I just wanted to point out something....
Last night on KCRG news, they did a story on the rise of Covid, and used a graph showing the projected curve that can be found via the link below.
It shows a graph that is data to date, and this data has been accurate and useful. I have used it a lot.
However.....
It also shows a projected rapid increase of cases going foward, including based on certain "conditions" such as wearing PPE and distancing regulations.
I have been following these graphs for months....and from the very beginning they have always been projecting signficant increases almost immediatley after the present. Yet they have never happened.
Suddenly, it shows up on KCRG in the midst of rising Covid cases. The story being how bad the projections are based solely on this graph.
This projection is hypothetical and has obviously proven to be very flawed.
It has grossly mis-represented any kind of accurate projection to date. If it happens to be "correct" going foward, it is likely due to finally getting lucky, not due to any sort of accurate forecasting.
I doubt that KCRG had any idea, but it is a great example of the media passing on bad "expert scientific" information to the public.
What I don't like about it is that for months there could have been a story about how inaccurate these projections have been....only instead to pull it out to support a present day hypothisis as Covid starts to rise.
How can you trust this graph now, when it has been 100% inaccurate up to now?
It begs the queston....who are"scientifc experts" behind this flawed projection that the media has picked up on?
(In my opinion.)
covid19.healthdata.org
Last night on KCRG news, they did a story on the rise of Covid, and used a graph showing the projected curve that can be found via the link below.
It shows a graph that is data to date, and this data has been accurate and useful. I have used it a lot.
However.....
It also shows a projected rapid increase of cases going foward, including based on certain "conditions" such as wearing PPE and distancing regulations.
I have been following these graphs for months....and from the very beginning they have always been projecting signficant increases almost immediatley after the present. Yet they have never happened.
Suddenly, it shows up on KCRG in the midst of rising Covid cases. The story being how bad the projections are based solely on this graph.
This projection is hypothetical and has obviously proven to be very flawed.
It has grossly mis-represented any kind of accurate projection to date. If it happens to be "correct" going foward, it is likely due to finally getting lucky, not due to any sort of accurate forecasting.
I doubt that KCRG had any idea, but it is a great example of the media passing on bad "expert scientific" information to the public.
What I don't like about it is that for months there could have been a story about how inaccurate these projections have been....only instead to pull it out to support a present day hypothisis as Covid starts to rise.
How can you trust this graph now, when it has been 100% inaccurate up to now?
It begs the queston....who are"scientifc experts" behind this flawed projection that the media has picked up on?
(In my opinion.)
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
