The Cygarin Ratings has been updated using last year's Sagarin final season rankings.
Quite frankly I haven't done a lot of preseason analysis for this coming season, at least not yet. It has been a very difficult and stressful year for the Cygarin family this year, and I just haven't quite been able to get into the swing of the season just yet. (Just to be sure, all is well with health and security of the Cygarins.)
Anyhoo, there a few things that are worth pointing out in these preseason peeks.....
1. Take a good hard look at the Iowa State strength of schedule page, and note the huge demarcation between the top five and bottom seven games. Those are the seven games we focus almost exclusively on getting our wins.
2. Make note that just about no matter what happens, all of those seven games are going to be swing games. That is, they will all be reasonably toss-up games, or at least no sure wins. And that is a big problem.
3. I firmly do believe that we are going to be considerably better than that rating shows. Indeed, I firmly believe that we were better than our rating last year. Ratings are based on performance of all games, and Iowa State's rating is skewed due to performances against very highly rated teams. That is, our performance against peers in the middle of the P5 pack were better.
4. Toledo on the road scares the crap out of me, and the SOS page explains why, they are potentially in the top half of our schedule due to it being a road game.
5. Iowa State's schedule averages almost ten points PER GAME harder than Iowa's schedule. That is incomprehensible.
6. Iowa may have their hands full with Illinois State. Keep in mind that last year Iowa beat only one team better than Illinois State per the power rankings (Pitt).
Iowa State's schedule is nearly a consensus top-10, and the pre-conference schedule appears to be a contender for No. 1 in the country. If that holds true then the Cygarin Rating Manifesto is in full effect.....a team must be a top-30 team to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule.
The key to that is "if that holds true". The Manifesto is pretty much statistical fact, but what is not fact whether it will apply to Iowa State or not. Two things need to happen this year for Iowa State to make a bowl....
The schedule must soften profoundly. Very absurdly profoundly. And this must happen regardless of how good Iowa State becomes. (Assuming Iowa State cannot make the top-30, that is.)
And of course, Iowa State must improve notably.
Some time ago, Psyclone pointed out that it is the bottom six games that are critical to Iowa State's success ,and he is mostly (but not entirely) correct.....
Without a question the bottom six games are where we have our best chance of winning. The problem with Iowa State's schedule is there are no "virtual win" games in that bottom half. Thus it is going to be a statistical challenge to do better than split them and get three wins...much less the six we are looking for.
Indeed, even if Iowa State should be a 30's power rated team, Iowa State would have only one non-tossup game, and that would be conference foe Kansas.
That is where the problem lies with the top half of the schedule. With the exception of Toledo the other five games are top-30 equivalents, and three are solid top-25 equivalents. There is almost no opportunity to steal a win in these top five games, because they are pretty much all "virtual loss" games.
In summary.....
I firmly believe that Iowa State is going to be a very competitive team on the national P5 level. Indeed, think we are going to be an above average P5 team.
But Iowa State's schedule needs to soften up tremendously for Iowa State to get six wins. It's not just the strength of the opponent each Saturday that matters, but just as important the accumulative effect of having to go balls out with no margin of error Saturday after Saturday.
I indeed do see areas where that can happen, especially with UNI and Iowa early on. And I think UNI and Iowa being down is going to be critical heading to Toledo to play arguably our toughest non-conference game, and a game that is in our top-half strength of schedule.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Quite frankly I haven't done a lot of preseason analysis for this coming season, at least not yet. It has been a very difficult and stressful year for the Cygarin family this year, and I just haven't quite been able to get into the swing of the season just yet. (Just to be sure, all is well with health and security of the Cygarins.)
Anyhoo, there a few things that are worth pointing out in these preseason peeks.....
1. Take a good hard look at the Iowa State strength of schedule page, and note the huge demarcation between the top five and bottom seven games. Those are the seven games we focus almost exclusively on getting our wins.
2. Make note that just about no matter what happens, all of those seven games are going to be swing games. That is, they will all be reasonably toss-up games, or at least no sure wins. And that is a big problem.
3. I firmly do believe that we are going to be considerably better than that rating shows. Indeed, I firmly believe that we were better than our rating last year. Ratings are based on performance of all games, and Iowa State's rating is skewed due to performances against very highly rated teams. That is, our performance against peers in the middle of the P5 pack were better.
4. Toledo on the road scares the crap out of me, and the SOS page explains why, they are potentially in the top half of our schedule due to it being a road game.
5. Iowa State's schedule averages almost ten points PER GAME harder than Iowa's schedule. That is incomprehensible.
6. Iowa may have their hands full with Illinois State. Keep in mind that last year Iowa beat only one team better than Illinois State per the power rankings (Pitt).
Iowa State's schedule is nearly a consensus top-10, and the pre-conference schedule appears to be a contender for No. 1 in the country. If that holds true then the Cygarin Rating Manifesto is in full effect.....a team must be a top-30 team to have a winning record against a top-25 strength of schedule.
The key to that is "if that holds true". The Manifesto is pretty much statistical fact, but what is not fact whether it will apply to Iowa State or not. Two things need to happen this year for Iowa State to make a bowl....
The schedule must soften profoundly. Very absurdly profoundly. And this must happen regardless of how good Iowa State becomes. (Assuming Iowa State cannot make the top-30, that is.)
And of course, Iowa State must improve notably.
Some time ago, Psyclone pointed out that it is the bottom six games that are critical to Iowa State's success ,and he is mostly (but not entirely) correct.....
Without a question the bottom six games are where we have our best chance of winning. The problem with Iowa State's schedule is there are no "virtual win" games in that bottom half. Thus it is going to be a statistical challenge to do better than split them and get three wins...much less the six we are looking for.
Indeed, even if Iowa State should be a 30's power rated team, Iowa State would have only one non-tossup game, and that would be conference foe Kansas.
That is where the problem lies with the top half of the schedule. With the exception of Toledo the other five games are top-30 equivalents, and three are solid top-25 equivalents. There is almost no opportunity to steal a win in these top five games, because they are pretty much all "virtual loss" games.
In summary.....
I firmly believe that Iowa State is going to be a very competitive team on the national P5 level. Indeed, think we are going to be an above average P5 team.
But Iowa State's schedule needs to soften up tremendously for Iowa State to get six wins. It's not just the strength of the opponent each Saturday that matters, but just as important the accumulative effect of having to go balls out with no margin of error Saturday after Saturday.
I indeed do see areas where that can happen, especially with UNI and Iowa early on. And I think UNI and Iowa being down is going to be critical heading to Toledo to play arguably our toughest non-conference game, and a game that is in our top-half strength of schedule.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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