The Cygarin Ratings have been updated for this week. (Even though I drove all the way across the state and didn't get my promised free lunch today.)
Here is what the Cygarin ratings analysis tells me this week: Nothin'. They're worthless. They are worse than having any data at all.
Here is why....
IOWA
Iowa is currently ranked in the top 20-ish. And they may very well be a top-20 team. The problem is there is very little power ranking data to support Iowa being able to play at their power ranking level.
First of all, most early power rankings are based on last year's performance carried over to this year, until there is enough fresh data to replace it. That definitely has not happened yet.
Secondly, Iowa was indeed a top-20 power ranked team last year. But Iowa never beat a single top-40 power ranked team in regulation last year, except Iowa State who was playing well below top-40 for the early part of the season. To Iowa's credit, they did beat top-25 Mississippi State in their post season bowl game.
Here's the deal with Iowa: They over "score" against all the sub-40 weak teams they played and beat, to the tune of beating the spread against these teams by an average of 17 points per game.
But against top-40 teams, Iowa under "scored" last year by an average of 4 points per game. Those games resulted in losses.
So basically, Iowa's power ranking is over-inflated by beating lowly teams excessively and not being able to perform at their suggested level against their top-40 peers. (Or at least top-30). More or less, that has been a signature of Kirk's teams, benefited by playing few top-30 teams in the first place.
So this year.....
Iowa has played two teams so far that are sub-80, and may very well end the year sub-100. One by 24 points and the other by 30.
So what can we interpret from their performance to date this year? Absolutely nothing! If anything, it is suggestive of Iowa's trend of over-scoring against weak trends. But it is yet to be seen if that trend includes underperforming against top level teams.
Iowa may or may not be a pretty good team this year, but based on Iowa's history of over scoring....the two hefty wins so far margin-wise give us no clue as to what kind of team Iowa can be when it matters.
My own opinion is that there is very little reason to think that Iowa is going to be better than last year, if even as good. But that has yet to be proven either way.
IOWA STATE
Again, past history is the problem here.
During the Campbell era, Iowa State has chronically suffered from an inverted bathtub curve.....starting the season preforming lowly, vaulting to elite performance, and then settling down to somewhat mediocre performance to end the season.
So what did we see against UNI? You got it! The classic low start of the season that likely...if like previous years.....will eventually vault to a much higher level of performance.
So the question is when do we see that leap? Or the bigger question is.....can it possibly be as soon as Saturday?
Two thoughts......
I am STILL dumbfounded by last year's performance against Iowa. But all is forgiven considering how the season played out. I am still convinced that Campbell will not let the horses out of the stable until he believes he has successfully developed his players.
So have these players met Campbell's satisfaction yet, to use them maximally for Iowa? My guess is that you are going to still see Campbell hold the offensive line accountable for at least the early part of the game.
My second thought is that after watching the replay of the UNI game, we are one hell of a lot better than it seemed in real time! It is clear (and Purdy admitted it) that the focus was refining player development.
But if you analyzed performance on a play-by-play basis, our defense totally stifled UNI. And had they not had the quarterback who could outrun any Iowa State player.....and a back-up kicker make back-to-back 50 yarders...….UNI would have had a dismal offensive performance. Our defense did their job, and did it well.
And very similarly with our offense. Play-by-pay-wise....we moved the ball at will, nearly every single play. And we did so with a scary amount of different weapons...and with Purdy tethered to the pocket.
It was not a lack of player ability nor development that created the close game that it was. We may have made errors that cost us....but those errors were not because our players are incapable of doing their fundamental job on any given play. Or put another way....there is no reason to not execute any play in the playbook.
Not the way a fan likes to see a game played out, but we got the win.... and Campbell got a lot of play tape to work on.
So in summary....
The Cygarin Ratings has no current insights to what may happen.
Iowa still has a lot to do to prove that they merit a top-20 (or 30, or 40) ranking until they have shown they can win at that level.
Iowa State has proven they have the horses....the question is whether Campbell will let the horses out of the stable.
Until we see if this last one happens...the outcome of this game is totally unpredictable.
(In my opinion.)
P.S: I kid NebrClone….I kid!
Cygarin Ratings link...
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Here is what the Cygarin ratings analysis tells me this week: Nothin'. They're worthless. They are worse than having any data at all.
Here is why....
IOWA
Iowa is currently ranked in the top 20-ish. And they may very well be a top-20 team. The problem is there is very little power ranking data to support Iowa being able to play at their power ranking level.
First of all, most early power rankings are based on last year's performance carried over to this year, until there is enough fresh data to replace it. That definitely has not happened yet.
Secondly, Iowa was indeed a top-20 power ranked team last year. But Iowa never beat a single top-40 power ranked team in regulation last year, except Iowa State who was playing well below top-40 for the early part of the season. To Iowa's credit, they did beat top-25 Mississippi State in their post season bowl game.
Here's the deal with Iowa: They over "score" against all the sub-40 weak teams they played and beat, to the tune of beating the spread against these teams by an average of 17 points per game.
But against top-40 teams, Iowa under "scored" last year by an average of 4 points per game. Those games resulted in losses.
So basically, Iowa's power ranking is over-inflated by beating lowly teams excessively and not being able to perform at their suggested level against their top-40 peers. (Or at least top-30). More or less, that has been a signature of Kirk's teams, benefited by playing few top-30 teams in the first place.
So this year.....
Iowa has played two teams so far that are sub-80, and may very well end the year sub-100. One by 24 points and the other by 30.
So what can we interpret from their performance to date this year? Absolutely nothing! If anything, it is suggestive of Iowa's trend of over-scoring against weak trends. But it is yet to be seen if that trend includes underperforming against top level teams.
Iowa may or may not be a pretty good team this year, but based on Iowa's history of over scoring....the two hefty wins so far margin-wise give us no clue as to what kind of team Iowa can be when it matters.
My own opinion is that there is very little reason to think that Iowa is going to be better than last year, if even as good. But that has yet to be proven either way.
IOWA STATE
Again, past history is the problem here.
During the Campbell era, Iowa State has chronically suffered from an inverted bathtub curve.....starting the season preforming lowly, vaulting to elite performance, and then settling down to somewhat mediocre performance to end the season.
So what did we see against UNI? You got it! The classic low start of the season that likely...if like previous years.....will eventually vault to a much higher level of performance.
So the question is when do we see that leap? Or the bigger question is.....can it possibly be as soon as Saturday?
Two thoughts......
I am STILL dumbfounded by last year's performance against Iowa. But all is forgiven considering how the season played out. I am still convinced that Campbell will not let the horses out of the stable until he believes he has successfully developed his players.
So have these players met Campbell's satisfaction yet, to use them maximally for Iowa? My guess is that you are going to still see Campbell hold the offensive line accountable for at least the early part of the game.
My second thought is that after watching the replay of the UNI game, we are one hell of a lot better than it seemed in real time! It is clear (and Purdy admitted it) that the focus was refining player development.
But if you analyzed performance on a play-by-play basis, our defense totally stifled UNI. And had they not had the quarterback who could outrun any Iowa State player.....and a back-up kicker make back-to-back 50 yarders...….UNI would have had a dismal offensive performance. Our defense did their job, and did it well.
And very similarly with our offense. Play-by-pay-wise....we moved the ball at will, nearly every single play. And we did so with a scary amount of different weapons...and with Purdy tethered to the pocket.
It was not a lack of player ability nor development that created the close game that it was. We may have made errors that cost us....but those errors were not because our players are incapable of doing their fundamental job on any given play. Or put another way....there is no reason to not execute any play in the playbook.
Not the way a fan likes to see a game played out, but we got the win.... and Campbell got a lot of play tape to work on.
So in summary....
The Cygarin Ratings has no current insights to what may happen.
Iowa still has a lot to do to prove that they merit a top-20 (or 30, or 40) ranking until they have shown they can win at that level.
Iowa State has proven they have the horses....the question is whether Campbell will let the horses out of the stable.
Until we see if this last one happens...the outcome of this game is totally unpredictable.
(In my opinion.)
P.S: I kid NebrClone….I kid!
Cygarin Ratings link...
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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