The Cygarin Ratings is updated. Yikes! We are at that point where data is relevant, but not sure just how refinded. And if it is accurate, it looks promising to Iowa State for at least this week.
WEST VIRGINIA
Sagarin currently has the Mountaineers ranked 54th, an unusually low rating for their program. Others are similar, though Massey has them a tad higher at 34th. As a cross-check, Sagarin Recent has them at 51st suggesting that their performance hasn't shifted much in recent games.
Regarding offenses and defenses, Massey has WVU offense ranked a respectable 22nd, and defense at 50th.
One word of caution is that both Sagarin and Massey have WVU's strength of schedule ranked in the top-25, which means that at this early point in time their power ranking could be under valued. One thing we can nod our hats in respect, is that 'Neers have avoided a schedule against the Sisters of the Poor.
A look at their performance shows their three wins have come against teams ranked in the 50's through 80's with a mixed bag of results margin-wise, including unusually tight wins against Kansas and James Madison.
Their two losses were against two solid teams top-20 power ranked teams, 16th Missouri and 14th Texas. The Cats hammered them 38-7. By far the Mountaineers best performance of the year was a 31-42 loss to Texas last week. Not impressive, but they somewhat hung in there.
So summarize, most of the data suggests that WVU's power rankings are reasonably accurate based on performance to date. But there are also hints that the Mountainers could be a sleeper ready to wake up.
Adjusted for home field advantage, WVU's comes in at as a team ranked somewhere in the range of about 30th to 40th.....so long as the don't have a breakout game.
IOWA STATE
Ahh, I like what the power rankings are showing. Let's just hope it holds.....
First let's get this out of the way.....the UNI game now stands out as a major anomaly when stood against all the rest of the games, including even Iowa. The UNI game was a massive 27 point underperformance based on our current rating. That's a four touchdown underperformance folks!
Whatever you think of that game....let it go going forward. It's irrelevant to any forward looking analysis. To compare to the rest of the games....our second worst game was Iowa, which based on current ratings was only a 4 point under performance. So that is a massive 23 point difference between our worst and second worst game of the year so far.
I would be careful though, I am still not convinced that Iowa is anywhere near deserving of their current ranking. And for that matter, I feel that way about Michigan too. (Perhaps more on that later.)
Regardless, our performance against all teams not named UNI has been solid. ULM should be thrown out for quantitative value as well, but the mere slobberknocking factor cannot be ignored. So that leaves Iowa, Baylor,, and TCU for "peer to peer" analysis. Iowa and Baylor were slight under performances, and TCU was a solid 15 point over performance.
The Clones are ranked 21st by Sagarin, and range from 17th to 28th in the other rankings I follow. It is pretty hard to argue against that rating. And most people would suggest that includes the Clones not firing on all cylinders during some of those games. Sagarin also has Iowa State ranked 18th in Recent, suggesting that we are doing better of late, which is encouraging since late was against some pretty good competition.
Offense and defense, Massey has the Clones ranked 22nd and 33rd respectively, not too shabby at all, all things considered overall season-wise.
Also noteworthy, Sagarin has Iowa State's SOS ranked 21st, so like WVU, there's is a chance that our power ranking is slightly under valued.
Summarily, there are limited data points to review yet, but they appear solid and consistent. Most everything that we can look at suggests that all systems are go for this being a solid, competitive team, even with it's warts.
GAME SUMMARY
When I first saw that Iowa State Vegas was twelve point favorite, I thought somebody had been smokin' too much whacky. No way would a 3-2 team not named Oklahoma or Texas be a nearly two touchdown favorite on the road to another Big-12 team not named Kansas.
I still think that is a little much, but it is certainly not beyond plausible after Iowa State's last two games. Our Baylor loss stings, but we do have to appreciate that the Bears were a top-20 power ranked opponent on the road. That's a lofty opponent, heat aside.
The Cygarin Ratings has the good guys as a eight point favorite, with a 72% chance of winning. I can't come up with any reason to argue against that.
If I was forced to pick over or under that margin, I probably would indeed pick one.
(In my opinion.)
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
WEST VIRGINIA
Sagarin currently has the Mountaineers ranked 54th, an unusually low rating for their program. Others are similar, though Massey has them a tad higher at 34th. As a cross-check, Sagarin Recent has them at 51st suggesting that their performance hasn't shifted much in recent games.
Regarding offenses and defenses, Massey has WVU offense ranked a respectable 22nd, and defense at 50th.
One word of caution is that both Sagarin and Massey have WVU's strength of schedule ranked in the top-25, which means that at this early point in time their power ranking could be under valued. One thing we can nod our hats in respect, is that 'Neers have avoided a schedule against the Sisters of the Poor.
A look at their performance shows their three wins have come against teams ranked in the 50's through 80's with a mixed bag of results margin-wise, including unusually tight wins against Kansas and James Madison.
Their two losses were against two solid teams top-20 power ranked teams, 16th Missouri and 14th Texas. The Cats hammered them 38-7. By far the Mountaineers best performance of the year was a 31-42 loss to Texas last week. Not impressive, but they somewhat hung in there.
So summarize, most of the data suggests that WVU's power rankings are reasonably accurate based on performance to date. But there are also hints that the Mountainers could be a sleeper ready to wake up.
Adjusted for home field advantage, WVU's comes in at as a team ranked somewhere in the range of about 30th to 40th.....so long as the don't have a breakout game.
IOWA STATE
Ahh, I like what the power rankings are showing. Let's just hope it holds.....
First let's get this out of the way.....the UNI game now stands out as a major anomaly when stood against all the rest of the games, including even Iowa. The UNI game was a massive 27 point underperformance based on our current rating. That's a four touchdown underperformance folks!
Whatever you think of that game....let it go going forward. It's irrelevant to any forward looking analysis. To compare to the rest of the games....our second worst game was Iowa, which based on current ratings was only a 4 point under performance. So that is a massive 23 point difference between our worst and second worst game of the year so far.
I would be careful though, I am still not convinced that Iowa is anywhere near deserving of their current ranking. And for that matter, I feel that way about Michigan too. (Perhaps more on that later.)
Regardless, our performance against all teams not named UNI has been solid. ULM should be thrown out for quantitative value as well, but the mere slobberknocking factor cannot be ignored. So that leaves Iowa, Baylor,, and TCU for "peer to peer" analysis. Iowa and Baylor were slight under performances, and TCU was a solid 15 point over performance.
The Clones are ranked 21st by Sagarin, and range from 17th to 28th in the other rankings I follow. It is pretty hard to argue against that rating. And most people would suggest that includes the Clones not firing on all cylinders during some of those games. Sagarin also has Iowa State ranked 18th in Recent, suggesting that we are doing better of late, which is encouraging since late was against some pretty good competition.
Offense and defense, Massey has the Clones ranked 22nd and 33rd respectively, not too shabby at all, all things considered overall season-wise.
Also noteworthy, Sagarin has Iowa State's SOS ranked 21st, so like WVU, there's is a chance that our power ranking is slightly under valued.
Summarily, there are limited data points to review yet, but they appear solid and consistent. Most everything that we can look at suggests that all systems are go for this being a solid, competitive team, even with it's warts.
GAME SUMMARY
When I first saw that Iowa State Vegas was twelve point favorite, I thought somebody had been smokin' too much whacky. No way would a 3-2 team not named Oklahoma or Texas be a nearly two touchdown favorite on the road to another Big-12 team not named Kansas.
I still think that is a little much, but it is certainly not beyond plausible after Iowa State's last two games. Our Baylor loss stings, but we do have to appreciate that the Bears were a top-20 power ranked opponent on the road. That's a lofty opponent, heat aside.
The Cygarin Ratings has the good guys as a eight point favorite, with a 72% chance of winning. I can't come up with any reason to argue against that.
If I was forced to pick over or under that margin, I probably would indeed pick one.
(In my opinion.)
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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