The Cygarin Ratings have been updated. The analysis continues to be challenging.
BAYLOR
If anyone wants to see a pre-conference schedule that is about as easy as it can come, just take a look at Baylor's. The Bears have played 217th S.F. Austin, 168 U.T. San Antonio, and 139th Rice.
To compare, the lowest ranked team that Iowa State has played is ULM ranked 125th. So as you can see, Baylor has played the little step-cousins of the Sisters of the Poor.
Baylor beat Austin and Antonio handily 56-17 and 63-14 respectively, similar to what Iowa State did against ULM. But, the Bears barely squeaked out a win against 139th ranked Rice just last week. So what does that mean?
I think we have to be a tad cautious of Rice's ranking. The have played the 13th ranked strength of schedule in the country, and in some of that they have not played that bad, with the Owl's best performance being a 52nd ranked Army, losing 7-14. Combine that with Rice's 13-21 Loss to Baylor, and it not hard to recognize that Rice is capable of playing much better than their 139th ranking.
Therefore, with two lopsided wins against very low teams, and a performance that can be compared to Iowa State's play against UNI, I don't think that Baylor's performance against Rice is indicative nor representative at all.
Indeed, it is not hard to fathom that Baylor was looking forward and preparing for Iowa State, rather than Rice. Which is concerning. What is even more concerning is that Baylor had a bye the week before Rice, leaving two weeks to look ahead to Iowa State. Though with the easy schedule they played, one could argue they have had the whole season to anticipate their first true test.
From my perspective, Baylor's easy schedule leaves just about any statistic of any sort impractical of assessing what Baylor can do. The Bears just simply have not been tested yet. On the other hand, they have had an extensive amount of time to be able to focus on and refine their game.
Sagarin has Baylor ranked 42nd, Massey 55th, and Congrove has them ranked highest at 26. So the power rankings are just as confused over what Baylor's strength is as anybody else is.
IOWA STATE
I have been talking all this year about Iowa State's perennial inverted bathtub curve under Campbell. That is, starting out way slow, and then suddenly vaulting to top performance levels. There is no question that Iowa State has started out slow again this year, but was the ULM that annual break-out game? I certainly hope so.
Iowa State has only three games under their belts, but it doesn't take a graph to show that there has been a drastic upward trend in performance over those three games.
The Clone's performance (score-wise) against the Hawk's sits as representative of their ranking. What we don't know though, is if Iowa's ranking is representative. If it is, it suggests that Iowa State nearly beat a top-20 team playing extremely poorly, and therefore have a lot of upside. That said, I have my concerns about Iowa being that good.
Right now, Iowa State is a near consensus 30th-ish power ranked team. Based on performance so far, I can accept that. But bear in mind that performance so far includes poor performances against UNI and Iowa. So again, that suggests that ISU has a quite a bit of upside, and the ULM slobberknocking suggests that is coming around.
SUMMARY
Baylor is a huge unknown due to lack of being tested, but we know what Baylor has done historically. Iowa State has been better tested, but hasn't necessarily passed that acid test with flying colors.
If there is one difference between the two teams, it is that Iowa State has shown to be the better defense, from a power ranking standpoint. Massey has Iowa State's defense ranked at 35th whereby Baylor's is ranked 81st.
I think though, that Iowa State's defensive ranking includes the overtime scores by UNI, which would skew the data immensely. Therefore I think that Iowa State's defensive ranking is better than what Massey suggests, and therefore gives Iowa State a notable edge in this game.
Overall, this is mostly a toss-up game with the tangibles, especially defense, slightly favoring the Cyclones. So I would go with Iowa State by a field goal.
I highly doubt we are going to see a defensive game (obviously) so with a lot of scoring ( at least over 30 each) this likely comes down to defensive stands at the right time and special teams play. Which of course, the latter is still a concern.
Overall, I see this as a bellweather game. How we do against Baylor is likely indicative of how we will fare in conference play. So lets hope for the best.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
BAYLOR
If anyone wants to see a pre-conference schedule that is about as easy as it can come, just take a look at Baylor's. The Bears have played 217th S.F. Austin, 168 U.T. San Antonio, and 139th Rice.
To compare, the lowest ranked team that Iowa State has played is ULM ranked 125th. So as you can see, Baylor has played the little step-cousins of the Sisters of the Poor.
Baylor beat Austin and Antonio handily 56-17 and 63-14 respectively, similar to what Iowa State did against ULM. But, the Bears barely squeaked out a win against 139th ranked Rice just last week. So what does that mean?
I think we have to be a tad cautious of Rice's ranking. The have played the 13th ranked strength of schedule in the country, and in some of that they have not played that bad, with the Owl's best performance being a 52nd ranked Army, losing 7-14. Combine that with Rice's 13-21 Loss to Baylor, and it not hard to recognize that Rice is capable of playing much better than their 139th ranking.
Therefore, with two lopsided wins against very low teams, and a performance that can be compared to Iowa State's play against UNI, I don't think that Baylor's performance against Rice is indicative nor representative at all.
Indeed, it is not hard to fathom that Baylor was looking forward and preparing for Iowa State, rather than Rice. Which is concerning. What is even more concerning is that Baylor had a bye the week before Rice, leaving two weeks to look ahead to Iowa State. Though with the easy schedule they played, one could argue they have had the whole season to anticipate their first true test.
From my perspective, Baylor's easy schedule leaves just about any statistic of any sort impractical of assessing what Baylor can do. The Bears just simply have not been tested yet. On the other hand, they have had an extensive amount of time to be able to focus on and refine their game.
Sagarin has Baylor ranked 42nd, Massey 55th, and Congrove has them ranked highest at 26. So the power rankings are just as confused over what Baylor's strength is as anybody else is.
IOWA STATE
I have been talking all this year about Iowa State's perennial inverted bathtub curve under Campbell. That is, starting out way slow, and then suddenly vaulting to top performance levels. There is no question that Iowa State has started out slow again this year, but was the ULM that annual break-out game? I certainly hope so.
Iowa State has only three games under their belts, but it doesn't take a graph to show that there has been a drastic upward trend in performance over those three games.
The Clone's performance (score-wise) against the Hawk's sits as representative of their ranking. What we don't know though, is if Iowa's ranking is representative. If it is, it suggests that Iowa State nearly beat a top-20 team playing extremely poorly, and therefore have a lot of upside. That said, I have my concerns about Iowa being that good.
Right now, Iowa State is a near consensus 30th-ish power ranked team. Based on performance so far, I can accept that. But bear in mind that performance so far includes poor performances against UNI and Iowa. So again, that suggests that ISU has a quite a bit of upside, and the ULM slobberknocking suggests that is coming around.
SUMMARY
Baylor is a huge unknown due to lack of being tested, but we know what Baylor has done historically. Iowa State has been better tested, but hasn't necessarily passed that acid test with flying colors.
If there is one difference between the two teams, it is that Iowa State has shown to be the better defense, from a power ranking standpoint. Massey has Iowa State's defense ranked at 35th whereby Baylor's is ranked 81st.
I think though, that Iowa State's defensive ranking includes the overtime scores by UNI, which would skew the data immensely. Therefore I think that Iowa State's defensive ranking is better than what Massey suggests, and therefore gives Iowa State a notable edge in this game.
Overall, this is mostly a toss-up game with the tangibles, especially defense, slightly favoring the Cyclones. So I would go with Iowa State by a field goal.
I highly doubt we are going to see a defensive game (obviously) so with a lot of scoring ( at least over 30 each) this likely comes down to defensive stands at the right time and special teams play. Which of course, the latter is still a concern.
Overall, I see this as a bellweather game. How we do against Baylor is likely indicative of how we will fare in conference play. So lets hope for the best.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
