The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
It is not very often where I see nearly all the cards heavily stacked in favor of one team in this series, but this year that’s what I see…..
Iowa has the home field advantage.
Granted the visiting team has won on occasions, and many say that doesn’t play a factor in this game. It does. It is not the factor, for sure. But in games where the visiting team has won, other factors simply outweighed the home field advantage.
Iowa has the more stabilized staff.
Since 1998 when the losing streak was broken, the team that had a last year coach or a first year coach has lost the game every time but once. The lone exception to that was 2007 when Gene Chizik beat Iowa his first year.
Iowa has the more stabilized team.
Much of Iowa’s roster comes back for 2016. This year, Iowa is extremely stable, and stability from the previous year is one of the major cornerstones for Kirk’s better teams. (Per the power rankings, not the win-loss record.)
Iowa State has extensively and alarmingly the opposite. The offensive line rebuild and nine true freshmen in the two-deeps have been already been beat to death.
Iowa has the notably higher power ranking.
There have been very few exceptions where the notably better team in the power rankings has lost in the series since 1998. That’s probably stating the obvious.
But what is less obvious is that with the majority of games between these two teams, they were equal enough per the power ratings to consider the game a toss-up. This is something that Iowa fans simply cannot accept.
There have actually been only a handful of games where one team was power ranked notably higher than the other.
This appears to be that year….Iowa appears to be that notably higher ranked team.
Iowa has the easier prior game.
This is the one that gets under my skin. For all practical purposes, Iowa had an organized scrimmage last week. It was a game where Iowa could afford to work the kinks out, and still have to go deep into the depth chart to get experience, and simultaneously keep the two deeps rested.
Furthermore, I highly doubt that Kirk spent an excessive amount of time preparing for Miami, nor should he have. In the past I have referred to this as “leapfrogging”. I think it very much applies here.
Basically, Kirk has had the opportunity to put focus on the Iowa State game for two (or more) weeks, instead of just one. In a year that Iowa is expected to vie for the conference championship (via record, not ability) losing to Iowa would be a catastrophe for Kirk….even more than NDSU next week.
On the other end, Campbell had to put all his energy and resources into the Northern Iowa game exclusively.
Furthermore, win or lose, Iowa State had a game where all of its resources needed to be thrown into this game, with the associated wear, tear and, fatigue that comes out of such a game.
Conclusion:
All those factors lean entirely towards Iowa winning this game. Furthermore, each of those factors weigh heavily in favor of Iowa.
There is almost nothing that suggests that Iowa State can pull out the upset. And I don’t expect it one bit.
However, there is one lone caveat:
First of all, for the above noted factors that reference power rankings, they are based on the power rankings at the end of the year, not going into the game. The end of year rankings are the ones reflective of what caliber a team was season long.
This year’s rankings won’t be in the books until this season is over, so there is the opportunity to speculate on the plausible hypothetical……..
IOWA
Though I think Iowa will almost certainly win, I am not sold on the idea that Iowa will dominate Iowa State. I think they most certainly can dominate, and given the chance…..they most certainly will.
However, all last year I had expressed that Iowa was nowhere near being a caliber team in contention for the play-off. I suggested that Iowa was somewhere in the range of a 20th to 40th rated team, probably hovering somewhere right around 25th-ish, one side or the other.
For the record, there is somewhat nominal difference between 25th and 40th. The power rankings are not linear, and teams in this range are pretty bunched up. Even polls tend to reflect this, with commonly 40 or more teams getting top-25 votes.
I had noted that Iowa won only one game (out of three) against top-40 equivalent opponents, and played very tight games against several sub-40 opponents. Those two observations combined leaves quantitative suggestibility that Iowa’s ranking was suspicious last year.
Iowa’s performance against Miami is a third element that supports suggestibility. To be fair, Miami is so bad that any score is possible depending on how lightly Kirk opened the playbook, and how heavily he substituted players.
But, from what little I saw of the game, and what Iowa fans have told me, Iowa’s defense didn’t stuff the Miami offense. Indeed, they moved the ball relatively well, right up until they shot themselves in the foot several times. (Sound familiar)?
Regardless, Iowa is currently a low top-25 consensus in the power rankings. And score-wise Iowa still underperformed by eight points against Miami. That tentatively translates into a 40’s to 50’s ranking performance, just like last year in several performances.
Let me repeat that Iowa being a lower ranked team is something I am suggesting as plausible based on suggestive indicators. I’m not suggesting you hang your hat on it.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State currently stands at a 82nd ranking after the badly dysfunctional performance against UNI. The question for me is, what would be the potential ranking of this team if it functioned solidly?
As I have said before, Iowa State was three plays away from being a top-30 caliber team last year. Understandably though, “ifs and buts” from last year have quickly diminishing value for the present. Especially with so many changes.
Until proven otherwise to me….the potential for Iowa State to be able to perform at a much higher is still there. For Saturday, a lot of that comes down to whether dysfunctionality turns out to be a one game anomaly, or a fingerprint of this team.
It would not be the first time that Iowa State stunk up the first game, and then played with precision against Iowa. I don’t know if that ever happened, or can happen, in any coach’s first year. (1)
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
It is not very often where I see nearly all the cards heavily stacked in favor of one team in this series, but this year that’s what I see…..
Iowa has the home field advantage.
Granted the visiting team has won on occasions, and many say that doesn’t play a factor in this game. It does. It is not the factor, for sure. But in games where the visiting team has won, other factors simply outweighed the home field advantage.
Iowa has the more stabilized staff.
Since 1998 when the losing streak was broken, the team that had a last year coach or a first year coach has lost the game every time but once. The lone exception to that was 2007 when Gene Chizik beat Iowa his first year.
Iowa has the more stabilized team.
Much of Iowa’s roster comes back for 2016. This year, Iowa is extremely stable, and stability from the previous year is one of the major cornerstones for Kirk’s better teams. (Per the power rankings, not the win-loss record.)
Iowa State has extensively and alarmingly the opposite. The offensive line rebuild and nine true freshmen in the two-deeps have been already been beat to death.
Iowa has the notably higher power ranking.
There have been very few exceptions where the notably better team in the power rankings has lost in the series since 1998. That’s probably stating the obvious.
But what is less obvious is that with the majority of games between these two teams, they were equal enough per the power ratings to consider the game a toss-up. This is something that Iowa fans simply cannot accept.
There have actually been only a handful of games where one team was power ranked notably higher than the other.
This appears to be that year….Iowa appears to be that notably higher ranked team.
Iowa has the easier prior game.
This is the one that gets under my skin. For all practical purposes, Iowa had an organized scrimmage last week. It was a game where Iowa could afford to work the kinks out, and still have to go deep into the depth chart to get experience, and simultaneously keep the two deeps rested.
Furthermore, I highly doubt that Kirk spent an excessive amount of time preparing for Miami, nor should he have. In the past I have referred to this as “leapfrogging”. I think it very much applies here.
Basically, Kirk has had the opportunity to put focus on the Iowa State game for two (or more) weeks, instead of just one. In a year that Iowa is expected to vie for the conference championship (via record, not ability) losing to Iowa would be a catastrophe for Kirk….even more than NDSU next week.
On the other end, Campbell had to put all his energy and resources into the Northern Iowa game exclusively.
Furthermore, win or lose, Iowa State had a game where all of its resources needed to be thrown into this game, with the associated wear, tear and, fatigue that comes out of such a game.
Conclusion:
All those factors lean entirely towards Iowa winning this game. Furthermore, each of those factors weigh heavily in favor of Iowa.
There is almost nothing that suggests that Iowa State can pull out the upset. And I don’t expect it one bit.
However, there is one lone caveat:
First of all, for the above noted factors that reference power rankings, they are based on the power rankings at the end of the year, not going into the game. The end of year rankings are the ones reflective of what caliber a team was season long.
This year’s rankings won’t be in the books until this season is over, so there is the opportunity to speculate on the plausible hypothetical……..
IOWA
Though I think Iowa will almost certainly win, I am not sold on the idea that Iowa will dominate Iowa State. I think they most certainly can dominate, and given the chance…..they most certainly will.
However, all last year I had expressed that Iowa was nowhere near being a caliber team in contention for the play-off. I suggested that Iowa was somewhere in the range of a 20th to 40th rated team, probably hovering somewhere right around 25th-ish, one side or the other.
For the record, there is somewhat nominal difference between 25th and 40th. The power rankings are not linear, and teams in this range are pretty bunched up. Even polls tend to reflect this, with commonly 40 or more teams getting top-25 votes.
I had noted that Iowa won only one game (out of three) against top-40 equivalent opponents, and played very tight games against several sub-40 opponents. Those two observations combined leaves quantitative suggestibility that Iowa’s ranking was suspicious last year.
Iowa’s performance against Miami is a third element that supports suggestibility. To be fair, Miami is so bad that any score is possible depending on how lightly Kirk opened the playbook, and how heavily he substituted players.
But, from what little I saw of the game, and what Iowa fans have told me, Iowa’s defense didn’t stuff the Miami offense. Indeed, they moved the ball relatively well, right up until they shot themselves in the foot several times. (Sound familiar)?
Regardless, Iowa is currently a low top-25 consensus in the power rankings. And score-wise Iowa still underperformed by eight points against Miami. That tentatively translates into a 40’s to 50’s ranking performance, just like last year in several performances.
Let me repeat that Iowa being a lower ranked team is something I am suggesting as plausible based on suggestive indicators. I’m not suggesting you hang your hat on it.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State currently stands at a 82nd ranking after the badly dysfunctional performance against UNI. The question for me is, what would be the potential ranking of this team if it functioned solidly?
As I have said before, Iowa State was three plays away from being a top-30 caliber team last year. Understandably though, “ifs and buts” from last year have quickly diminishing value for the present. Especially with so many changes.
Until proven otherwise to me….the potential for Iowa State to be able to perform at a much higher is still there. For Saturday, a lot of that comes down to whether dysfunctionality turns out to be a one game anomaly, or a fingerprint of this team.
It would not be the first time that Iowa State stunk up the first game, and then played with precision against Iowa. I don’t know if that ever happened, or can happen, in any coach’s first year. (1)
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
