a temporary and unusual high point of the season, borne out of playing the best and worst teams on the schedule in back-to-back games.
Summarizing the caveats......
Oklahoma and Kansas games are still the minority performances of the season so far.....and therefore it may turn out they are the two outlier games of the season.
But, back to the trends... one can also not dismiss the overall season's (to date) steady upward trend, and how the OU and KU performances supports and fits that trend.
Arggghhhh! The anxiety!
TEXAS TECH.....
Texas Tech is not a difficult analysis. They are power ranked 30th by Sagarin and 34th by Massey.
If you take a look at the far right page of my spreadsheet, I have done a separate analysis of Texas Tech. It shows that with the exception of two sub-100 opponents, the Red Raiders have played remarkably consistently with their power ranking.
They did they drop off quite a bit against WVU based on the final score, but until they screwed the pooch at the end of the game, they were actually playing at or better than their rating. So we have to be a little careful about that evaluating that performance.
Having the home field advantage makes Texas Tech equivalent to playing a 25th ranked team in the country, which supports why Tech is about a five point favorite with Vegas
The biggest problem with analyzing Texas Tech is that they have the 4th best Massey power ranked offense in the country.....but the 100th ranked defense. With that good of an offense, and that bad of a defense, how does one predict how they will play on any given Saturday?
GAME SUMMARY
Clearly, all indicators suggest that this is going to be a very high scoring game by both teams, and whenever you have that much scoring, it becomes a crap shoot who is going to score the most....or perhaps last.
Also clearly, when every possession counts, and probably counts towards a score, turnovers will almost assuredly have an impact on the game, since it very likely costs the team a score no matter where on the field the turnover occurred. (There probably won't be much punting in this game.)
By and large, I like how our offense and defense are performing right now, and I like how they each matchup with the Red Raiders.
But, the notion that we can suddenly play three consecutive games at this lofty level has me deeply concerned. That's asking an awfully lot out of this thin team (or used to be) ...on the road....with a second year coach.
No matter how many ways I slice this analysis..... with the exception of one....this is an absolute, dead-on, pick-em game.
The one slice to the contrary is Iowa State's trend. So let's hope that continues.
(In my opinion.)
Did I mention my anxiety?
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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