The Cygarin Basketball Ratings have been updated.
First of all, let me just say that I don't think I have ever been as personally upset at our players themselves as I was when the played Iowa. I honestly thought that it was all but impossible to lose that game, even if we played our worst game and they played their best.
Obviously, I didn't take into consideration just how extensive our worst game could be, nor how well Iowa's best could be. Regardless, I consider this as one of the few times where the player's themselves can, and should, be held directly accountable for a loss that should not have happened.
In the last update, I opted not to go into too much detail until after the Iowa game. I did so because I thought that people were grossly underestimating Iowa State and overestimating Iowa. I honestly expected a dominating performance, not just a win.
Frustratingly, I still don' think I was wrong. If they played each other again, I would make the same prediction. I think the team simply did not show up to play.
That aside.....
IOWA
First of all, there was absolutely nothing in the ratings and Iowa's performances that suggested that they had any sort of pulse at the P5 level, indeed they were ranked near the bottom of both the Big-10 and Big-12 in the combined ratings. Their performances against all of their opponents were downright bad.
Even now, Iowa State Stands as their only top-300 win, and for that matter their only above average performance against a top-300 team. Notre Dame was the only top-300 team where they played near the norm of their power rating, which stands at a lofty 84th now, only as result of beating Iowa State.
Even beyond that... Iowa was on a downward trend. There was no indication that this young and inexperienced team was starting to get their act together. Not until they slapped Iowa State.
IOWA STATE
The irony is that Iowa State appeared to be exactly the opposite per the power ratings, though some people saw it differently.
Since Hoiberg came to town, Iowa State has never been a team that showed it's moxy during the pre-conference part of the season. Only when conference play starts do the Clones seem to turn on the jets.
If anything this team was actually appearing better than past teams at this point of the season, solidly playing in the top-25 on average.
What was different was playing a handful of teams of higher caliber, which the power rankings are giving much more credit to opponents than the polls are.....Gonzaga is 10th, Cincinnati is 22nd, and Miami is 24th. Every one of those games, win or lose, Iowa State was adequately competitive at the top-10 to top-25 level.
By and large, when top-25 teams play each other, especially this early in the season, one would expect .500 play out of all of them. As it turns out Iowa State went 1-1-1 in regulation play. That's as .500 as you can get.
The difference between this year and previous years is that Iowa State hasn't played three top-25 teams in the non-conference season.
CONCLUSION
First of all, Iowa is probably going to be better than their schedule to date has indicated. Only time will tell if they are going to be consistently as good as what they showed against Iowa. Honestly, my opinion is that they played that well in part because they were very well prepared and motivated to play Iowa State...but mostly because Iowa State let them.
Indeed, Iowa probably lost to Omaha as a result of looking past them, similar to Iowa State looking past Iowa. Except their loss is far more hurtful to them than our lost to Iowa is (rivalry aside). Iowa may have won bragging rights to the rival game, but they took a blow RPI-wise.
At this point, the analysis indicates that the Iowa game was simply one mother of an anomaly. One that in my book should have never happened.
The rest of the numbers suggest that Iowa State is not only playing "decent" at this point of the season, but really no worse, and slightly better than past seasons at this time. Had we not played three top-25 teams, we probably would not be sitting here wringing our hands.
Indeed, even an outlier loss has not been unusual, last year we lost to 75th ranked UNI, a loss that is not dissimilar to Iowa. The difference though, is that Iowa State should never play an Iowa team with the degree of ambivalence that can happen against mid-major opponents.
Don't get me wrong, this team needs a head check. They could very well be undefeated, ranked in the top-10, and already have three quality wins under their belt.
But, at the same time, there are some positive signs that if this team turns on the switch when conference play starts, and they have worked out all their head issues....it is still a pretty good team.
The polls have dropped Iowa State out of the top-25. The power rankings have not. Indeed, the power rankings have Iowa State 16th because of their performance against top-25 teams, not despite it.
I'm not giving Iowa State a mulligan for the Iowa game, but I'm not giving up on them either. Hopefully, the embarrassment to Iowa was just what the doctor ordered, not that I wanted them to need one.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
First of all, let me just say that I don't think I have ever been as personally upset at our players themselves as I was when the played Iowa. I honestly thought that it was all but impossible to lose that game, even if we played our worst game and they played their best.
Obviously, I didn't take into consideration just how extensive our worst game could be, nor how well Iowa's best could be. Regardless, I consider this as one of the few times where the player's themselves can, and should, be held directly accountable for a loss that should not have happened.
In the last update, I opted not to go into too much detail until after the Iowa game. I did so because I thought that people were grossly underestimating Iowa State and overestimating Iowa. I honestly expected a dominating performance, not just a win.
Frustratingly, I still don' think I was wrong. If they played each other again, I would make the same prediction. I think the team simply did not show up to play.
That aside.....
IOWA
First of all, there was absolutely nothing in the ratings and Iowa's performances that suggested that they had any sort of pulse at the P5 level, indeed they were ranked near the bottom of both the Big-10 and Big-12 in the combined ratings. Their performances against all of their opponents were downright bad.
Even now, Iowa State Stands as their only top-300 win, and for that matter their only above average performance against a top-300 team. Notre Dame was the only top-300 team where they played near the norm of their power rating, which stands at a lofty 84th now, only as result of beating Iowa State.
Even beyond that... Iowa was on a downward trend. There was no indication that this young and inexperienced team was starting to get their act together. Not until they slapped Iowa State.
IOWA STATE
The irony is that Iowa State appeared to be exactly the opposite per the power ratings, though some people saw it differently.
Since Hoiberg came to town, Iowa State has never been a team that showed it's moxy during the pre-conference part of the season. Only when conference play starts do the Clones seem to turn on the jets.
If anything this team was actually appearing better than past teams at this point of the season, solidly playing in the top-25 on average.
What was different was playing a handful of teams of higher caliber, which the power rankings are giving much more credit to opponents than the polls are.....Gonzaga is 10th, Cincinnati is 22nd, and Miami is 24th. Every one of those games, win or lose, Iowa State was adequately competitive at the top-10 to top-25 level.
By and large, when top-25 teams play each other, especially this early in the season, one would expect .500 play out of all of them. As it turns out Iowa State went 1-1-1 in regulation play. That's as .500 as you can get.
The difference between this year and previous years is that Iowa State hasn't played three top-25 teams in the non-conference season.
CONCLUSION
First of all, Iowa is probably going to be better than their schedule to date has indicated. Only time will tell if they are going to be consistently as good as what they showed against Iowa. Honestly, my opinion is that they played that well in part because they were very well prepared and motivated to play Iowa State...but mostly because Iowa State let them.
Indeed, Iowa probably lost to Omaha as a result of looking past them, similar to Iowa State looking past Iowa. Except their loss is far more hurtful to them than our lost to Iowa is (rivalry aside). Iowa may have won bragging rights to the rival game, but they took a blow RPI-wise.
At this point, the analysis indicates that the Iowa game was simply one mother of an anomaly. One that in my book should have never happened.
The rest of the numbers suggest that Iowa State is not only playing "decent" at this point of the season, but really no worse, and slightly better than past seasons at this time. Had we not played three top-25 teams, we probably would not be sitting here wringing our hands.
Indeed, even an outlier loss has not been unusual, last year we lost to 75th ranked UNI, a loss that is not dissimilar to Iowa. The difference though, is that Iowa State should never play an Iowa team with the degree of ambivalence that can happen against mid-major opponents.
Don't get me wrong, this team needs a head check. They could very well be undefeated, ranked in the top-10, and already have three quality wins under their belt.
But, at the same time, there are some positive signs that if this team turns on the switch when conference play starts, and they have worked out all their head issues....it is still a pretty good team.
The polls have dropped Iowa State out of the top-25. The power rankings have not. Indeed, the power rankings have Iowa State 16th because of their performance against top-25 teams, not despite it.
I'm not giving Iowa State a mulligan for the Iowa game, but I'm not giving up on them either. Hopefully, the embarrassment to Iowa was just what the doctor ordered, not that I wanted them to need one.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
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