With the caveat I'm not 100% sure of how the multiple team tiebreakers work, I worked out the current tiebreaker (as I figured it) between Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia, all currently tied for forth.
We are 2-1 against that group. Baylor is 2-1. West Virginia is 1-3. So if that eliminates West Virginia, Iowa State would win the head-to-head against Baylor based on our win over them in our only meeting. That would put us as the fourth seed if Kansas State maintains their grip on third with a win. That assumes all three of the teams tied for fourth win their final game, all home games against lower seeded teams.
If Baylor faulters and we end up in a tiebreaker with West Virginia, I believe we lose that head-to-head matchup based on their win over Oklahoma.
If Kansas State loses their final game at Texas Tech and drops into a tie with the three six loss teams, it seems our sweep of them would only help us. I believe in that scenario we would finish as the three seed. That would be huge because it pushes us in the opposite bracket as Oklahoma. Although they may not be that much harder than Texas on the other side of the bracket.
