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Cygarin Ratings Update.....

Cygarin

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Jul 3, 2001
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The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.

This is the point in time where the ratings get interesting, they have enough data to be accurate, and yet not enough data to prove consistency in accuracy against peers. All in all though, the various power ratings are reasonably in consensus with each other.

IOWA STATE

Sagarin has Iowa State power ranked 17th in the country against the 20th ranked strength of schedule. The other rankings have us anywhere from 15th to 24th.

Massey has our offense and defense power ranked 20th and 29th respectively, which only Texas has a better combined rating in those categories in the Big-12.

So that leads to the question of how accurate is Iowa State's rating, especially against it's peers. The numbers not only look favorable, they look great! But what about that inverted bathtub curve we have talked about?

As noted last week, the UNI game can be thrown out entirely. It is such a anomaly that it is literally off the charts. How about the Iowa game though? That could go either way.

Iowa is tied for our second worst game of the year, so one could argue it applies, and that Iowa State's performance didn't take it's annual rise until the following game against ULM. Furthermore, if one assumes that Iowa's ranking is overrated….then this game stands alone as our second worse game and therefore supports the whole bathtub curve concept.

Of course, nobody needs to look at a chart to realize that we played profoundly poorer in our first two games than since then.

On the other hand, Iowa was not THAT bad of a performance, and using current ratings, the Iowa game actually fits better with the games going forward than it does with UNI. Which looked at that way, somewhat supports better earlier performance for this Iowa State team compared to past years.

The other issue to look at is our performance against Baylor, which also has an opportunity to have an asterisk beside it.... considering the heat, and the factor involving one team having shade, and the other not. (I'm talking about the angle of the sun, not just the tents.)

With the Baylor Performance matching the Iowa performance as the second worst game of the year, we can evaluate Iowa State's performance both as part of the norm, as well as being abnormal with a probable (at least possible) cause.

So.....

Including Iowa and Baylor......Iowa State is actually playing about five points better than their rating. That puts the Cyclones performance at about a 10th ranking in the country.

But if you adjust Iowa and Baylor just enough that the Clones won both of those games.....then that nudges Iowa State up just a tad into the 5th to 10the power ranking area.

Either way, or any other way for that matter.....Iowa State's performance looks solid against strong peers and a top-20 strength of schedule.

The bottom line is that Iowa State is WAY under rated in the polls. Compare our performance to undefeated Minnesota for example, who has yet to play a top-50 power rated team, and have marginally beat some of those teams they have played.

Right now the polls are a textbook example showing that strength of schedule seemingly has no influence on poll voters at this point of the season.

So summarizing Iowa State.....,there is little to criticize about the Cyclone's performance from a power rating perspective.

TEXAS TECH

Evaluating Texas Tech is a bit tougher, and they do concern me. There are indications they could be much better than their power ratings suggests.

Currently, Sagarin has the Raiders power ranked 41st, and the others have them in the range of 43rd to 58th. That has come against a strength of schedule even stronger than Iowa State's with it being ranked 16th in the country.

Tech's rating too comes with an asterisk. A strong argument can be made that Tech won their game against Baylor, so instead of being a loss would have been a three point win.

Going with that notion, it shows that Tech is playing well above their rating in their last two games against OSU and Baylor by about ten points. That's a lot.

Thus, if you adjust Tech's ratting for recent performance and/or stronger opponents….then Texas Tech is playing as good as a lower top-20 range team. So then.... extend that with home field advantage...that makes this a toss-up game, or even that Tech is a slight favorite.

I could argue the other way though too. There is a plausible argument that Baylor is overrated due to their "asterisk" games against Iowa State and Tech, and then you could look at the OSU performance as a one game high mark anomaly.

My overall opinion though, is that Texas Tech is indeed a better team than their ratings suggest, and Iowa State better bring their clean "A" game if they expect to win.

GAME SUMMARY

Straight up, the Cygarin Ratings has the Clones as a full touchdown favorite over the Raiders with a 69% chance of winning. If Iowa State brings their full force "A" game, then I think this can (and should) happen.

But I am also concerned that if Texas Tech brings their "A" game and Iowa State does not, then we could easily come out of Lubbock with a Baylor-style loss.

I actually think it better than 50-50 the latter could happen. But on the other hand, if Iowa State continues to bring their best game, I could also see us with a double digit win.

The fact that Iowa State has an relative easy win with a lot of substituting, while Tech had a grueling overtime win, certainly helps Iowa State in the fatigue factor somewhat.


I do have one other concern....

Criticize me if you wish, but I am a huge cynic of the Big-12 refs. My own opinion is that there is more than enough evidence to suggest (but not necessarily prove) that the refs do indeed attempt to influence certain games.

I don't like this week's scenario. You have two Texas teams in competition for runner-up in the Big-12 conference with Iowa State. So if you believe in a bias, then there is solid reason to want Iowa State to lose this game.

Then add that you the issue that you have the third Texas team playing Iowa State.

And lastly, of course, you have the controversy that Tech got screwed by the refs in last week's game against Baylor.

So not only do you have the alleged bias in favor of Texas teams.....you can almost be assured that minimally the refs will make sure that Tech does not have close calls go against them that could cause back-to-back weeks criticism by Tech.

Of course, the way to eliminate that problem is to just perform so dominantly that the refs see no benefit in trying to influence the game.

To summarize it all....

Iowa State definitely is in a position where not only can they win, the can win solidly. But my spidey sense is telling me that Tech is a lot better team than most give it credit for, and that if the refs become a factor.....this could be very troublesome game.

Overall, I see an either/or.....we are either a very slight favorite.....or we will have a West Virginia style solid performance.

Here's hoping for the latter.

(In my opinion.)

Cygarin Ratings link....

http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
 
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