The Cygarin Basketball Ratings has been updated. At this point in the season there isn't much to offer in the analysis that isn't already obvious.
From what I can see, Iowa State is arguably the team in the conference that is most capable of beating anybody else in the conference, or in the country for that matter....except for their propensity to screw the pooch. The more conference plays out, the more the home TCU and Baylor games standing out.
How bad? Only Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia have worse losses in the conference losses. And West Virginia is the only other team in the conference that has two losses as bad as Iowa State.
People have been comparing Iowa State and Iowa lately.....
Iowa and Iowa State have nearly identical strength of schedules, more or less.
Iowa has zero success against top-15 equivalents to date (0-4), and have balanced success in the range of 15 to 35. Iowa is a near consensus low 30's in most power rankings, and that is pretty accurate in where they belong. I doubt that is going to change much the rest of the season for two reasons. 1. There isn't much left to influence the ratings. 2. Iowa are what they are.
As much as some what to point out Iowa's road woes, that really isn't so much the problem. The fact is that Iowa has a strong correlation to straight-up equivalent power rankings that factors in home court advantage...and Iowa simple isn't good enough to beat the teams they have lost to on the road. They HAVE been good enough to beat their peers and less on the road.
Iowa State, on the hand, is a team that acts like a young but talented puppy....
The Cyclones are remarkable 3-1 against top-15 equivalents, and all three of those were road games. That thar is some serious NCAA Committee Nitty Gritty Report kudos.
Anguishingly, the Clones are 5-7 against teams equivalent ranked between 15th and 60h. With home loses to TCU and Baylor standing out as 60th equivalent sore thumbs. (Arizona is a third but that was early. )
Had we taken care of business against TCU and Baylor, and wave off Arizona as a rogue early game, then Iowa Sate would be sitting without a single sub-25 equivalent loss.
To put that in perspective....no other team with a top-75 strength of schedule can claim to have no sub-25 losses.
We are only two stray pooches from being THAT good and consistent of a team this year.
Put another way though....quit doing that and we are potentially a Conference Tourney Champion, and arguably a solid Sweet-16 team.
Texas: Clones are one point road dogs. And Texas has wins against two teams equivalent power ranked better than Iowa State in their house.
Please note that the spreadsheet now has the conference tournament probabilities now.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
From what I can see, Iowa State is arguably the team in the conference that is most capable of beating anybody else in the conference, or in the country for that matter....except for their propensity to screw the pooch. The more conference plays out, the more the home TCU and Baylor games standing out.
How bad? Only Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia have worse losses in the conference losses. And West Virginia is the only other team in the conference that has two losses as bad as Iowa State.
People have been comparing Iowa State and Iowa lately.....
Iowa and Iowa State have nearly identical strength of schedules, more or less.
Iowa has zero success against top-15 equivalents to date (0-4), and have balanced success in the range of 15 to 35. Iowa is a near consensus low 30's in most power rankings, and that is pretty accurate in where they belong. I doubt that is going to change much the rest of the season for two reasons. 1. There isn't much left to influence the ratings. 2. Iowa are what they are.
As much as some what to point out Iowa's road woes, that really isn't so much the problem. The fact is that Iowa has a strong correlation to straight-up equivalent power rankings that factors in home court advantage...and Iowa simple isn't good enough to beat the teams they have lost to on the road. They HAVE been good enough to beat their peers and less on the road.
Iowa State, on the hand, is a team that acts like a young but talented puppy....
The Cyclones are remarkable 3-1 against top-15 equivalents, and all three of those were road games. That thar is some serious NCAA Committee Nitty Gritty Report kudos.
Anguishingly, the Clones are 5-7 against teams equivalent ranked between 15th and 60h. With home loses to TCU and Baylor standing out as 60th equivalent sore thumbs. (Arizona is a third but that was early. )
Had we taken care of business against TCU and Baylor, and wave off Arizona as a rogue early game, then Iowa Sate would be sitting without a single sub-25 equivalent loss.
To put that in perspective....no other team with a top-75 strength of schedule can claim to have no sub-25 losses.
We are only two stray pooches from being THAT good and consistent of a team this year.
Put another way though....quit doing that and we are potentially a Conference Tourney Champion, and arguably a solid Sweet-16 team.
Texas: Clones are one point road dogs. And Texas has wins against two teams equivalent power ranked better than Iowa State in their house.
Please note that the spreadsheet now has the conference tournament probabilities now.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
