The Cygarin Ratings have been updated with the Congrove Preseason Ratings.
As I noted earlier, I'm not a big fan of the Congrove ratings during the season, but I do like them for their preseason ratings because the make a concerted effort to actually predict a team's strength based on returning starters, key positions, coaching changes, etc. that would impact a team's rank compared with last year.
So with that explanation noted, color me flabbergasted at what Congove has to say about the upcoming season. Namely Congrove is very high on Iowa State, and not very impressed with the Big-12's overall strength this year. I don't know if I believe it, but as a preseason ranking that is making the effort to be truly predictive....I ain't going to argue at this point in time.
Iowa State is ranked a staggering 15th out of the gate, unheard of by Congrove. (Unheard of by ANYBODY!) Compare that to starting 44th last year.
The Cyclones finished 34th last year with Congrove, which is a pretty accurate average of last year's performance. But that was an average based on the middle 50% of the year where Iowa State played like a solid top-10 team, but the first and last 25% last 25% were well below that.
To go from finishing 34th to starting 15th is one heck of leap, so Congrove sees a LOT returning that benefits Iowa State. Phil Steele backs that up somewhat, showing Iowa State tied for 10th for having most returning starters.
The other notable thing is that Congrove is not impressed with the Big-12 beyond Iowa State and Oklahoma, and has the Big-12 ranked 5th among the five P5 conferences. I don't believe that at all, but Iowa State certainly deserves to FINALLY have that year where Iowa State is up, and the rest of the conference is down.
To put an exclamation mark on that, as it stands, Iowa State is projected to play a strength of schedule ranked about 50th in the country....one heck of a long ways from the nearly perennial top-25 strength of schedules that the Clones are used to be playing.
Summarily, Congrove has Iowa State as favored in eleven games, all eleven of them by six points or more. Only the Sooners on the road is a game we are not favored in.
Throw probability into the fray, and the clones are showing 9.4 wins.
Also interestingly, the rankings show Iowa State to be two touchdown favorites over the six teams lowest ranked teams we need to beat to become bowl eligible. The highest ranked team we need to beat being about a 50th power ranked equivalent.
IOWA.....
I'm not going to waste time discussing Iowa much, but if this schedule holds true for both teams....there IS such a thing as karma. Iowa is potentially facing perhaps the toughest schedule I have ever seen them play since I have been doing the Cygarin Raings. And that has been a long, long time.
This reminds of lot of the 2002 season, except with reverse roles. That year both teams were equally good, but Iowa State played a top-5 strength of schedule, and Iowa played a pathetically easy schedule.
If this stands, this will be the hardest schedule that Kirk Ferentz has ever faced at Iowa. And as an extra kick in the nads…....Iowa plays their three toughest opponents and four of their six toughest opponents on the road.
Cross your fingers.…with a little luck......this could be a double fun year! (If you know what I mean. )
(In my opinion)
Cygarin Foootball Ratings link......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
As I noted earlier, I'm not a big fan of the Congrove ratings during the season, but I do like them for their preseason ratings because the make a concerted effort to actually predict a team's strength based on returning starters, key positions, coaching changes, etc. that would impact a team's rank compared with last year.
So with that explanation noted, color me flabbergasted at what Congove has to say about the upcoming season. Namely Congrove is very high on Iowa State, and not very impressed with the Big-12's overall strength this year. I don't know if I believe it, but as a preseason ranking that is making the effort to be truly predictive....I ain't going to argue at this point in time.
Iowa State is ranked a staggering 15th out of the gate, unheard of by Congrove. (Unheard of by ANYBODY!) Compare that to starting 44th last year.
The Cyclones finished 34th last year with Congrove, which is a pretty accurate average of last year's performance. But that was an average based on the middle 50% of the year where Iowa State played like a solid top-10 team, but the first and last 25% last 25% were well below that.
To go from finishing 34th to starting 15th is one heck of leap, so Congrove sees a LOT returning that benefits Iowa State. Phil Steele backs that up somewhat, showing Iowa State tied for 10th for having most returning starters.
The other notable thing is that Congrove is not impressed with the Big-12 beyond Iowa State and Oklahoma, and has the Big-12 ranked 5th among the five P5 conferences. I don't believe that at all, but Iowa State certainly deserves to FINALLY have that year where Iowa State is up, and the rest of the conference is down.
To put an exclamation mark on that, as it stands, Iowa State is projected to play a strength of schedule ranked about 50th in the country....one heck of a long ways from the nearly perennial top-25 strength of schedules that the Clones are used to be playing.
Summarily, Congrove has Iowa State as favored in eleven games, all eleven of them by six points or more. Only the Sooners on the road is a game we are not favored in.
Throw probability into the fray, and the clones are showing 9.4 wins.
Also interestingly, the rankings show Iowa State to be two touchdown favorites over the six teams lowest ranked teams we need to beat to become bowl eligible. The highest ranked team we need to beat being about a 50th power ranked equivalent.
IOWA.....
I'm not going to waste time discussing Iowa much, but if this schedule holds true for both teams....there IS such a thing as karma. Iowa is potentially facing perhaps the toughest schedule I have ever seen them play since I have been doing the Cygarin Raings. And that has been a long, long time.
This reminds of lot of the 2002 season, except with reverse roles. That year both teams were equally good, but Iowa State played a top-5 strength of schedule, and Iowa played a pathetically easy schedule.
If this stands, this will be the hardest schedule that Kirk Ferentz has ever faced at Iowa. And as an extra kick in the nads…....Iowa plays their three toughest opponents and four of their six toughest opponents on the road.
Cross your fingers.…with a little luck......this could be a double fun year! (If you know what I mean. )
(In my opinion)
Cygarin Foootball Ratings link......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
