There are four remaining CCG contenders. WVU is now essentially out of contention.
There has been a notable rearranging of the rankings of Big-12 teams, altering the probabilities by more than one would expect at this time of year. The Big-12 keeps on tightening up, not spreading out. This is the exact opposite of what normally occurs in conferences as teams tend to settle into a recognizable pecking order.
Actually, my Big-12 conference strength of schedule standings chart looks like it took a shotgun blast. Kansas State losing to Houston and Iowa State losing to Texas Tech are examples of that, but there are lots of others too. All the non-contenders are playing a huge spoiler role.
Iowa State previously had the toughest remaining schedule, but with the conference tightening up all the other contenders' remaining strength of schedules increased in toughness. So a lot of teams are in the same boat. For all practical purposes every remaining game is a toss-up....and every contender is facing about the same challenges trying to make it to the CCG.
Recent trends of teams are going to play a bigger role in future outcomes than overall power ratings. Iowa State is not alone in trending down, and those trends change from week to week. Nothing can be taken for granted, nor are any projections chiseled in stone. It is a really tight and unpredictable pack turning onto the final stretch.
BYU
BYU remains the weakest of the four remaining contenders, but being undefeated they the inside track to the CCG. They also has a slightly easier schedule remaining than the other contenders, but it still has a couple of pick'em games to contend with, and Kansas remains close enough to be considered a tossup.
The Cougars are projected to finish with 7 or 8 wins, but they also have the best chance of winning out.
51% UTAH
62% KANSAS
50% @ARIZONA STATE
77% HOUSTON
COLORADO
Colorado is projected to win 6 to 7 games, and the over/under odds are about even. Texas Tech and Kansas both may be playing better than their rating right now, and may be tougher games than the current odds suggest.
55% @Texas Tech
69% Utah
47% @ Kansas
76% Oklahoma State
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is projected to win 6 or 7 wins. At issue with is whether Iowa State can play at their power ratings or are the trending down. And as noted above, Kansas appears to be playing better than their power rating the last couple of games.
52% N Kansas
70% Cincinnati
57% @ Utah
59% Kansas State
KANSAS STATE
Like Iowa State, Kansas State took a huge hit losing to Houston and now stand with two conference loses. Their power rating also dropped a little. Combined with opponents rising and KSU dropping, their odds of winning each game has changed for the worse a little bit.
The Wildcats are projected to win 5 or 6 games, and odds are surprisingly leaning more towards five than six right now.
64% Arizona State
70% Cincinnati
41% @ Iowa State
WEST VIRGINA
The Mountaineers appear to have fallen out of contention. (But that could change.)
Their power rating has dropped enough that they are now projected to finish with only 4 or 5 wins.
(In my opinion.)
There has been a notable rearranging of the rankings of Big-12 teams, altering the probabilities by more than one would expect at this time of year. The Big-12 keeps on tightening up, not spreading out. This is the exact opposite of what normally occurs in conferences as teams tend to settle into a recognizable pecking order.
Actually, my Big-12 conference strength of schedule standings chart looks like it took a shotgun blast. Kansas State losing to Houston and Iowa State losing to Texas Tech are examples of that, but there are lots of others too. All the non-contenders are playing a huge spoiler role.
Iowa State previously had the toughest remaining schedule, but with the conference tightening up all the other contenders' remaining strength of schedules increased in toughness. So a lot of teams are in the same boat. For all practical purposes every remaining game is a toss-up....and every contender is facing about the same challenges trying to make it to the CCG.
Recent trends of teams are going to play a bigger role in future outcomes than overall power ratings. Iowa State is not alone in trending down, and those trends change from week to week. Nothing can be taken for granted, nor are any projections chiseled in stone. It is a really tight and unpredictable pack turning onto the final stretch.
BYU
BYU remains the weakest of the four remaining contenders, but being undefeated they the inside track to the CCG. They also has a slightly easier schedule remaining than the other contenders, but it still has a couple of pick'em games to contend with, and Kansas remains close enough to be considered a tossup.
The Cougars are projected to finish with 7 or 8 wins, but they also have the best chance of winning out.
51% UTAH
62% KANSAS
50% @ARIZONA STATE
77% HOUSTON
COLORADO
Colorado is projected to win 6 to 7 games, and the over/under odds are about even. Texas Tech and Kansas both may be playing better than their rating right now, and may be tougher games than the current odds suggest.
55% @Texas Tech
69% Utah
47% @ Kansas
76% Oklahoma State
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is projected to win 6 or 7 wins. At issue with is whether Iowa State can play at their power ratings or are the trending down. And as noted above, Kansas appears to be playing better than their power rating the last couple of games.
52% N Kansas
70% Cincinnati
57% @ Utah
59% Kansas State
KANSAS STATE
Like Iowa State, Kansas State took a huge hit losing to Houston and now stand with two conference loses. Their power rating also dropped a little. Combined with opponents rising and KSU dropping, their odds of winning each game has changed for the worse a little bit.
The Wildcats are projected to win 5 or 6 games, and odds are surprisingly leaning more towards five than six right now.
64% Arizona State
70% Cincinnati
41% @ Iowa State
WEST VIRGINA
The Mountaineers appear to have fallen out of contention. (But that could change.)
Their power rating has dropped enough that they are now projected to finish with only 4 or 5 wins.
(In my opinion.)
