Polls can be inconsistent, biased, have poor methodology and sampling techniques...and are a simple datapoint rather than a broad analysis of a campaigns viability. SOME of these shortcomings are mitigate by using polling averages but they still persist to an extent. Betting markets on the other hand, are built to minimize bias in favor of making money...a powerful incentive to be as objective, and comprehensive, as is feasible. Because of this, its reasonable to put MORE stock in betting markets than in polls as a stand alone measure.
Today's betting market data:
Trump 51.2% chance of winning
Biden 36.5% chance of winning
RFK 3% chance of winning
Those numbers, by any measure, are both decisive and remarkable.
Today's betting market data:
Trump 51.2% chance of winning
Biden 36.5% chance of winning
RFK 3% chance of winning
Those numbers, by any measure, are both decisive and remarkable.
