The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
First, full disclosure: I have adjusted both Iowa State’s and Iowa’s power ranking to reflect what the trend charts represent. That's something that I often do about this time of the season. If you look at the charts you will easily understand why I have done that.
In the case of Iowa State, I have used the conservative performance of the last three games so that it may represent Iowa State’s potential for winning going forward.
In the case of Iowa, I’m using their entire season trend. For some reason, the Sagarin Ratings are not reflecting Iowa’s “this year” performance at this time. That will correct itself soon.
IOWA STATE
At the risk of getting prematurely excited, the trends suggest that something impressive is happening with Iowa State. Being very conservative, in the last three games (versus the first two) Iowa State is averaging playing like a top 50 to 55 ranked team. This may not sound that impressive, but it is 20 point per game improvement over UNI, and compared to the Iowa game it is off the charts.
More interesting though, is that in Iowa State’s last two games, Iowa State is performing at a very conservative 35th-ish ranked level. Arguably better than that, but I am downplaying the San Jose State game as a weak opponent.
Regardless of what level of play that Iowa State is at, there is no argument that the charts show that Iowa State’s improvement is skyrocketing compared to the first two games.
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Pokes are still an unknown.
They lost to 90th ranked Central Michigan, which was a devastating loss on par with Iowa State losing to UNI. They also lost at 19th ranked Baylor by 11 points, so that can used as a bit of a common denominator with Iowa State.
Their best win was against 38th Pittsburg at home by 7 points which at home would make Pitt 50th ranked equivalent.
And of course, they beat 42nd ranked Texas at home by 18 points. Which the entire country is trying to figure out how good or bad Texas may be.
SUMMARY
The Cygarin Ratings suggest that Iowa State is a nine point underdog to Oklahoma State. Vegas has us as a 17 point underdog, I believe. Call me crazy, but I think this is much closer to being a toss-up game, and I think it is possible for Iowa State to win.
My rationale is based on two observations….
The first is that Iowa State appears to be playing notably better recently (and still trending upward) than both the actual Sagarin Rating, as well as slightly better than my adjusted Cygarin Rating based on recent games. The caveat is that it is still early for the new staff, and this is a road game for them. It’s hard to believe that consistency is established in the program yet.
The second is that it appears that Oklahoma State is playing quite inconsistently, which increases the possibility that they will notably underperform in any given game. And because of that, it improves the chances that Iowa State can win as a result of OSU having one of their down performances while playing against us.
Time will tell. Minimally I would easily take Iowa State against the Vegas spread.
IOWA
There is just no way that I can pass on talking about the Hawkeyes this week……
As you know, all last year and continuing through this year I have emphasized that Iowa was magnificently overrated last year, as was Michigan State. The conference championship game was a decider for which of the two teams would play in the national championship play-off, and the loser was going to play in the Rose Bowl. Neither of them were one of the best two teams in their own conference, not to even think they were one of the best four in the country.
Not only did I not think that either team was national championship caliber, but I also suggested that I thought that Iowa may not even be a top-30 caliber team. We saw what happened to both teams in their respective bowls when they went up the real elites of the nation.
The hype for this year was that Iowa was coming back with a repeat team….which in my opinion they were indeed! However, my perspective of a repeat was another sub-30 edition.
The current Cygarin Ratings charts are remarkably consistent and compelling for Iowa. Giving Iowa the benefit of the doubt, they are playing in the 50 to 55 range. But there is trending evidence in both the performance against SOS and the season trend that Iowa is digressing from even that.
Furthermore, Iowa is performing very little differently than last year against the strength of schedule. Last year Iowa squeaked by several lower ranked teams that this year those caliber of teams are now squeaking by Iowa. It is a blink of an eye difference between this year and last year.
The Hawks are in a pickle bigger than I think their fan base recognizes. From a statistical standpoint, it appears that Iowa must beat Minnesota to hang on to anywhere near a 50-50 chance of making a bowl. Minnesota and Illinois appear to be must win games for bowl eligibility, barring a huge upset down the road.
Based on seasonal play to date though, both Minnesota and Illinois are toss-up games, meaning that the odds are rather against Iowa winning both of them.
Minnesota is a complete unknown. They have three wins against sub-100 non-conference cupcakes and really didn’t win that convincingly over them. They followed that up with an overtime loss to Penn State on the road. Based on that that game alone (which isn’t much to go by) they technically have a better performance than anything Iowa has had this year. (Except for Iowa State, which I place an asterisk by.)
You might want to keep the popcorn and hot butter on standby. There is at least a 50-50 chance that the Hawkeye nation is going to go into entertainment deluxe meltdown mode.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
First, full disclosure: I have adjusted both Iowa State’s and Iowa’s power ranking to reflect what the trend charts represent. That's something that I often do about this time of the season. If you look at the charts you will easily understand why I have done that.
In the case of Iowa State, I have used the conservative performance of the last three games so that it may represent Iowa State’s potential for winning going forward.
In the case of Iowa, I’m using their entire season trend. For some reason, the Sagarin Ratings are not reflecting Iowa’s “this year” performance at this time. That will correct itself soon.
IOWA STATE
At the risk of getting prematurely excited, the trends suggest that something impressive is happening with Iowa State. Being very conservative, in the last three games (versus the first two) Iowa State is averaging playing like a top 50 to 55 ranked team. This may not sound that impressive, but it is 20 point per game improvement over UNI, and compared to the Iowa game it is off the charts.
More interesting though, is that in Iowa State’s last two games, Iowa State is performing at a very conservative 35th-ish ranked level. Arguably better than that, but I am downplaying the San Jose State game as a weak opponent.
Regardless of what level of play that Iowa State is at, there is no argument that the charts show that Iowa State’s improvement is skyrocketing compared to the first two games.
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Pokes are still an unknown.
They lost to 90th ranked Central Michigan, which was a devastating loss on par with Iowa State losing to UNI. They also lost at 19th ranked Baylor by 11 points, so that can used as a bit of a common denominator with Iowa State.
Their best win was against 38th Pittsburg at home by 7 points which at home would make Pitt 50th ranked equivalent.
And of course, they beat 42nd ranked Texas at home by 18 points. Which the entire country is trying to figure out how good or bad Texas may be.
SUMMARY
The Cygarin Ratings suggest that Iowa State is a nine point underdog to Oklahoma State. Vegas has us as a 17 point underdog, I believe. Call me crazy, but I think this is much closer to being a toss-up game, and I think it is possible for Iowa State to win.
My rationale is based on two observations….
The first is that Iowa State appears to be playing notably better recently (and still trending upward) than both the actual Sagarin Rating, as well as slightly better than my adjusted Cygarin Rating based on recent games. The caveat is that it is still early for the new staff, and this is a road game for them. It’s hard to believe that consistency is established in the program yet.
The second is that it appears that Oklahoma State is playing quite inconsistently, which increases the possibility that they will notably underperform in any given game. And because of that, it improves the chances that Iowa State can win as a result of OSU having one of their down performances while playing against us.
Time will tell. Minimally I would easily take Iowa State against the Vegas spread.
IOWA
There is just no way that I can pass on talking about the Hawkeyes this week……
As you know, all last year and continuing through this year I have emphasized that Iowa was magnificently overrated last year, as was Michigan State. The conference championship game was a decider for which of the two teams would play in the national championship play-off, and the loser was going to play in the Rose Bowl. Neither of them were one of the best two teams in their own conference, not to even think they were one of the best four in the country.
Not only did I not think that either team was national championship caliber, but I also suggested that I thought that Iowa may not even be a top-30 caliber team. We saw what happened to both teams in their respective bowls when they went up the real elites of the nation.
The hype for this year was that Iowa was coming back with a repeat team….which in my opinion they were indeed! However, my perspective of a repeat was another sub-30 edition.
The current Cygarin Ratings charts are remarkably consistent and compelling for Iowa. Giving Iowa the benefit of the doubt, they are playing in the 50 to 55 range. But there is trending evidence in both the performance against SOS and the season trend that Iowa is digressing from even that.
Furthermore, Iowa is performing very little differently than last year against the strength of schedule. Last year Iowa squeaked by several lower ranked teams that this year those caliber of teams are now squeaking by Iowa. It is a blink of an eye difference between this year and last year.
The Hawks are in a pickle bigger than I think their fan base recognizes. From a statistical standpoint, it appears that Iowa must beat Minnesota to hang on to anywhere near a 50-50 chance of making a bowl. Minnesota and Illinois appear to be must win games for bowl eligibility, barring a huge upset down the road.
Based on seasonal play to date though, both Minnesota and Illinois are toss-up games, meaning that the odds are rather against Iowa winning both of them.
Minnesota is a complete unknown. They have three wins against sub-100 non-conference cupcakes and really didn’t win that convincingly over them. They followed that up with an overtime loss to Penn State on the road. Based on that that game alone (which isn’t much to go by) they technically have a better performance than anything Iowa has had this year. (Except for Iowa State, which I place an asterisk by.)
You might want to keep the popcorn and hot butter on standby. There is at least a 50-50 chance that the Hawkeye nation is going to go into entertainment deluxe meltdown mode.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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