In the case of the Big-12 this year a team’s current power rating means far less than their current trend. The Big-12, far more than any other conference, is a bunch of teams…all the teams…who are very balanced in their strength, and anybody is capable of beating anybody. As noted last week, the performance against conference strength of schedule looks like a shotgun blast.
To anticipate who is most likely to defeat whom at this point of the season requires a look at who is trending up and who is trending down, rather than the power rating itself.
Kansas is a good example of this, and right now the Jhawks appear to be the best performing team in the conference. Their power rating has risen to a power ranking of 23rd, but that is just a season average that includes the early season poorer performances. We will find out soon if they can help Iowa State by beating Colorado.
This probably should not be that surprising because Kansas, who was expected to be a conference contender, is perhaps healthier now than they were to start the season. Thus, they are arguably back to playing at the “conference contender” level, but unfortunately, they started the season with too many losses to catch up. But their early power rating and their losses mean nothing regarding who they can beat now.
And so the conference goes…the leader board early on is not a predictor for how teams will continue to play, or even make the CCG.
IOWA STATE
The conference has current performing “have’s” and “have not’s”, and unfortunately Iowa State is a one of the recent have nots. I don’t think anybody needs graphs and charts to figure that out, but they do show how bad things are.
To be fair, the Cygarin Ratings, though it analyzes a lot, doesn’t track the recent trends of all teams in the conference. It tracks the trends of only the Cyclones and the team’s the Cyclones are playing this week. So it is hard to tell where Iowa State stands in the conference compared to all teams “recent” abilities, and that is a big factor this year with teams being so tight.
Jeff Sagarin has a couple of categories that try that though, having a “Recent” power rating category, and also a “Most Recent” category. In both categories, Iowa State is still holding it’s own at 23rd and 24th respectively…suggesting that…. relative to all other teams right now… the Cyclone slide isn’t nearly as bad as it appears. That said, per the Cygarin Ratings, it certainly doesn’t good.
The Cygarin Ratings trend shows that the Cyclones have been in a major slide ever since Baylor, where the Clones peaked at a power rating level equivalent to solid top-5 in the county. Trying to muster an optimistic view, the good news is that the Cyclones started on a pretty high hill before starting to slide down.
But the trend has been persistently down since then and has recently stabilized somewhat over the last three games. Over the last three games Iowa State has been averaging playing about seven points below their current 21st level, which comes in at about a mid-50’s power ranking range. That is scary bad for a team that was once playing solid top-5 ball. Right now we are playing about 20 points below our high-water mark.
There are two things to consider though….
First, the Cygarin Ratings trend uses season long data of other teams, not recent data. So the downward trend shows only the Iowa State’s performance against other teams’ season average.
Again I refer to Kansas. The trend assumes we lost to a team that is currently power ranked 23rd, which is pretty good. But it could very well be that the Cyclones lost to a Jhawk team that is playing at a top-5 level right now. Indeed, last week’s analysis of them suggests they are. If that is the case, then Iowa State’s performance last week is not as bad as trends suggest. So keep that in mind.
The other thing to consider is the impact that injuries have had on this team, and that is two-fold.
We have lost our most talented players, but also many of the replacements are particularly inexperienced. The opposing teams now have game tape on these inexperienced players, see their “tells” and are exploiting them. When there is no bad team in the conference, that can result in a few consequential big scoring plays…and that seems to be Iowa State’s problem. That is fixable with time, but is there enough time left matter?
So, to wrap up the Cyclones’ predicament at this point of the season, we are hurting. But whether we continue to hurt depends on what condition other teams are in relative to us, and whether Iowa State can either get healthy and/or get experienced real fast. Only Campbell and his staff knows the answer to that.
As hard as it seems to believe, Iowa State is still in solid contention for the CCG...with some help from Kansas... if we can get by Cincy. So the team is still playing for more than just a bowl game.
As is, the recent trend is all that matters until it changes, and that has Iowa State performance at about a 55th performance level right now. But a play or two here or there could have made a difference in the past, and could in the future.
CINCINNATI
There is some good news for Iowa State regarding its next opponent. Cincy is power rated 43rd. Also, their trends support that or less, as do Sagarin’s Recent and Most Recent ratings.
Actually the Bearcats are in bit of their own slide, although not as bad as Iowa State’s is. Just the same. We will take whatever we can get.
Cincy has played most of their relevant season about ten points above their current rating, which was about a top-10 level of performance. This did though come against some of the weaker P4 caliber opponents, whereby four of their last five opponents have been UCF, TTU, Colorado, and West Virginia some of the better performing teams recently.
Winning or losing though has been a mixed bag for them, with wins against UCF and Arizona State (another recently upward trending team), but losses against Texas Tech and West Virginia.
The Bearcats overall conference record is highly reflective of the shotgun blast result. They have a quality win against UCF on the road, but also have a bad loss against West Virginia at home. That is assuming there is such a thing as a quality win or a bad loss in the Big-12 conference this year.
The Bearcats have shown a rather consistent downward trend in the last five games too with their last game against West Virginia at home being about ten points below their current rating, or about an 80th rating equivalent.
That is just the last game only though, and the question is whether it represents a continuation of the trend or not. Including all recent games suggest an average performance of about three to five points below their current rating, or in the range of about mid-50’s to 60th.
Interestingly, their performance against strength of schedule shows that the Bearcats are playing slightly better against better opponents, which is unusual.
As with all teams in the conference, the question for Cincy is whether the trends continue or not, but regarding Iowa State…it appears that the Cyclones are finally facing a team that is also down on their luck as of late.
IOWA STATE VS. CINCINNATI
Honestly, the look from 50,000 feet up suggests that every game in the Big-12 is a coin toss. Any analysis could stop there.
Recent trends may suggest who has a slight advantage, but even that hasn’t been a solid predictor. So it’s hard to suggest that this game is anything other than a pick’em game using that either.
If I had to depend on trends an make a pick one way or the other, then I’ll suggest that Iowa State’s downward trend has stabilized somewhat with a performance around the mid-50’s, and the Cyclones have the benefit of home field advantage.
Also, Cincy is a potentially a weaker opponent than we have faced the last few games, so perhaps that means that Bearcats are not quite as capable of exploiting our current weaknesses as other recent teams have.
Using recent trends for Cincy, their current performance can be detuned about five points, putting them about 60th.
So combine the trends of both teams with Iowa State’s home field advantage, that suggests the Cyclones by about seven points, or about a 67% chance of winning.
I’ll split the two and go with the Cyclones by three…or about a 57% chance of winning at home.
(In my opinion.)
To anticipate who is most likely to defeat whom at this point of the season requires a look at who is trending up and who is trending down, rather than the power rating itself.
Kansas is a good example of this, and right now the Jhawks appear to be the best performing team in the conference. Their power rating has risen to a power ranking of 23rd, but that is just a season average that includes the early season poorer performances. We will find out soon if they can help Iowa State by beating Colorado.
This probably should not be that surprising because Kansas, who was expected to be a conference contender, is perhaps healthier now than they were to start the season. Thus, they are arguably back to playing at the “conference contender” level, but unfortunately, they started the season with too many losses to catch up. But their early power rating and their losses mean nothing regarding who they can beat now.
And so the conference goes…the leader board early on is not a predictor for how teams will continue to play, or even make the CCG.
IOWA STATE
The conference has current performing “have’s” and “have not’s”, and unfortunately Iowa State is a one of the recent have nots. I don’t think anybody needs graphs and charts to figure that out, but they do show how bad things are.
To be fair, the Cygarin Ratings, though it analyzes a lot, doesn’t track the recent trends of all teams in the conference. It tracks the trends of only the Cyclones and the team’s the Cyclones are playing this week. So it is hard to tell where Iowa State stands in the conference compared to all teams “recent” abilities, and that is a big factor this year with teams being so tight.
Jeff Sagarin has a couple of categories that try that though, having a “Recent” power rating category, and also a “Most Recent” category. In both categories, Iowa State is still holding it’s own at 23rd and 24th respectively…suggesting that…. relative to all other teams right now… the Cyclone slide isn’t nearly as bad as it appears. That said, per the Cygarin Ratings, it certainly doesn’t good.
The Cygarin Ratings trend shows that the Cyclones have been in a major slide ever since Baylor, where the Clones peaked at a power rating level equivalent to solid top-5 in the county. Trying to muster an optimistic view, the good news is that the Cyclones started on a pretty high hill before starting to slide down.
But the trend has been persistently down since then and has recently stabilized somewhat over the last three games. Over the last three games Iowa State has been averaging playing about seven points below their current 21st level, which comes in at about a mid-50’s power ranking range. That is scary bad for a team that was once playing solid top-5 ball. Right now we are playing about 20 points below our high-water mark.
There are two things to consider though….
First, the Cygarin Ratings trend uses season long data of other teams, not recent data. So the downward trend shows only the Iowa State’s performance against other teams’ season average.
Again I refer to Kansas. The trend assumes we lost to a team that is currently power ranked 23rd, which is pretty good. But it could very well be that the Cyclones lost to a Jhawk team that is playing at a top-5 level right now. Indeed, last week’s analysis of them suggests they are. If that is the case, then Iowa State’s performance last week is not as bad as trends suggest. So keep that in mind.
The other thing to consider is the impact that injuries have had on this team, and that is two-fold.
We have lost our most talented players, but also many of the replacements are particularly inexperienced. The opposing teams now have game tape on these inexperienced players, see their “tells” and are exploiting them. When there is no bad team in the conference, that can result in a few consequential big scoring plays…and that seems to be Iowa State’s problem. That is fixable with time, but is there enough time left matter?
So, to wrap up the Cyclones’ predicament at this point of the season, we are hurting. But whether we continue to hurt depends on what condition other teams are in relative to us, and whether Iowa State can either get healthy and/or get experienced real fast. Only Campbell and his staff knows the answer to that.
As hard as it seems to believe, Iowa State is still in solid contention for the CCG...with some help from Kansas... if we can get by Cincy. So the team is still playing for more than just a bowl game.
As is, the recent trend is all that matters until it changes, and that has Iowa State performance at about a 55th performance level right now. But a play or two here or there could have made a difference in the past, and could in the future.
CINCINNATI
There is some good news for Iowa State regarding its next opponent. Cincy is power rated 43rd. Also, their trends support that or less, as do Sagarin’s Recent and Most Recent ratings.
Actually the Bearcats are in bit of their own slide, although not as bad as Iowa State’s is. Just the same. We will take whatever we can get.
Cincy has played most of their relevant season about ten points above their current rating, which was about a top-10 level of performance. This did though come against some of the weaker P4 caliber opponents, whereby four of their last five opponents have been UCF, TTU, Colorado, and West Virginia some of the better performing teams recently.
Winning or losing though has been a mixed bag for them, with wins against UCF and Arizona State (another recently upward trending team), but losses against Texas Tech and West Virginia.
The Bearcats overall conference record is highly reflective of the shotgun blast result. They have a quality win against UCF on the road, but also have a bad loss against West Virginia at home. That is assuming there is such a thing as a quality win or a bad loss in the Big-12 conference this year.
The Bearcats have shown a rather consistent downward trend in the last five games too with their last game against West Virginia at home being about ten points below their current rating, or about an 80th rating equivalent.
That is just the last game only though, and the question is whether it represents a continuation of the trend or not. Including all recent games suggest an average performance of about three to five points below their current rating, or in the range of about mid-50’s to 60th.
Interestingly, their performance against strength of schedule shows that the Bearcats are playing slightly better against better opponents, which is unusual.
As with all teams in the conference, the question for Cincy is whether the trends continue or not, but regarding Iowa State…it appears that the Cyclones are finally facing a team that is also down on their luck as of late.
IOWA STATE VS. CINCINNATI
Honestly, the look from 50,000 feet up suggests that every game in the Big-12 is a coin toss. Any analysis could stop there.
Recent trends may suggest who has a slight advantage, but even that hasn’t been a solid predictor. So it’s hard to suggest that this game is anything other than a pick’em game using that either.
If I had to depend on trends an make a pick one way or the other, then I’ll suggest that Iowa State’s downward trend has stabilized somewhat with a performance around the mid-50’s, and the Cyclones have the benefit of home field advantage.
Also, Cincy is a potentially a weaker opponent than we have faced the last few games, so perhaps that means that Bearcats are not quite as capable of exploiting our current weaknesses as other recent teams have.
Using recent trends for Cincy, their current performance can be detuned about five points, putting them about 60th.
So combine the trends of both teams with Iowa State’s home field advantage, that suggests the Cyclones by about seven points, or about a 67% chance of winning.
I’ll split the two and go with the Cyclones by three…or about a 57% chance of winning at home.
(In my opinion.)
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