We are bumping up against what I believe is the maximum size for a College Conference. The SEC and B1G are already there starting in 2024. That number is 16.
First, I don't think you have a Conference if you don't play everyone on a regular basis. And you cannot do that beyond 16 under current conditions. Whether it is 3-6-6 or pods or whatever, a 16 team conference can play each other twice in a 4 year period in Football and at least once annually in Basketball.
The key current condition is the College LLP Football Playoffs. The pressure is going to be on to eliminate automatic qualifiers. The SEC has 8 teams who believe they have a right to be in the playoffs almost every year (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, OU, Texas, A&M, LSU, and Florida) and the B1G has 4 (tOSU, UM, PSU, USC). Add in Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame and you have at a minimum 15 teams who believe the absolute right to the playoffs is theirs.
That, of course, doesn't include former or occasional powers like Miami, Oregon, Washington, Tennessee, and Nebraska (smh). Or delusional "powers" like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah. Clearly some of those schools are not like the others, but all are legends in their own minds.
The current model doesn't support super Conferenceces. Yet here we are. Right now, it appears money is the prime motivator. But after the money is consolidated, and maybe 40 teams land in the B1G and SEC, the model doesn't work. So there will be a push, demand, for no automatic qualifiers, so all the teams and money goes to those Conferences. And if it doesn't, the current model disappears and a College Football League, with it's own rules of operation, will form. It might be 40. It might be 32. If it is 32, it won't be the current 32 in the Big Ten and SEC. Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern will all be scrambling to ward off the likes of Miami, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Notre Dame. The networks are going to want a more national Coverage, bigger markets.
It might come down to the absolute powers plus those closest to markets, a mini NFL. Minus the NE since CFB doesn't play well there.
I could see the following CFB League:
For sures: USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Clemson, Louisiana State, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin,
The next 12, strictly in my opinion based on success and brand:
Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Utah, North Carolina, Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Stanford
As you can see, it is hard beyond the first 20-24. But some version of this is how I see this going. The current model can't survive, imo.
First, I don't think you have a Conference if you don't play everyone on a regular basis. And you cannot do that beyond 16 under current conditions. Whether it is 3-6-6 or pods or whatever, a 16 team conference can play each other twice in a 4 year period in Football and at least once annually in Basketball.
The key current condition is the College LLP Football Playoffs. The pressure is going to be on to eliminate automatic qualifiers. The SEC has 8 teams who believe they have a right to be in the playoffs almost every year (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, OU, Texas, A&M, LSU, and Florida) and the B1G has 4 (tOSU, UM, PSU, USC). Add in Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame and you have at a minimum 15 teams who believe the absolute right to the playoffs is theirs.
That, of course, doesn't include former or occasional powers like Miami, Oregon, Washington, Tennessee, and Nebraska (smh). Or delusional "powers" like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah. Clearly some of those schools are not like the others, but all are legends in their own minds.
The current model doesn't support super Conferenceces. Yet here we are. Right now, it appears money is the prime motivator. But after the money is consolidated, and maybe 40 teams land in the B1G and SEC, the model doesn't work. So there will be a push, demand, for no automatic qualifiers, so all the teams and money goes to those Conferences. And if it doesn't, the current model disappears and a College Football League, with it's own rules of operation, will form. It might be 40. It might be 32. If it is 32, it won't be the current 32 in the Big Ten and SEC. Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern will all be scrambling to ward off the likes of Miami, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Notre Dame. The networks are going to want a more national Coverage, bigger markets.
It might come down to the absolute powers plus those closest to markets, a mini NFL. Minus the NE since CFB doesn't play well there.
I could see the following CFB League:
For sures: USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Clemson, Louisiana State, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin,
The next 12, strictly in my opinion based on success and brand:
Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Utah, North Carolina, Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Stanford
As you can see, it is hard beyond the first 20-24. But some version of this is how I see this going. The current model can't survive, imo.
