Another thread got me thinking, and I decided to do the math. Using ESPN's win probability analytics for our remaining games (and barring any math errors), the probabilities for our final record outcomes are:
8-4 - 2.6%
7-5 - 16.0%
6-6 - 34.5%
5-7 - 31.8%
4-8 - 13.0%
3-9 - 2.0%
So just over a 50/50 chance that we still make a bowl game (assuming no 5-7 teams make a bowl). Of course, the calculations are only as good as the underlying data, and ESPN ain't no Cygarin. But I found it interesting.
8-4 - 2.6%
7-5 - 16.0%
6-6 - 34.5%
5-7 - 31.8%
4-8 - 13.0%
3-9 - 2.0%
So just over a 50/50 chance that we still make a bowl game (assuming no 5-7 teams make a bowl). Of course, the calculations are only as good as the underlying data, and ESPN ain't no Cygarin. But I found it interesting.
