The Cygarin Ratings has been updated, and the different ratings are starting to gel somewhat.
TCU:
The Frogs are rated about 25th-ish by most of the power rankings, but their ranking is a little iffy. They have only played one top-70 team so far and that was a loss to 24th power ranked SMU by three points. Somewhat Iowa style, their ranking is mostly supported by larger than predicted wins over lower ranked teams.
Even SMU's ranking is iffy. They are ranked 24th and undefeated at 5-0, but TCU is their only game played against a top-60 team (despite having played two P5 teams), and three of their wins came against sub-100 equivalent opponents. So there is little to suggest that either TCU's or SMU's top 25-ish ranking have been validated, other than their performances against each other. Once again, a bit of a circular reference.
Therefore there really isn't much to go by in evaluating TCU when it comes to playing decently ranked teams.
IOWA STATE:
It might surprise some to learn that Iowa at home and Baylor on the road are close to being power rating equivalent (home and away factored in) opponents right now, both being in the 25th-ish range. And anguishingly both were loses by two points or less. So it's hard to dispute that Iowa State belongs right in that 25th range too, even when playing badly.
Therefore, at best you have two top-25 equivalent teams playing each other, and that leaves Iowa State a home field advantage favorite by a field goal. And yet neither team has yet to score a top-60 win.
That said, I think that Iowa has a bit of an advantage above and beyond home field alone. I think that Iowa State has been more strongly tested at this level, and I stand by my belief that TCU may not have been tested at this level at all.
I also still think that Cyclones are better than their record and performances so far suggest. Iowa beat us by us playing with ten hands tied behind our backs, and I truly sense the unfair heat advantage in Waco had a bearing on Iowa State's early performance. Therefore I still believe that Cyclones are indeed better than perceived, and they are due for that breakout game.
SUMMARY:
With very little to go by to compare these two teams, I still think I would pick Iowa State by about a touchdown, or if they muster a clean game for a change, by more than that. But that is still a big "if".
In chance-speak, I think I give the good guys about 2 to 1 odds of winning the game.
This has got to be one of my shortest Cygarin Ratings ever.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
TCU:
The Frogs are rated about 25th-ish by most of the power rankings, but their ranking is a little iffy. They have only played one top-70 team so far and that was a loss to 24th power ranked SMU by three points. Somewhat Iowa style, their ranking is mostly supported by larger than predicted wins over lower ranked teams.
Even SMU's ranking is iffy. They are ranked 24th and undefeated at 5-0, but TCU is their only game played against a top-60 team (despite having played two P5 teams), and three of their wins came against sub-100 equivalent opponents. So there is little to suggest that either TCU's or SMU's top 25-ish ranking have been validated, other than their performances against each other. Once again, a bit of a circular reference.
Therefore there really isn't much to go by in evaluating TCU when it comes to playing decently ranked teams.
IOWA STATE:
It might surprise some to learn that Iowa at home and Baylor on the road are close to being power rating equivalent (home and away factored in) opponents right now, both being in the 25th-ish range. And anguishingly both were loses by two points or less. So it's hard to dispute that Iowa State belongs right in that 25th range too, even when playing badly.
Therefore, at best you have two top-25 equivalent teams playing each other, and that leaves Iowa State a home field advantage favorite by a field goal. And yet neither team has yet to score a top-60 win.
That said, I think that Iowa has a bit of an advantage above and beyond home field alone. I think that Iowa State has been more strongly tested at this level, and I stand by my belief that TCU may not have been tested at this level at all.
I also still think that Cyclones are better than their record and performances so far suggest. Iowa beat us by us playing with ten hands tied behind our backs, and I truly sense the unfair heat advantage in Waco had a bearing on Iowa State's early performance. Therefore I still believe that Cyclones are indeed better than perceived, and they are due for that breakout game.
SUMMARY:
With very little to go by to compare these two teams, I still think I would pick Iowa State by about a touchdown, or if they muster a clean game for a change, by more than that. But that is still a big "if".
In chance-speak, I think I give the good guys about 2 to 1 odds of winning the game.
This has got to be one of my shortest Cygarin Ratings ever.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
