Fun with mred (B12 tournament seeding)

[CloneVA]

Because I'm a numbers and scenarios guy, I spent some time last night with mred's Big 12 seed calculator. Barring user error, here's how the tournament seeding works out:
IF WE WIN SATURDAY:
If OU beats TCU, we're the #5 seed and play Baylor in the tournament
If TCU beats OU, we're the #6 seed:
We play KSU if (WVU beats KSU and Texas beats KU)
We play Baylor if (KSU beats WVU and Texas beats KU)
We play Texas if (WVU beats KSU and KU beats Texas) OR (KSU beats WVU and Texas beats KU)

IF WE LOSE SATURDAY:
If OSU beats TTU, we're the #7 seed and play OU in the tournament
If TTU beats OSU, we're the #6 seed:
We play Texas if KSU beats WVU and Texas beats KU
We play KSU if WVU beats KSU and KU beats Texas
We play Baylor if (WVU beats KSU and Texas beats KU) OR (KSU beats WVU and KU beats Texas)

To estimate the probability of each scenario, I used ESPN's matchup predictor. Here are the probabilities:
9.76% #5 seed vs Baylor
31.50% #6 seed vs Baylor
17.20% #6 seed vs KSU
11.86% #6 seed vs Texas
29.68% #7 seed vs OU

Adjust your rooting preferences accordingly.

 

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