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Sharing Some Research on Football Recruiting Star Ratings (Long)

Buckminster

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Gold Member
Jun 2, 2001
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I know that most people that read this board are well aware of our 5-star culture (instead of 5-star recruits) and our ability to get the most out of our players. After some research, I was still surprised at how many relatively low rated high school recruits have become all-conference selections, all-Americans, and NFL players in the Matt Campbell era.

The numbers I reference are from the Rivals.com site and are their rating system. In their system, a rating of 5.2 to 5.4 is considered a 2-star recruit, 5.5 to 5.7 is a 3-star, 5.8 to 6.0 is a 4-star, and 6.1 a 5-star.

By their definition, basically only 3-star and above recruits are Power Five caliber prospects. In 2021, the top 100 teams (in terms of recruiting class rank) signed 31 5-stars, 340 4-stars, and 1,054 3-stars for a total of 1,425 3-star and above recruits. There are a handful of 4-stars outside of the top 100 teams and probably about 200 to 250 3-star recruits outside of the top 100 teams. This totals about 1,700 3-star and above recruits every year with the top 100 teams getting about 85% of them. These numbers have been fairly consistent over the Campbell era.

The top 8 teams claim the majority of 5-star recruits with the rest basically being claimed by the other top 20 teams. The top 20 teams also claim about 2/3 of the 4-star recruits. Over 90% of the 4-stars were taken by the top 50 teams in 2021.

A rating of 5.5 (a low 3-star) is basically the bottom of barrel for Power Five conference players and a rating of 5.6 (mid-level 3-star) still means that roughly 650 players in your class are above you. I know that a few play other sports in college, some go the JUCO route, and some never qualify....but still.

My point is that with 650 recruits each and every year that are rated 5.7 (high 3-star) or higher, there should not be much room on Power Five All Conference or All American teams for those rated 5.6 and below.

Now let's look at Iowa State's All-Big 12 players (with their Rivals rating) that Matt Campbell recruited and/or coached since their RS-Freshman year. Not a single 4-star in the group and only three high 3-star recruits (5.7). A full 2/3 of the group were rated 5.5 or lower (borderline of not being considered a Power Five caliber player).

1st Team All Big 12
Breece Hall - 5.7 (high 3-star)
Mike Rose - 5.6 (mid 3-star)
Will McDonald - 5.6
Xavier Hutchison - 5.6
Julian Good-Jones - 5.6
Charlie Kohler - 5.5 (low 3-star)
Brock Purdy - 5.5
Greg Eisworth - 5.5
JaQuan Bailey - 5.5
Eyioma Uwazurike - 5.5
Trevor Downing - 5.5
Colin Newell - 5.5
David Montgomery - 5.4 (2-star) - Matt Campbell the only coach to offer (at Toledo and Iowa State)
Jared Rus - not even in the system

2nd Team All Big 12
Chase Allen - 5.7
Ray Lima - 5.7
Deshaunte Jones - 5.5
Isheem Young - 5.5
Kene Nwengwu - 5.5 (special teams selection, doing OK returning kickoffs in NFL)
Hakeem Butler - 5.4
Derek Schweiger - Not rated
 
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