First....I am a retired engineer with lots of time to do important stuff......like figure out how many JUCO FB players we can recruit every year. As I have stated before....I 100% support the move to more JUCO players. But as we all know, if we recruited 100% JUCO's, they all showed up and stayed two years, we would only have 50 scholarship players and 50% roster turnover annually.....not acceptable.
So.....I did some calculating with the following assumptions (which are no doubt wrong, just based on my opinion): Recruit 10 JUCO players per year, 9 show up, and 2 of the 9 have 3 years eligibility, and the other 7 have 2 years. Recruit 15 HS kids per year, 14 show up, 2 play as true freshman and 12 get red shirted. Overall attrition is 2 scholarship players per year, due to injury, unhappiness, flunk out or dismissal etc. (The attrition number is probably low.) As the attrition number gets higher, the total number of scholarship players gets lower.
If you repeat this pattern every year, you end up with 74 scholarship players, against an allowable 85.
Some of this difference would be made up with scholarships to walk-ons, but I think you still cannot violate 25 in a given class. The 74 would become 80, if you took 2 less JUCO's and 2 more freshman who redshirted.
I know managing to the 85 number may not be the only important factor, but I think you need to stay close to it.
So .....I think we need to be around 7-8 JUCO's per year on a consistent basis, as I expect the attrition to be a bit higher than my initial assumption. As a point of reference, I think we took 6 last year, unless I am forgetting somebody - with Harris sliding into that group as a redshirt.
It goes without saying.............they must show up (preferably in December) and stay eligible.
FWIW
So.....I did some calculating with the following assumptions (which are no doubt wrong, just based on my opinion): Recruit 10 JUCO players per year, 9 show up, and 2 of the 9 have 3 years eligibility, and the other 7 have 2 years. Recruit 15 HS kids per year, 14 show up, 2 play as true freshman and 12 get red shirted. Overall attrition is 2 scholarship players per year, due to injury, unhappiness, flunk out or dismissal etc. (The attrition number is probably low.) As the attrition number gets higher, the total number of scholarship players gets lower.
If you repeat this pattern every year, you end up with 74 scholarship players, against an allowable 85.
Some of this difference would be made up with scholarships to walk-ons, but I think you still cannot violate 25 in a given class. The 74 would become 80, if you took 2 less JUCO's and 2 more freshman who redshirted.
I know managing to the 85 number may not be the only important factor, but I think you need to stay close to it.
So .....I think we need to be around 7-8 JUCO's per year on a consistent basis, as I expect the attrition to be a bit higher than my initial assumption. As a point of reference, I think we took 6 last year, unless I am forgetting somebody - with Harris sliding into that group as a redshirt.
It goes without saying.............they must show up (preferably in December) and stay eligible.
FWIW
