When you actually go through the first round sites the way the committee will, it becomes very clear that our first round destination is realistically very likely one of a couple possibilities . A bit of conjecture here, but it's well thought through... (current seeds in Lunardi bracketology in () )
Easy stuff first. Des Moines = 0%.
Now, since we know 1s pair with 8s and 9s and 2s with 7s and 10s in the first round, any site that will be occupied by 1 and 2 seeds is highly unlikely to be our destination. UNC (1), UVA (1) and Miami (2) are all closest to Raleigh. That site will certainly fill with 1s and 2s. Raleigh = <1%. Brooklyn is top choice for Villanova, 2nd for the above three teams (behind Raleigh). Brooklyn's also 2nd choice for WVU (3) behind Raleigh. So that site will also almost certainly fill with 1s and 2s. Maybe Miami slips to a 3 and we end up a 6...but pretty doubtful. Brooklyn = 1%. St. Louis is top choice for Xavier (2) and Michigan State (2) and Indiana (3) as well as Kentucky (4). If 2 of those 4 are 2 seeds are above, St. Louis is off the table. Maybe they all slip to 3s and we end up a 6 and pair with them, but that's unlikely. One thing that maaaybe lets STL in the door is that KU, OU and WV ain't gonna go there. But still...too many 2 seeds. St. Louis = 3%.
That leaves Spokane, Providence, OKC and Denver. I feel there's about a 95% chance we're in one of those 4.
Let's work through them in the order in which Iowa State prefers them, at least geographically...
Let's start with OKC. Oklahoma (2) is there - done. Who else? Utah (3) has OKC as a second choice, but their first is Denver, and no one ahead of them has Denver 1st, so they're probably there. Kentucky (4) has OKC as a 4th choice, but their top three are filled (STL/Raleigh/DSM) so Lunardi has them in OKC right now. Beyond those three, no one seeded above us has OKC in their top 4 geographical preferences. So I think, should ISU stay on the 4-line, OKC seems possible. However, keep this in mind. For EVERY SINGLE TEAM east of us, OKC is closer than Denver. So to get OKC, we have to finish above TAMU (5), Iowa (5), Kentucky (4). (Not Arizona, though -- they're 45 miles closer to Denver). Duke (4) and Maryland (4) also prefer OKC to Denver, but they prefer Providence above either. So if they're 3s or high 4s, maybe they take Providence and leave OKC to us. But, if we go on a Big XII tourney run and finish at or near the top of that list, it could happen. OKC = 18%.
Denver -- Utah (3) is the only current team seeded 5+ that has Denver top choice. Oregon (3) has them 2nd, as does Arizona (5). Beyond that, Denver is actually just about the same story as OKC, except. EVERY TEAM east of us favors OKC to Denver BUT also prefers Denver to Spokane. So, again, here's the list -- Utah (3), Duke (4), Maryland (4), TAMU (5), Iowa (5), Kentucky (4), Purdue (5), Arizona (5) If we finish high on that list, one of them takes OKC, a couple take Providence, Denver falls to us. There isn't any LOCK team in Denver akin to OU in OKC. But we've got to finish high on that list of 8 contenders to get Denver. So odds are -- probably not. I'm giving Denver the same chance as OKC, because OKC is less likely to fall to us, but if it does, we prefer it above Denver. Denver = 15%.
Providence -- Providence is slightly different because the east coast schools all prefer it to OKC and Denver, even though it is literally no relevant school's top geographical preference. Villanova, UNC, UVA and Miami all have it top 3, but they're going elsewhere. West Virginia (3) has it 3rd, and with Raleigh and Brooklyn full, it's a very likely destination for them. If you assume WV stays seeded ahead of us, that's one Providence spot gone. Who gets the other? Well, Duke (4), Maryland (4), Kentucky (4) -- basically all contending teams are all closer to it than Spokane. But if one of them passes us, Providence is off the table. Arizona prefers Spokane, so there's that. But really, we've got to beat ALL of Duke, Maryland, Kentucky in seeding order to get to Providence = 15%.
Now, I sort of overlooked one thing in this analysis, and that's this -- as teams get picked off to go to one location or another, the list of teams we have to "pass" to go to our preferred destination gets shorter. What I mean is -- if Kentucky stays ahead of us, gets their preferred OKC, then we don't have to finish ahead of them anymore to Denver. The Denver list just got shorter. So maybe I've underestimated a little bit the chances of going to some of those places, since there are scenarios where maybe we finish as a high 4-seed and don't get caught holding the Spokane bag.
It's also possible that we end up as a 5 or 6, and sort of backdoor our way into OKC or Denver or Providence by accident. I mean, there's a lot of season left.
But that still leaves about 45% we'll be in Spokane.
If you want the Clones to avoid Spokane, the recipe is not only a good showing in KC, but also some early conference tournament exits from our cohort group -- which seems to be Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, Iowa, TAMU, Purdue, Arizona. If we are even in the middle of that list when the committee does their thing, you can book your tickets to the Pacific Northwest right now.
tl;dr --
Projected Probabilities:
Spokane -- 45%
Providence -- 15%
OKC -- 18%
Denver -- 15%
STL -- 3%
Brooklyn -- 1%
Raleigh -- 1%
Des Moines -- 0%
Easy stuff first. Des Moines = 0%.
Now, since we know 1s pair with 8s and 9s and 2s with 7s and 10s in the first round, any site that will be occupied by 1 and 2 seeds is highly unlikely to be our destination. UNC (1), UVA (1) and Miami (2) are all closest to Raleigh. That site will certainly fill with 1s and 2s. Raleigh = <1%. Brooklyn is top choice for Villanova, 2nd for the above three teams (behind Raleigh). Brooklyn's also 2nd choice for WVU (3) behind Raleigh. So that site will also almost certainly fill with 1s and 2s. Maybe Miami slips to a 3 and we end up a 6...but pretty doubtful. Brooklyn = 1%. St. Louis is top choice for Xavier (2) and Michigan State (2) and Indiana (3) as well as Kentucky (4). If 2 of those 4 are 2 seeds are above, St. Louis is off the table. Maybe they all slip to 3s and we end up a 6 and pair with them, but that's unlikely. One thing that maaaybe lets STL in the door is that KU, OU and WV ain't gonna go there. But still...too many 2 seeds. St. Louis = 3%.
That leaves Spokane, Providence, OKC and Denver. I feel there's about a 95% chance we're in one of those 4.
Let's work through them in the order in which Iowa State prefers them, at least geographically...
Let's start with OKC. Oklahoma (2) is there - done. Who else? Utah (3) has OKC as a second choice, but their first is Denver, and no one ahead of them has Denver 1st, so they're probably there. Kentucky (4) has OKC as a 4th choice, but their top three are filled (STL/Raleigh/DSM) so Lunardi has them in OKC right now. Beyond those three, no one seeded above us has OKC in their top 4 geographical preferences. So I think, should ISU stay on the 4-line, OKC seems possible. However, keep this in mind. For EVERY SINGLE TEAM east of us, OKC is closer than Denver. So to get OKC, we have to finish above TAMU (5), Iowa (5), Kentucky (4). (Not Arizona, though -- they're 45 miles closer to Denver). Duke (4) and Maryland (4) also prefer OKC to Denver, but they prefer Providence above either. So if they're 3s or high 4s, maybe they take Providence and leave OKC to us. But, if we go on a Big XII tourney run and finish at or near the top of that list, it could happen. OKC = 18%.
Denver -- Utah (3) is the only current team seeded 5+ that has Denver top choice. Oregon (3) has them 2nd, as does Arizona (5). Beyond that, Denver is actually just about the same story as OKC, except. EVERY TEAM east of us favors OKC to Denver BUT also prefers Denver to Spokane. So, again, here's the list -- Utah (3), Duke (4), Maryland (4), TAMU (5), Iowa (5), Kentucky (4), Purdue (5), Arizona (5) If we finish high on that list, one of them takes OKC, a couple take Providence, Denver falls to us. There isn't any LOCK team in Denver akin to OU in OKC. But we've got to finish high on that list of 8 contenders to get Denver. So odds are -- probably not. I'm giving Denver the same chance as OKC, because OKC is less likely to fall to us, but if it does, we prefer it above Denver. Denver = 15%.
Providence -- Providence is slightly different because the east coast schools all prefer it to OKC and Denver, even though it is literally no relevant school's top geographical preference. Villanova, UNC, UVA and Miami all have it top 3, but they're going elsewhere. West Virginia (3) has it 3rd, and with Raleigh and Brooklyn full, it's a very likely destination for them. If you assume WV stays seeded ahead of us, that's one Providence spot gone. Who gets the other? Well, Duke (4), Maryland (4), Kentucky (4) -- basically all contending teams are all closer to it than Spokane. But if one of them passes us, Providence is off the table. Arizona prefers Spokane, so there's that. But really, we've got to beat ALL of Duke, Maryland, Kentucky in seeding order to get to Providence = 15%.
Now, I sort of overlooked one thing in this analysis, and that's this -- as teams get picked off to go to one location or another, the list of teams we have to "pass" to go to our preferred destination gets shorter. What I mean is -- if Kentucky stays ahead of us, gets their preferred OKC, then we don't have to finish ahead of them anymore to Denver. The Denver list just got shorter. So maybe I've underestimated a little bit the chances of going to some of those places, since there are scenarios where maybe we finish as a high 4-seed and don't get caught holding the Spokane bag.
It's also possible that we end up as a 5 or 6, and sort of backdoor our way into OKC or Denver or Providence by accident. I mean, there's a lot of season left.
But that still leaves about 45% we'll be in Spokane.
If you want the Clones to avoid Spokane, the recipe is not only a good showing in KC, but also some early conference tournament exits from our cohort group -- which seems to be Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, Iowa, TAMU, Purdue, Arizona. If we are even in the middle of that list when the committee does their thing, you can book your tickets to the Pacific Northwest right now.
tl;dr --
Projected Probabilities:
Spokane -- 45%
Providence -- 15%
OKC -- 18%
Denver -- 15%
STL -- 3%
Brooklyn -- 1%
Raleigh -- 1%
Des Moines -- 0%
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