I've been trying to come up with how to show the rising trend by Campbell's team in an easy to understand way, so let me try this.
Below shows what Iowa State's rolling average "ranking" performance was over the course of the season. The first number is an average of the first three games of the season, and the last number is an average of the last three games, all others are four-game averages to better capture the up and down see-sawing that the team experienced game to game....
Iowa State's equivalent ranking performance thru the season......
72nd ranking average performance for first three games based on point spreads
70th
44th
20th
21st
18th
13th
15th
12th
3rd ranking average performance for last three games based on point spreads
As you can see Matt Campbell coached this young team from starting at playing at a level of 72nd in the country in it's first three games, to a level of 3rd in the country in it's last three games. Notice the impact that the Kansas game has on the latter average performances, the last average having dropped Kansas out.
Now let's take a look at the same above performances if I exclude four plays from two latter games: Kansas (pick six, 80 yard pass, referee error), and Texas (blocked extra point)....
72nd
70th
44th
20th
21st
18th
8th
2nd
2nd
Here, Iowa State started the season averaging 72th in the country in its first three games, and if not for four plays.... rose with a consistent and steady trend to the level of playing at an average level equal to 2nd in the country over its last four games (against three top-25 opponents, two top-10).
Here are Iowa State's individual game performances over its last four games, with the four mistakes removed....
Kansas: 7th
BYU: 5 points above No. 1 in the country
Texas: 22nd
KSU: 4 points above No. 1 in the country
What Iowa State has done at the end of the season is not a one or two game anomaly. Actually, with mistakes removed, six of Iowa State's last seven performances were at a top-15 level or better, Baylor being the lone exception. Now you can see why I considered Texas a winnable game. That expected performance did show up, but not until Kansas State. Texas was actually a drop in recent performance.
Lastly....
I noted the Cygarin Theorem last week, which suggests that for a team to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule, you must be a top-25 team yourself. Like everyone else, I was prepared for a 6-6 non-winning record.
Iowa State's regular season strength of schedule finished at 7th in the country after the Kansas State game, and Iowa State finished power ranked 26th. That's close enough, but adjust for the four scoring plays, Iowa State would be solidly in the top-25.
But for Iowa State to start out at 70th in the country, and become good enough to capture a winning record against a top-7 strength of schedule is unheard of, especially considering the tougher part of the schedule was at the end of the season. That required this team to complete the season playing at a top-15 level and better to accomplish such a feat against such a strong schedule.....and they did!
In doing the Cygarin Ratings for over 30 years, I have never seen a football team go from averaging playing at a 70th rating level, to a team averaging playing at a top-10 level. And Coach Campell doing it with such a young team, and such adversity going into the season, and against a top-10 strength of schedule is nearly incomprehensible to me.
And not surprisingly, I have never seen an Iowa State team play at this high of a level of performance, against this strong of a strength of schedule, over any four-game stretch of the season. '76 was probably the only team that comes close.
What Matt Campbell has accomplished this year is something to really be cherished, and despite a 7-5 record, the best coaching up of a team over the course of a season that I have ever witnessed.
(In my opinion.)
Below shows what Iowa State's rolling average "ranking" performance was over the course of the season. The first number is an average of the first three games of the season, and the last number is an average of the last three games, all others are four-game averages to better capture the up and down see-sawing that the team experienced game to game....
Iowa State's equivalent ranking performance thru the season......
72nd ranking average performance for first three games based on point spreads
70th
44th
20th
21st
18th
13th
15th
12th
3rd ranking average performance for last three games based on point spreads
As you can see Matt Campbell coached this young team from starting at playing at a level of 72nd in the country in it's first three games, to a level of 3rd in the country in it's last three games. Notice the impact that the Kansas game has on the latter average performances, the last average having dropped Kansas out.
Now let's take a look at the same above performances if I exclude four plays from two latter games: Kansas (pick six, 80 yard pass, referee error), and Texas (blocked extra point)....
72nd
70th
44th
20th
21st
18th
8th
2nd
2nd
Here, Iowa State started the season averaging 72th in the country in its first three games, and if not for four plays.... rose with a consistent and steady trend to the level of playing at an average level equal to 2nd in the country over its last four games (against three top-25 opponents, two top-10).
Here are Iowa State's individual game performances over its last four games, with the four mistakes removed....
Kansas: 7th
BYU: 5 points above No. 1 in the country
Texas: 22nd
KSU: 4 points above No. 1 in the country
What Iowa State has done at the end of the season is not a one or two game anomaly. Actually, with mistakes removed, six of Iowa State's last seven performances were at a top-15 level or better, Baylor being the lone exception. Now you can see why I considered Texas a winnable game. That expected performance did show up, but not until Kansas State. Texas was actually a drop in recent performance.
Lastly....
I noted the Cygarin Theorem last week, which suggests that for a team to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule, you must be a top-25 team yourself. Like everyone else, I was prepared for a 6-6 non-winning record.
Iowa State's regular season strength of schedule finished at 7th in the country after the Kansas State game, and Iowa State finished power ranked 26th. That's close enough, but adjust for the four scoring plays, Iowa State would be solidly in the top-25.
But for Iowa State to start out at 70th in the country, and become good enough to capture a winning record against a top-7 strength of schedule is unheard of, especially considering the tougher part of the schedule was at the end of the season. That required this team to complete the season playing at a top-15 level and better to accomplish such a feat against such a strong schedule.....and they did!
In doing the Cygarin Ratings for over 30 years, I have never seen a football team go from averaging playing at a 70th rating level, to a team averaging playing at a top-10 level. And Coach Campell doing it with such a young team, and such adversity going into the season, and against a top-10 strength of schedule is nearly incomprehensible to me.
And not surprisingly, I have never seen an Iowa State team play at this high of a level of performance, against this strong of a strength of schedule, over any four-game stretch of the season. '76 was probably the only team that comes close.
What Matt Campbell has accomplished this year is something to really be cherished, and despite a 7-5 record, the best coaching up of a team over the course of a season that I have ever witnessed.
(In my opinion.)
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