I have done an analysis of the conference race based on performance within the conference. I could analyze this a million ways to Sunday and no matter what I do, I come up with four teams that are identical in strength, and identical in their abilities going forward.
That however, does not mean that the race for the conference is identical. This year in particular, the issues aren't whether a team has ability to win.....but rather the ability to screw the pooch (or avoid it.).
With that said, here is what my analysis suggests....
1. KANSAS STATE
Not surprisingly to anyone, the Wildcats are in the best position to win the conference. They show a probability to win exactly 13 games.
They have also shown to be able to screw the pooch, and have done so once against Texas at home. The Texas loss was the second worse pooch screwing of the top six teams in the conference, but that has been a while ago.
Kansas State also lost to Iowa State at home. Though not a pooch screwing it, it shows the KSU is still fallible in a crunch game. That's something they otherwise weren't showing much of.
Left for the Cats to play yet... is a road game @ TCU, and a home game against Kansas. Both games will be near toss-ups.
Kansas State is in the projected lead, and the conference is theirs to lose. That said, the Cats are by no means on solid ground. Any game they lose to a contender, is going to tie up the lead chances with THAT other team.
2. TEXAS TECH
This one might surprise some people, but the Red Raiders are in a pretty good spot. They are projected to win 12.2 games probability-wise.
Tech has one good thing going for them that the other contenders cannot claim...they haven't screwed the pooch and lost a game the shouldn't have. That gives them a game advantage over teams that otherwise have proven they can play better than the Raiders.
The other thing going for them is that they have only two difficult games left and they are both road games, @ TCU, and @ Iowa State. Their other games are relatively easy, and as noted seem to have good control of those games.
Thus, the game at Iowa State stands out huge...for both Iowa State and Texas Tech. Any game that Tech loses to a contender.....will drop them out of contention. Of course, that's true for ISU and KSU as well.
3. IOWA STATE
The Clones are in third, but that's splitting hairs. They are project just barely behind Texas Tech at 12.02 games.
Here is the quirk....Iowa State has the best resume in the conference...."IF" you ignore the screw the pooch factor (TCU). Therefore they are the most likely (albeit slightly) team to be able to win any remaining games against the other contenders.
Iowa State also has the benefit of having the worst of the worst games behind them....their road games against the five best teams in the conference....Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech.
Iowa State's fate probably lies with the road games against Texas and TCU. These are not easy games.... both Texas and TCU are power ranked the top-35.....and both games are Top-15 equivalent games. Still, that's is a slightly better situation than the other contenders have in front of them.
4. KANSAS
Yes, you saw that right...Kansas is in the FOURTH spot! But as I said, we are splitting hairs.
Kansas projects to 11.73 wins, a notch below Iowa State and Texas Tech, but not by enough to make it a notable difference when real games are rounding to full victories or losses.
Actually, Kansas would have had the best overall resume (that is, against the strength of schedule so far) in the conference had they not screwed the pooch against West Virginia. Thus, that pooch screw both may have cost them the conference title....but I don't think that loss should be factored in to J-Hawk's ability to win going forward.
But, at the same time, Kansas has also has shown that they seemingly have a ceiling. The difference between Kansas and the other three teams is that the have a strong ability to win the toss-up games, but not the games where they are slight underdogs. Whereby the other team contenders have shown an ability to win some upset road games.
Overall...Kansas has the most challenging schedule left, with no "virtual projected wins" left on their schedule.
SUMMARY:
TCU is in a position to play the biggest role in the conference race. They sort of got lost in the conference standings, but are still a very good NCAA caliber team. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State...the three top conference contenders…..must travel to TCU, and play a top-15 equivalent opponent.
Baylor too can play a big spoiler role...with games @ Iowa State, @ Kansas State, and @ Kansas still on the slate. For what it is worth, the Bears have shown no ability to win conference games at that high of level. That is...on the road against conference contending caliber teams.
Somebody needs to knock Kansas State down a notch, and preferably two. That almost assuredly must come from either Kansas at home, or at TCU. Both would perfect, and would have the least amount of direct reciprocal consequences to Iowa State's title chances.
Really, it gets seemingly very simple.....Iowa State must become the biggest huge Horned Frog fans in the country....and then extract revenge when we play in their house.
(In my opinion.)
That however, does not mean that the race for the conference is identical. This year in particular, the issues aren't whether a team has ability to win.....but rather the ability to screw the pooch (or avoid it.).
With that said, here is what my analysis suggests....
1. KANSAS STATE
Not surprisingly to anyone, the Wildcats are in the best position to win the conference. They show a probability to win exactly 13 games.
They have also shown to be able to screw the pooch, and have done so once against Texas at home. The Texas loss was the second worse pooch screwing of the top six teams in the conference, but that has been a while ago.
Kansas State also lost to Iowa State at home. Though not a pooch screwing it, it shows the KSU is still fallible in a crunch game. That's something they otherwise weren't showing much of.
Left for the Cats to play yet... is a road game @ TCU, and a home game against Kansas. Both games will be near toss-ups.
Kansas State is in the projected lead, and the conference is theirs to lose. That said, the Cats are by no means on solid ground. Any game they lose to a contender, is going to tie up the lead chances with THAT other team.
2. TEXAS TECH
This one might surprise some people, but the Red Raiders are in a pretty good spot. They are projected to win 12.2 games probability-wise.
Tech has one good thing going for them that the other contenders cannot claim...they haven't screwed the pooch and lost a game the shouldn't have. That gives them a game advantage over teams that otherwise have proven they can play better than the Raiders.
The other thing going for them is that they have only two difficult games left and they are both road games, @ TCU, and @ Iowa State. Their other games are relatively easy, and as noted seem to have good control of those games.
Thus, the game at Iowa State stands out huge...for both Iowa State and Texas Tech. Any game that Tech loses to a contender.....will drop them out of contention. Of course, that's true for ISU and KSU as well.
3. IOWA STATE
The Clones are in third, but that's splitting hairs. They are project just barely behind Texas Tech at 12.02 games.
Here is the quirk....Iowa State has the best resume in the conference...."IF" you ignore the screw the pooch factor (TCU). Therefore they are the most likely (albeit slightly) team to be able to win any remaining games against the other contenders.
Iowa State also has the benefit of having the worst of the worst games behind them....their road games against the five best teams in the conference....Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech.
Iowa State's fate probably lies with the road games against Texas and TCU. These are not easy games.... both Texas and TCU are power ranked the top-35.....and both games are Top-15 equivalent games. Still, that's is a slightly better situation than the other contenders have in front of them.
4. KANSAS
Yes, you saw that right...Kansas is in the FOURTH spot! But as I said, we are splitting hairs.
Kansas projects to 11.73 wins, a notch below Iowa State and Texas Tech, but not by enough to make it a notable difference when real games are rounding to full victories or losses.
Actually, Kansas would have had the best overall resume (that is, against the strength of schedule so far) in the conference had they not screwed the pooch against West Virginia. Thus, that pooch screw both may have cost them the conference title....but I don't think that loss should be factored in to J-Hawk's ability to win going forward.
But, at the same time, Kansas has also has shown that they seemingly have a ceiling. The difference between Kansas and the other three teams is that the have a strong ability to win the toss-up games, but not the games where they are slight underdogs. Whereby the other team contenders have shown an ability to win some upset road games.
Overall...Kansas has the most challenging schedule left, with no "virtual projected wins" left on their schedule.
SUMMARY:
TCU is in a position to play the biggest role in the conference race. They sort of got lost in the conference standings, but are still a very good NCAA caliber team. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State...the three top conference contenders…..must travel to TCU, and play a top-15 equivalent opponent.
Baylor too can play a big spoiler role...with games @ Iowa State, @ Kansas State, and @ Kansas still on the slate. For what it is worth, the Bears have shown no ability to win conference games at that high of level. That is...on the road against conference contending caliber teams.
Somebody needs to knock Kansas State down a notch, and preferably two. That almost assuredly must come from either Kansas at home, or at TCU. Both would perfect, and would have the least amount of direct reciprocal consequences to Iowa State's title chances.
Really, it gets seemingly very simple.....Iowa State must become the biggest huge Horned Frog fans in the country....and then extract revenge when we play in their house.
(In my opinion.)
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