This week's analysis sort of surprises me. I expected to see some trends that suggested that both teams are playing differently than what their current ratings show. That turns out to not be the case.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is power ranked 16th. But let’s be careful, the difference between 16th and 30th is only four points, or little more than a field goal. So being ranked 16th is a little bit of fool’s gold when trying to compare it with lower ranked teams. Honestly, anyone from 15th to almost 40th can be considered to be top-25 caliber candidates.
There does appear to be an upward trend for the Cyclones since the beginning of the season, but that gets negated somewhat because the last two games have been against two of the three lowest ranked teams we pay all season. We need more data against tougher opponents to see whether there is an improvement trend or not.
Houston was a performance eight points better than expected for our (and their) current rating and does carry more significance that North Dakota and Arkansas State. The Cougs are power ranked 82nd, but even 82nd is about 12 to 14 points better than the other two, or about half the expected margin over those two. So Houston merits being a legitimate P4 data sample for the Clones, albeit the lower end.
Iowa is ranked right behind the Cyclones at 18th, and playing them or the road bumps their equivalent up to about 11th. So if Iowa’s ranking holds, the win over the Beaks is a very significant win by three points better than expected against an 11th ranked equivalent team, home field advantage giving the Hawks the boost.
Will Iowa’s ranking hold? It actually might despite being hard to believe considering how one dimensional their offense is. The Hawk’s close loss to a 16th ranked team is a solid data point supporting their ranking. That said, it was a rivalry game and they still lost it, at home.
But assuming that Minnesota’s 50’s ranking holds, then beating the Gophers by 13 on the road is a pretty respectable data point too. So it may turn out that Iowa State’s win over Iowa is a quality win after all. Then again, top-15 caliber performances against mid-level teams, winning against top-15 teams themselves is a Kirk Ferentz trademark. Which is what the Iowa State game may turn out to be.
We’ll know a lot more about Iowa’s capabilities...and therefore the quality of win for Iowa State... after they play Ohio State tomorrow, but I think chances are there that Ohio State doesn’t walk away in this game. (Cygarin Ratings have the Buckeyes by 12.)
Make note that Ohio State is completely untested against anybody in the top-50 , so their top billing has not yet been proven on the field. This may turn out to be one more of those games where Iowa plays an-over ranked Big-10 team early, only to find out later it wasn’t what it was hype to be. I doubt it, but we'll see.
BAYLOR
This is the part of the analysis that surprised me the most this week. I fully expected to see the Bears on an upward trend. Actually, their season trend is downward, though that shouldn’t be a surprise considering their last couple games were against stiffer competition than the first games.
Against the strength of schedule is also no surprise either, with a weaker performance against better teams than their softer opponents. Noteworthy is that Baylor has virtually not played a single game below their power ranking, the only one being only .55 below. But their performance against their stronger opponents is right at their power ranking, so that still holds.
The difference between Baylor and most other teams is that the Bears have been brutally tested early, having played two of the tougher teams in the conference in their first two games. Add Iowa State as their next game, and Baylor has played a nasty first three conference game stretch.
So overall I think Baylor’s rating is fairly valid right where it stands with the Bears coming in at 47th.
But note that so far this year, forties is very competitive, as indicated by the Bears’ overtime loss to 40’s ranked Colorado and their six point loss to bottom 20’s ranked BYU at home.
IOWA STATE VS. BAYLOR
So as it turns out, both teams have nearly identical and normal trend patterns, just that Iowa State's is at a higher level than Balor's is.
There is nothing for me to go against both team’s current power ratings, nor the Cygarin Ratings's projections. They have both been validated against worthy opponents, and all trends suggest that both teams are rated right where the belong at this time.
To be fair, Baylor has been slightly more battle tested than Iowa State has, so there is that. Add to that, Iowa State has shown their fair share of first-half uglies that (so far) they have overcome in the second half.
The Cygarin Ratings suggest the Cyclones by ten in this game, which comes out to being about a 75% chance of winning.
I’m sticking with exactly that. This is a balanced conference and there are going to be few games where anyone gets a walk in the park. I expect this game to be a game all the way through to the end, but the odds do favor Iowa State coming out on top.
So according to the Cygarin Ratings, this game has all the indicators of going exactly to Hoyle. Which means it probably won’t because Murphy is a huge football fan and has more clout than Hoyle does. We just don't know if Murphy is a Cyclone fan or a Bears fan yet.
(In my opinion.)
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is power ranked 16th. But let’s be careful, the difference between 16th and 30th is only four points, or little more than a field goal. So being ranked 16th is a little bit of fool’s gold when trying to compare it with lower ranked teams. Honestly, anyone from 15th to almost 40th can be considered to be top-25 caliber candidates.
There does appear to be an upward trend for the Cyclones since the beginning of the season, but that gets negated somewhat because the last two games have been against two of the three lowest ranked teams we pay all season. We need more data against tougher opponents to see whether there is an improvement trend or not.
Houston was a performance eight points better than expected for our (and their) current rating and does carry more significance that North Dakota and Arkansas State. The Cougs are power ranked 82nd, but even 82nd is about 12 to 14 points better than the other two, or about half the expected margin over those two. So Houston merits being a legitimate P4 data sample for the Clones, albeit the lower end.
Iowa is ranked right behind the Cyclones at 18th, and playing them or the road bumps their equivalent up to about 11th. So if Iowa’s ranking holds, the win over the Beaks is a very significant win by three points better than expected against an 11th ranked equivalent team, home field advantage giving the Hawks the boost.
Will Iowa’s ranking hold? It actually might despite being hard to believe considering how one dimensional their offense is. The Hawk’s close loss to a 16th ranked team is a solid data point supporting their ranking. That said, it was a rivalry game and they still lost it, at home.
But assuming that Minnesota’s 50’s ranking holds, then beating the Gophers by 13 on the road is a pretty respectable data point too. So it may turn out that Iowa State’s win over Iowa is a quality win after all. Then again, top-15 caliber performances against mid-level teams, winning against top-15 teams themselves is a Kirk Ferentz trademark. Which is what the Iowa State game may turn out to be.
We’ll know a lot more about Iowa’s capabilities...and therefore the quality of win for Iowa State... after they play Ohio State tomorrow, but I think chances are there that Ohio State doesn’t walk away in this game. (Cygarin Ratings have the Buckeyes by 12.)
Make note that Ohio State is completely untested against anybody in the top-50 , so their top billing has not yet been proven on the field. This may turn out to be one more of those games where Iowa plays an-over ranked Big-10 team early, only to find out later it wasn’t what it was hype to be. I doubt it, but we'll see.
BAYLOR
This is the part of the analysis that surprised me the most this week. I fully expected to see the Bears on an upward trend. Actually, their season trend is downward, though that shouldn’t be a surprise considering their last couple games were against stiffer competition than the first games.
Against the strength of schedule is also no surprise either, with a weaker performance against better teams than their softer opponents. Noteworthy is that Baylor has virtually not played a single game below their power ranking, the only one being only .55 below. But their performance against their stronger opponents is right at their power ranking, so that still holds.
The difference between Baylor and most other teams is that the Bears have been brutally tested early, having played two of the tougher teams in the conference in their first two games. Add Iowa State as their next game, and Baylor has played a nasty first three conference game stretch.
So overall I think Baylor’s rating is fairly valid right where it stands with the Bears coming in at 47th.
But note that so far this year, forties is very competitive, as indicated by the Bears’ overtime loss to 40’s ranked Colorado and their six point loss to bottom 20’s ranked BYU at home.
IOWA STATE VS. BAYLOR
So as it turns out, both teams have nearly identical and normal trend patterns, just that Iowa State's is at a higher level than Balor's is.
There is nothing for me to go against both team’s current power ratings, nor the Cygarin Ratings's projections. They have both been validated against worthy opponents, and all trends suggest that both teams are rated right where the belong at this time.
To be fair, Baylor has been slightly more battle tested than Iowa State has, so there is that. Add to that, Iowa State has shown their fair share of first-half uglies that (so far) they have overcome in the second half.
The Cygarin Ratings suggest the Cyclones by ten in this game, which comes out to being about a 75% chance of winning.
I’m sticking with exactly that. This is a balanced conference and there are going to be few games where anyone gets a walk in the park. I expect this game to be a game all the way through to the end, but the odds do favor Iowa State coming out on top.
So according to the Cygarin Ratings, this game has all the indicators of going exactly to Hoyle. Which means it probably won’t because Murphy is a huge football fan and has more clout than Hoyle does. We just don't know if Murphy is a Cyclone fan or a Bears fan yet.
(In my opinion.)
