Here are how the odds for each team appear to be for the four teams in play for 2nd thru 5th. For all practical purposes, ISU, WVU, and BU have nearly identical power ratings, and are playing nearly identical basketball at this point of the season. OSU is slightly less.
IOWA STATE:
It may be a bit of a surprise to some that Iowa State has the best chances of accomplishing twelve or more wins. But it is soooo slight as to be nearly imperceptible.
Iowa State's chances of beating Oklahoma State at home are 65%.
Iowa State's chances of beating West Virginia on the road are 38%.
That puts Iowa State at 12.03 wins, or obviously rounded down is 12 wins.
Iowa State is the only team with a chance at 13 wins.
BAYLOR
Baylor is now next, with just one game left. Their chances of beating Texas on the road are 68%.
Thus, that puts Baylor at 11.68 wins, or obviously rounded up to 12.
For what it is worth, Baylor did beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State at home, both of these wins being very similar to a win over Baylor, so it is plausible.
WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia is slightly below Baylor. Their chances of beating Iowa State at home are 62%.
Thus, that puts Baylor at 11.62 wins, or obviously that round up to 12.
This is why WVU was so important to me. Had WVU beaten Kansas, then WVU would have had better odds of winning 12 games than Iowa State, and had a real chance at winning 13 games. As it stands...Iowa State stands alone in having a chance at 13 wins.
Furthermore, if WVU had beaten Kansas, it stands to reason that their chances of beating Iowa State were better than I showed above, putting WVU at about a 50-50 chance of finishing with 13 wins.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State has work to do.....
OSU's chances of beating Iowa State on the road are 35%.
OSU's chances of beating Kansas at home are 49%.
Thus, OSU's win total comes to 9.83, obviously rounded to 10.
Noteworthy is that a win over ISU or KU would be their best win of the season other than beating WVU on the road.
The issue I have with WVU though, is that they have been plagued all season with losses all across their SOS. It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I credit WVU with screwing the pooch more than I credit OSU with an earned win.
SUMMARY:
The odds all weigh heavy that this will end up on a three way tie for 2nd place in the conference.
It is going to take somebody to blink to break the tie. The risk is, Iowa State still has two games left where they could blink, whereby the other two have only one.
OSU can be a player for a top four position, but their rating, their record, and their difficult schedule all are working against them.
What some argue is that OSU has their recent tend working for them, and they are a better team than earlier in the season. The Cygarin Ratings disagrees. Rather my contention is that they have been steady through the entire season, but that their difficult early schedule was masking their true abilities.
That's a rather moot contention though. What is germane is that OSU is a team that can beat Iowa State.
By and large, Oklahoma State at home is nearly equal to playing Texas and Iowa on the road.....and we know how that came out.
(In my opinion.)
IOWA STATE:
It may be a bit of a surprise to some that Iowa State has the best chances of accomplishing twelve or more wins. But it is soooo slight as to be nearly imperceptible.
Iowa State's chances of beating Oklahoma State at home are 65%.
Iowa State's chances of beating West Virginia on the road are 38%.
That puts Iowa State at 12.03 wins, or obviously rounded down is 12 wins.
Iowa State is the only team with a chance at 13 wins.
BAYLOR
Baylor is now next, with just one game left. Their chances of beating Texas on the road are 68%.
Thus, that puts Baylor at 11.68 wins, or obviously rounded up to 12.
For what it is worth, Baylor did beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State at home, both of these wins being very similar to a win over Baylor, so it is plausible.
WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia is slightly below Baylor. Their chances of beating Iowa State at home are 62%.
Thus, that puts Baylor at 11.62 wins, or obviously that round up to 12.
This is why WVU was so important to me. Had WVU beaten Kansas, then WVU would have had better odds of winning 12 games than Iowa State, and had a real chance at winning 13 games. As it stands...Iowa State stands alone in having a chance at 13 wins.
Furthermore, if WVU had beaten Kansas, it stands to reason that their chances of beating Iowa State were better than I showed above, putting WVU at about a 50-50 chance of finishing with 13 wins.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State has work to do.....
OSU's chances of beating Iowa State on the road are 35%.
OSU's chances of beating Kansas at home are 49%.
Thus, OSU's win total comes to 9.83, obviously rounded to 10.
Noteworthy is that a win over ISU or KU would be their best win of the season other than beating WVU on the road.
The issue I have with WVU though, is that they have been plagued all season with losses all across their SOS. It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I credit WVU with screwing the pooch more than I credit OSU with an earned win.
SUMMARY:
The odds all weigh heavy that this will end up on a three way tie for 2nd place in the conference.
It is going to take somebody to blink to break the tie. The risk is, Iowa State still has two games left where they could blink, whereby the other two have only one.
OSU can be a player for a top four position, but their rating, their record, and their difficult schedule all are working against them.
What some argue is that OSU has their recent tend working for them, and they are a better team than earlier in the season. The Cygarin Ratings disagrees. Rather my contention is that they have been steady through the entire season, but that their difficult early schedule was masking their true abilities.
That's a rather moot contention though. What is germane is that OSU is a team that can beat Iowa State.
By and large, Oklahoma State at home is nearly equal to playing Texas and Iowa on the road.....and we know how that came out.
(In my opinion.)
