The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
There is one thing I want to point out that can be shot full of holes, but I want to point it out anyway. If I should analyze Iowa State on a half-game basis, it would suggest something very unique. With the sole exception of Texas Tech, Iowa State has played a top-10 caliber half (usually more) nearly every single game. Think about that about that from the standpoint of Iowa, Toledo, TCU, Baylor, and Texas.
And to build on that, it is not a case of happening regularly in either the first or second half. That is, it appears not to be a matter of fatigue, or the other team making adjustments.
Of course, half games are not played in sports, so all kinds of holes can be shot through this observation, and it's overall a moot point with regard to the game's final result.
That having been said, as I have said before....teams with little or no competitive value cannot intermittently play good. However, good teams with something amiss can indeed play intermittently bad. The question becomes, what is amiss? I'll leave you to ponder than on your own.
Moving on......
There are two incredibly glaring things that stand out in the analysis...the horrid Texas Tech performance ,and the outstanding Texas performance. Of the two, Texas Tech is very much the outlier in multiple ways.
If you leave out Texas Tech, Iowa State has only two games that were considered below their rating, and both of those were fairly minimal. That is compared to five of Iowa State's games being above their rating..... and four of those are by nearly ten points or more. And that was against some really good teams!
If you break that down further, you can look at the Iowa game where the Hawks scored fourteen points in the last four minutes of the game. Not that Iowa did not deserve the game, but it is also not unfair to evaluate Iowa State on the performance up until that very late point. (I'm not saying it was a good performance, but even with a putrid second half, we were toe-to-toe with a top-10 team at that late point.)
In short, what I am saying is that from an analytical standpoint, there is a lot of evidence that this team actually has something. And if the schedule was anything other that what it is, this very well could have been that special year.
(Yes, I'm saying that Iowa State got "Manifestoed" this year.)
One other trend that I want to point out is that since bottoming out against Texas Tech, Iowa State has seen a rather impressive, solid, four game upward trend, going through a -28, -7, +5, +22 point performance consecutively. This is obviously not a trend that will continue any higher, and for all I know Oklahoma may turn out to be the trend "levelizer". But, it looks good for the moment.
But...keep in mind that it was during this exact same time that Iowa State became decimated win injuries and last year, and skidded downward abysmally the rest of the season.
From my chair, Iowa State is playing minimally 5 points above their rating, and that is with all it's warts (except Texas Tech). That puts Iowa State in the performance range of the 30th to 35th range. And that coincides exactly with how the have performed against the schedule win/loss-wise.
Just to antagonize you, that would put Iowa State at eight to ten wins against Iowa's schedule. Or 11-1 (with room to spare) against our own 2009 schedule
If I wanted to scrape off Iowa State's warts, I could suggest that Iowa State actually has seven to ten point above their ratingpotential in them. And that would put Iowa State right around the 25th ranking area. And when you look at how we played against TCU, Baylor, Iowa, and even Toledo....is that not an arguable point? That is, if Iowa State has played Texas caliber teams all season instead of top-25 teams....would we not be in the top-25 ourselves?
Alright critics...this is were I hand the debate back to you to blast away.
Regardless, the season's not over, and there is a lot of time for me to choke on my words.
Oklahoma......
Quite honestly, I am a little confused about Oklahoma's ranking. But as we talked in our discussion about the Play-off Rankings, there is a lot of this going around.....Oklahoma hasn't really played anybody to validate their ranking.
Oklahoma has played only one top-40 power ranked team. That was 21st ranked Tennessee and it took double overtime to win it.
Which by the way....Tennessee lost to Arkansas.....who lost to Toledo....who Iowa State lost to on the road in........(wait for it)......double overtime!
And of course, Oklahoma lost to Texas 17-24....the same Texas that Iowa State beat 24-0 last
Outside Tennessee and Texas markers (the two highest ranked teams OU has played, and that have dots connected to Iowa State) , Okahoma has been dancing up and down in performances against sub-40 or lower teams. They hammered Kansas State 55-0, and Texas Tech 63-27. But at the same time drudged by 98th Tulsa 52-38.
In short, Oklahoma is far from "validated" at their lofty ranking, and they have multiple warts of their own. Oklahoma may indeed be the real deal....but there is evidence they could be a paper tiger. Indeed, there is more evidence leaning that way, but it could be false evidence.
Summary....
Let's face it though, it's Oklahoma. And that rarely bodes well for Iowa State under any conditions. And when we play Oklahoma, just about any caliber of loss can happen. After all.....look what they did to Kansas State and Texas Tech. So I'm by no means predicting a close game, much less a win. Especially on the road.
That having been said, I see a lot of analytical based hope that there is a realistic probability that Oklahoma may not be as good as they seem to most....and that likewise Iowa State is better than the seem to most. Of course, it takes both of them to play that way at the same time for something good to happen.
But a girl can dream, right?
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
There is one thing I want to point out that can be shot full of holes, but I want to point it out anyway. If I should analyze Iowa State on a half-game basis, it would suggest something very unique. With the sole exception of Texas Tech, Iowa State has played a top-10 caliber half (usually more) nearly every single game. Think about that about that from the standpoint of Iowa, Toledo, TCU, Baylor, and Texas.
And to build on that, it is not a case of happening regularly in either the first or second half. That is, it appears not to be a matter of fatigue, or the other team making adjustments.
Of course, half games are not played in sports, so all kinds of holes can be shot through this observation, and it's overall a moot point with regard to the game's final result.
That having been said, as I have said before....teams with little or no competitive value cannot intermittently play good. However, good teams with something amiss can indeed play intermittently bad. The question becomes, what is amiss? I'll leave you to ponder than on your own.
Moving on......
There are two incredibly glaring things that stand out in the analysis...the horrid Texas Tech performance ,and the outstanding Texas performance. Of the two, Texas Tech is very much the outlier in multiple ways.
If you leave out Texas Tech, Iowa State has only two games that were considered below their rating, and both of those were fairly minimal. That is compared to five of Iowa State's games being above their rating..... and four of those are by nearly ten points or more. And that was against some really good teams!
If you break that down further, you can look at the Iowa game where the Hawks scored fourteen points in the last four minutes of the game. Not that Iowa did not deserve the game, but it is also not unfair to evaluate Iowa State on the performance up until that very late point. (I'm not saying it was a good performance, but even with a putrid second half, we were toe-to-toe with a top-10 team at that late point.)
In short, what I am saying is that from an analytical standpoint, there is a lot of evidence that this team actually has something. And if the schedule was anything other that what it is, this very well could have been that special year.
(Yes, I'm saying that Iowa State got "Manifestoed" this year.)
One other trend that I want to point out is that since bottoming out against Texas Tech, Iowa State has seen a rather impressive, solid, four game upward trend, going through a -28, -7, +5, +22 point performance consecutively. This is obviously not a trend that will continue any higher, and for all I know Oklahoma may turn out to be the trend "levelizer". But, it looks good for the moment.
But...keep in mind that it was during this exact same time that Iowa State became decimated win injuries and last year, and skidded downward abysmally the rest of the season.
From my chair, Iowa State is playing minimally 5 points above their rating, and that is with all it's warts (except Texas Tech). That puts Iowa State in the performance range of the 30th to 35th range. And that coincides exactly with how the have performed against the schedule win/loss-wise.
Just to antagonize you, that would put Iowa State at eight to ten wins against Iowa's schedule. Or 11-1 (with room to spare) against our own 2009 schedule
If I wanted to scrape off Iowa State's warts, I could suggest that Iowa State actually has seven to ten point above their ratingpotential in them. And that would put Iowa State right around the 25th ranking area. And when you look at how we played against TCU, Baylor, Iowa, and even Toledo....is that not an arguable point? That is, if Iowa State has played Texas caliber teams all season instead of top-25 teams....would we not be in the top-25 ourselves?
Alright critics...this is were I hand the debate back to you to blast away.
Regardless, the season's not over, and there is a lot of time for me to choke on my words.
Oklahoma......
Quite honestly, I am a little confused about Oklahoma's ranking. But as we talked in our discussion about the Play-off Rankings, there is a lot of this going around.....Oklahoma hasn't really played anybody to validate their ranking.
Oklahoma has played only one top-40 power ranked team. That was 21st ranked Tennessee and it took double overtime to win it.
Which by the way....Tennessee lost to Arkansas.....who lost to Toledo....who Iowa State lost to on the road in........(wait for it)......double overtime!
And of course, Oklahoma lost to Texas 17-24....the same Texas that Iowa State beat 24-0 last
Outside Tennessee and Texas markers (the two highest ranked teams OU has played, and that have dots connected to Iowa State) , Okahoma has been dancing up and down in performances against sub-40 or lower teams. They hammered Kansas State 55-0, and Texas Tech 63-27. But at the same time drudged by 98th Tulsa 52-38.
In short, Oklahoma is far from "validated" at their lofty ranking, and they have multiple warts of their own. Oklahoma may indeed be the real deal....but there is evidence they could be a paper tiger. Indeed, there is more evidence leaning that way, but it could be false evidence.
Summary....
Let's face it though, it's Oklahoma. And that rarely bodes well for Iowa State under any conditions. And when we play Oklahoma, just about any caliber of loss can happen. After all.....look what they did to Kansas State and Texas Tech. So I'm by no means predicting a close game, much less a win. Especially on the road.
That having been said, I see a lot of analytical based hope that there is a realistic probability that Oklahoma may not be as good as they seem to most....and that likewise Iowa State is better than the seem to most. Of course, it takes both of them to play that way at the same time for something good to happen.
But a girl can dream, right?
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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