Week 8 is upon us and Iowa State finds itself in uncharted territory with a 6-0 record and going for an unprecedented 7th undefeated win. We also just became bowl eligible, something that silently slipped by while Cyclone fans aspire for more lofty objectives than that previously cherished milestone. How times have changed.
The Big-12 remains a highly competitive conference from top to bottom. Case in point Arizona has a win against an upper tier opponent/venue, beating Utah on the road. But they lost to a lower tier opponent, Texas Tech at home. Colorado needed double overtime to beat Baylor at home, but handily beat UCF on the road, and lost to Kansas State by only three points.
It will be difficult for anybody to go through this conference undefeated. As noted before there are still seven teams in the conference that have viable shots at making the CCG.
Iowa State finds itself challenged with UCF at home this week… a lower-tier opponent on our schedule, and a must-win if Iowa State wants to maintain its position at the top of the conference race. Only two teams so far this year have lost to a conference opponent equal to or lower than Central Florida at home.
CENTRAL FLORIDA
Central Florida fills out the last of Iowa State’s bottom five opponents on their schedule (adjusted for home field advantage), currently coming in ninth out of twelve. They have currently about the same power ranking as Baylor.
UCF is power ranked 51st this week by Sagarin, and 47th by Massey, so they generally agree with each other. They are 1-2 in conference with a win against TCU on the road, but losses to 40th Cincy and 34th Colorado at home. All three of those opponents are more or less in the middle of the conference strength of schedule.
In between the Cincy and Colorado losses, the Knights lost to non-conference foe Florida 13-24 on the road, resulting in three losses in a row. Florida is ranked 27th, and on the road they are about an 18th ranked equivalent, so Florida stands as the toughest opponent that UCF has played this year.
Central Florida’s highest ranked win to date is against 56th ranked TCU on the road, which comes in at about a 40th ranked equivalent.
Through the entire course of the season the Knights’ performance has been in a steady downward trend, with their most recent performance being in the range of five points below their rating. The lone outlier to the trendline is an exceptional beatdown by Colorado by 27 points. In some ways UCF’s trend is not unlike Oklahoma State’s although not quite as severe.
Against the strength of schedule, the trend is similar, showing a downward trend against stronger opponents. This trend does taper off somewhat though, with UCF playing at just slightly under their current rating against the stronger opponents.
If there is one area that UCF indicates having a bit of a stronger point, it is their best performances against their stronger opponents have come on the road. At TCU they played about three points above their rating, and at Florida they played about three points below.
Overall, against P4 competition, the Knights have averaged about three points below their current rating, or about a mid-60’s ranking.
To date there is no indication that the Knights have been capable of playing notably above their ranking against top-50 opponents.
Please note that “has been” does not necessarily mean they can’t. Central Florida is loaded with transfer talent and was considered by some to have an outside shot at the conference title. That talent could kick in at any time.
IOWA STATE
The hardest part of analyzing Iowa State..still…is figuring out if their capability is legitimately top-15 or not. The Cyclones are still largely untested against elite competition.
A road win against Iowa this year is pretty close to being an elite performance, but that’s been a while ago. And likewise, Iowa hasn’t really validated their 16th ranking either, losing to Iowa State at home, and losing soundly at Ohio State. So it is hard to tell the value of Iowa’s win yet.
That said, Iowa State is definitely deserving of being in the top-10 in the polls, but polls are based on records and not so much on performance against a strength of schedule.
To be fair, Iowa State’s SOS is now slightly above average and stands at 37th. There are only two teams in the power ranked top-10 that have a stronger strength of schedule than Iowa State does right now.
Conversely though, only one top-10 power rated team has played just one other top-30 opponent. All others have played two or more. That level of competition for Iowa State won’t come until the end of the season.
Because of Iowa State’s lack of top caliber competition to validate their strength, the Cyclones will remain a team whose power ranking value is questionable, and resultantly they may be more prone to losses against teams ranked below them than their rating suggests.
In the meantime though, Iowa State is most certainly achieving top-10 caliber margins against average opponents, winning every game lower than Iowa by double digits. Central Florida of course, is another opponent in that average range where the Cyclones have found success so far.
In addition to the Clones’ lofty rating, their trends are fantastic….
Against Houston, Baylor, and West Virginia...Iowa State’s last three games…the Cyclones have played exactly ten points above their current power rating. Additionally, the Cyclones have not played below their rating since the season opener against North Dakota.
The performance trend against the strength of schedule is no disappointment either, standing mostly steady in the ten-over range until dropping a few in our game against Iowa, our toughest competition to date. But even that was a performance slightly above our ranking.
A solid argument can be made that Iowa State is averaging seven points over their rating over the course of the entire season, and ten points over recently, which would put the Cyclones at a lofty No. 1 or 2 in the country performance-wise.
To summarize…
To date, Iowa State has not played below their top-10 rating since 115th ranked North Dakota, though most of that has come against average or lower teams.
Please note that “has been” does not necessarily mean they “can’t”.
UCF vs IOWA STATE
Straight the Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 12-point favorite over UCF, with an 80% chance of winning.
Factoring in the performance trends, Iowa State arguably is seven points better than that…and perhaps ten points better when playing against teams ranked in the realm that Central Florida finds themselves.
UCF trends go the other way and suggest that the Knights are playing about 3 points below their rating against average and better teams.
But like Iowa State, they haven’t really faced an opponent ranked as high as Iowa State is. To their credit their best performances have been on the road, and this is a road game for them. I don’t put a lot of value into that though since UCF has played only two road games all year.
Applying the trends of both teams, it suggests that the projected margin for this game could be as much as thirteen points more than straight-up does…ten for Iowa State’s over performance and three for UCF’s under performance.
That would come out as a 25-point projected spread. Under those circumstances the Cyclone’s chances of winning leap to the 95% range.
Also, Iowa State still has yet to play a solid four quarters of football. And should they against Central Florida, the potential is there for a runaway. But, the odds are just as good though that the Cyclones are due to come out flat. Probability works both ways, so let’s be careful.
I don’t think Iowa State’s chances are 95%. But I do believe that should the Cyclones win…that is, not come out flat and screw the pooch…conditions are favorable that the margin could be notably higher than the projected 12-point spread.
Just remember that 80% is four out of five…and every team is statistically prone to facing that fifth game with a loss. As noted before, nobody in the conference is likely to go undefeated. It’s just a matter of when and whom. UCF is competent and fully capable of making that happen.
Final assessment: 80% chance of winning, with a margin anywhere from 12 to 25 points.
(In my opinion.)
The Big-12 remains a highly competitive conference from top to bottom. Case in point Arizona has a win against an upper tier opponent/venue, beating Utah on the road. But they lost to a lower tier opponent, Texas Tech at home. Colorado needed double overtime to beat Baylor at home, but handily beat UCF on the road, and lost to Kansas State by only three points.
It will be difficult for anybody to go through this conference undefeated. As noted before there are still seven teams in the conference that have viable shots at making the CCG.
Iowa State finds itself challenged with UCF at home this week… a lower-tier opponent on our schedule, and a must-win if Iowa State wants to maintain its position at the top of the conference race. Only two teams so far this year have lost to a conference opponent equal to or lower than Central Florida at home.
CENTRAL FLORIDA
Central Florida fills out the last of Iowa State’s bottom five opponents on their schedule (adjusted for home field advantage), currently coming in ninth out of twelve. They have currently about the same power ranking as Baylor.
UCF is power ranked 51st this week by Sagarin, and 47th by Massey, so they generally agree with each other. They are 1-2 in conference with a win against TCU on the road, but losses to 40th Cincy and 34th Colorado at home. All three of those opponents are more or less in the middle of the conference strength of schedule.
In between the Cincy and Colorado losses, the Knights lost to non-conference foe Florida 13-24 on the road, resulting in three losses in a row. Florida is ranked 27th, and on the road they are about an 18th ranked equivalent, so Florida stands as the toughest opponent that UCF has played this year.
Central Florida’s highest ranked win to date is against 56th ranked TCU on the road, which comes in at about a 40th ranked equivalent.
Through the entire course of the season the Knights’ performance has been in a steady downward trend, with their most recent performance being in the range of five points below their rating. The lone outlier to the trendline is an exceptional beatdown by Colorado by 27 points. In some ways UCF’s trend is not unlike Oklahoma State’s although not quite as severe.
Against the strength of schedule, the trend is similar, showing a downward trend against stronger opponents. This trend does taper off somewhat though, with UCF playing at just slightly under their current rating against the stronger opponents.
If there is one area that UCF indicates having a bit of a stronger point, it is their best performances against their stronger opponents have come on the road. At TCU they played about three points above their rating, and at Florida they played about three points below.
Overall, against P4 competition, the Knights have averaged about three points below their current rating, or about a mid-60’s ranking.
To date there is no indication that the Knights have been capable of playing notably above their ranking against top-50 opponents.
Please note that “has been” does not necessarily mean they can’t. Central Florida is loaded with transfer talent and was considered by some to have an outside shot at the conference title. That talent could kick in at any time.
IOWA STATE
The hardest part of analyzing Iowa State..still…is figuring out if their capability is legitimately top-15 or not. The Cyclones are still largely untested against elite competition.
A road win against Iowa this year is pretty close to being an elite performance, but that’s been a while ago. And likewise, Iowa hasn’t really validated their 16th ranking either, losing to Iowa State at home, and losing soundly at Ohio State. So it is hard to tell the value of Iowa’s win yet.
That said, Iowa State is definitely deserving of being in the top-10 in the polls, but polls are based on records and not so much on performance against a strength of schedule.
To be fair, Iowa State’s SOS is now slightly above average and stands at 37th. There are only two teams in the power ranked top-10 that have a stronger strength of schedule than Iowa State does right now.
Conversely though, only one top-10 power rated team has played just one other top-30 opponent. All others have played two or more. That level of competition for Iowa State won’t come until the end of the season.
Because of Iowa State’s lack of top caliber competition to validate their strength, the Cyclones will remain a team whose power ranking value is questionable, and resultantly they may be more prone to losses against teams ranked below them than their rating suggests.
In the meantime though, Iowa State is most certainly achieving top-10 caliber margins against average opponents, winning every game lower than Iowa by double digits. Central Florida of course, is another opponent in that average range where the Cyclones have found success so far.
In addition to the Clones’ lofty rating, their trends are fantastic….
Against Houston, Baylor, and West Virginia...Iowa State’s last three games…the Cyclones have played exactly ten points above their current power rating. Additionally, the Cyclones have not played below their rating since the season opener against North Dakota.
The performance trend against the strength of schedule is no disappointment either, standing mostly steady in the ten-over range until dropping a few in our game against Iowa, our toughest competition to date. But even that was a performance slightly above our ranking.
A solid argument can be made that Iowa State is averaging seven points over their rating over the course of the entire season, and ten points over recently, which would put the Cyclones at a lofty No. 1 or 2 in the country performance-wise.
To summarize…
To date, Iowa State has not played below their top-10 rating since 115th ranked North Dakota, though most of that has come against average or lower teams.
Please note that “has been” does not necessarily mean they “can’t”.
UCF vs IOWA STATE
Straight the Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 12-point favorite over UCF, with an 80% chance of winning.
Factoring in the performance trends, Iowa State arguably is seven points better than that…and perhaps ten points better when playing against teams ranked in the realm that Central Florida finds themselves.
UCF trends go the other way and suggest that the Knights are playing about 3 points below their rating against average and better teams.
But like Iowa State, they haven’t really faced an opponent ranked as high as Iowa State is. To their credit their best performances have been on the road, and this is a road game for them. I don’t put a lot of value into that though since UCF has played only two road games all year.
Applying the trends of both teams, it suggests that the projected margin for this game could be as much as thirteen points more than straight-up does…ten for Iowa State’s over performance and three for UCF’s under performance.
That would come out as a 25-point projected spread. Under those circumstances the Cyclone’s chances of winning leap to the 95% range.
Also, Iowa State still has yet to play a solid four quarters of football. And should they against Central Florida, the potential is there for a runaway. But, the odds are just as good though that the Cyclones are due to come out flat. Probability works both ways, so let’s be careful.
I don’t think Iowa State’s chances are 95%. But I do believe that should the Cyclones win…that is, not come out flat and screw the pooch…conditions are favorable that the margin could be notably higher than the projected 12-point spread.
Just remember that 80% is four out of five…and every team is statistically prone to facing that fifth game with a loss. As noted before, nobody in the conference is likely to go undefeated. It’s just a matter of when and whom. UCF is competent and fully capable of making that happen.
Final assessment: 80% chance of winning, with a margin anywhere from 12 to 25 points.
(In my opinion.)
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