The Cygarin Ratings has been updated. This has been one difficult analysis. The power ratings (and the polls) are in a really weird place. All of them. The best I can tell, this based on a lot of reasons...
For starters, regardless of the opinions of any pundits, there appears to be an incredible abundance of parity on the country, to the point that I'm not sure who may be top-15, or top-25 much less playoff contenders.
Next, there seems to be a limited amount of competition amongst peer teams, so at any particular level there hasn't been enough intermingling data points to sort things out. Ohio State is a prime example of that, as I pointed out in another post.
Another is that there has been an unusual amount of early (particularly first) game anomalies. Such as Maryland beating Texas, Akron beating Northwestern, Mississippi beating Texas Tech, Akron not playing Nebraska, Iowa State not playing SDSU, etc.
And of course, and excessive amount of games where good teams beating up on Sisters of the Poor, exaggerating their rating, and the power ratings haven't sorted them out yet.
As result, a lot of ratings don't make sense, and don't agree with each other, and have yet to figure out which games are the outliers, and which games are relevant. But they appear to be trying, and getting it wrong often.
I think in the next couple of weeks we are going to see a lot of shifting around of the power rankings as the formulas sort out which games are the right ones that matter. Some of the shifts are going to be significant.
So with that said, let's see what we can figure out for Texas Tech and Iowa State. I'll start with Texas Tech first...
TEXAS TECH
As mentioned already, Texas Tech had one of those anomaly first games. They should have been seven point favorites, and instead got pounded 47-27. The Raiders then followed that up with 77-0 pounding of lowly (lower than Incarnate word) Lamar. After that, things settled down for Tech, starting with Houston and followed by conference play. And playing well. Very well.
Texas Tech is ranked 24th in the county by Sagarin, 23rd by Congrove, 33rd Massey, 31st by Superlist, 26th by the AP poll and 39th by the USA poll. The Red Raiders are all over the map.
Based on the Cygarin Ratings analysis. Tech is playing about five points over their Sagarin Rating starting with Houston, meaning that they are playing at a level of 10th in the country.
Indeed, their only below rating performance since their first game is their loss to West Virginia, which was a 9-point below rating dud. Thus, in three out of their last four games the Raiders averaged over eight points above their current rating....solidly a top-10 performance.
Texas Tech's performance really, REALLY concerns me.
This is a team that wobbled in their first couple of games, and since then have settled to a very consistent top-15 level of play. With the exception of West Virginia.
TTU played their second worst game of the season against the Mountaineers, nine points below their ranking, and for that matter close to 17 points below their best three of the last four. So, was this an anomaly or perhaps an indictor that Tech can be inconsistent? Or is West Virginia the inconsistent team instead?
From my point of view, there is not very much to suggest that Texas Tech is not the real deal. Indeed the data could make an argument that Tech is the second best performing team in the conference right now, and maybe even the best.
On the other hand, the Red Raiders do indeed appear to have a soft spot. Their defense is power ranked 61st in the country, making them one of the lower ranked defenses we have faced. Iowa State has fared very well offensively against lower ranked defenses.
Regardless, the power rankings suggest that Texas Tech is capable of giving us one of the best fights of the year so far...and that is what I am expecting to get from them.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State too is all over the board, Sagarin has them ranked 36th, Superlist has them 35th, but Congrove has them 27th, and Massey has them 24th.
But Iowa State is one of Sagarin's rankings that doesn't make sense.....Iowa State has played only one game below their ranking....but five games above! I see no logical statistical method that would would allow Sagarin to rate Iowa State as low as his ratings did!
The absolutely worst case scenario is to throw WVU out as an outlier, but even then Iowa State would average at least one point higher than where they are now. To be fair, that's is close, and maybe the most reasonable answer for why Iowa State is so low.
But Akron is also an out of ordinary game (to the negative) so if you leave both in, or take both out....you have Iowa State playing two to three points better than their current rating. That would put Iowa State at a lower top-25 level. That, in my opinion, should be where Iowa State should be rated on a season long average.
But, the trend.....
Iowa State's performance has soared in the last two weeks. OSU was a eight point over-performance, and WVU was a lofty seventeen. That's a performance that has taken off like a ballistic missile.
Does these last two games under Purdy represent a "new" offense similar to last year when Kempt took over? If it does, it MINIMALLY means that Iowa State is now playing at a level of 10th in the country. (Ironically the same as Texas Tech.)
Even if you use the last three conference games (TCU, OSU,WVU), you come up with Iowa State has been playing at a level of about 15th in the country....but the trend us up!
So, there is a very solid (though a very limited data set) argument that Iowa State has recently been averaging playing at a top-10 level, and it is my best opinion that is what should be used against Texas Tech.
Also, Iowa State's defense continues to rise, and is currently ranked 10th in the country. That's second behind Texas in the Big-12. And for those of you fending off the TOE's... that defense would be third in the Big-10.
But what is even more important, the defense seems to be particularly effective against spread offenses, which Texas Tech is certainly that!
Lastly, Iowa State owns the top ranked SOS in the country, which means that this team has been fairly well heat treated, and we seem to be in pretty good health.
I also think the bye week was well timed for us to take on Texas Tech, getting Montgomery healthy, and tweaking Purdy for Texas Tech.
SUMMARY
This game has all the makings for a street brawl. Both teams appear to be playing at a high level of play at this point of time, well above their assumed rankings, and possibly at the top of the conference.
Futhermore, both teams are fighting to stay alive for the CCG race....and for the loser it is death. There is no overlooking the other team. Both teams has byes to prepare for the other team (though I think we stand to benefit more.)
Texas Tech has the advantage that they appear to have been playing better longer. They have more credibility to support their lofty play. They do though have the WVU performance as a chink in their recent armor, but it wasn't necessarily all that excessive.
Texas Tech's glaring weakness is their defense.
By far, Iowa State's biggest advantage is having the home field. A close second is having one of the best defenses in the country, and is seemingly particularly good against spread offenses. It fits playing Texas Tech very well.
Iowa State's weakness is being much less established at top-10 caliber play, followed by what is (very) arguably a offense that is well behind the defense.
Though it appears that Iowa State should get the nod in this game by virtue of home field advantage, I just can't pull the trigger on that. There are just too many variable for me to think that advantage is offset by something.
I'm calling this a pick'em bar fight brawl. But have to admit that I have this purdy good hinky feeling about this one. But feelings don't win games.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link...…
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
For starters, regardless of the opinions of any pundits, there appears to be an incredible abundance of parity on the country, to the point that I'm not sure who may be top-15, or top-25 much less playoff contenders.
Next, there seems to be a limited amount of competition amongst peer teams, so at any particular level there hasn't been enough intermingling data points to sort things out. Ohio State is a prime example of that, as I pointed out in another post.
Another is that there has been an unusual amount of early (particularly first) game anomalies. Such as Maryland beating Texas, Akron beating Northwestern, Mississippi beating Texas Tech, Akron not playing Nebraska, Iowa State not playing SDSU, etc.
And of course, and excessive amount of games where good teams beating up on Sisters of the Poor, exaggerating their rating, and the power ratings haven't sorted them out yet.
As result, a lot of ratings don't make sense, and don't agree with each other, and have yet to figure out which games are the outliers, and which games are relevant. But they appear to be trying, and getting it wrong often.
I think in the next couple of weeks we are going to see a lot of shifting around of the power rankings as the formulas sort out which games are the right ones that matter. Some of the shifts are going to be significant.
So with that said, let's see what we can figure out for Texas Tech and Iowa State. I'll start with Texas Tech first...
TEXAS TECH
As mentioned already, Texas Tech had one of those anomaly first games. They should have been seven point favorites, and instead got pounded 47-27. The Raiders then followed that up with 77-0 pounding of lowly (lower than Incarnate word) Lamar. After that, things settled down for Tech, starting with Houston and followed by conference play. And playing well. Very well.
Texas Tech is ranked 24th in the county by Sagarin, 23rd by Congrove, 33rd Massey, 31st by Superlist, 26th by the AP poll and 39th by the USA poll. The Red Raiders are all over the map.
Based on the Cygarin Ratings analysis. Tech is playing about five points over their Sagarin Rating starting with Houston, meaning that they are playing at a level of 10th in the country.
Indeed, their only below rating performance since their first game is their loss to West Virginia, which was a 9-point below rating dud. Thus, in three out of their last four games the Raiders averaged over eight points above their current rating....solidly a top-10 performance.
Texas Tech's performance really, REALLY concerns me.
This is a team that wobbled in their first couple of games, and since then have settled to a very consistent top-15 level of play. With the exception of West Virginia.
TTU played their second worst game of the season against the Mountaineers, nine points below their ranking, and for that matter close to 17 points below their best three of the last four. So, was this an anomaly or perhaps an indictor that Tech can be inconsistent? Or is West Virginia the inconsistent team instead?
From my point of view, there is not very much to suggest that Texas Tech is not the real deal. Indeed the data could make an argument that Tech is the second best performing team in the conference right now, and maybe even the best.
On the other hand, the Red Raiders do indeed appear to have a soft spot. Their defense is power ranked 61st in the country, making them one of the lower ranked defenses we have faced. Iowa State has fared very well offensively against lower ranked defenses.
Regardless, the power rankings suggest that Texas Tech is capable of giving us one of the best fights of the year so far...and that is what I am expecting to get from them.
IOWA STATE
Iowa State too is all over the board, Sagarin has them ranked 36th, Superlist has them 35th, but Congrove has them 27th, and Massey has them 24th.
But Iowa State is one of Sagarin's rankings that doesn't make sense.....Iowa State has played only one game below their ranking....but five games above! I see no logical statistical method that would would allow Sagarin to rate Iowa State as low as his ratings did!
The absolutely worst case scenario is to throw WVU out as an outlier, but even then Iowa State would average at least one point higher than where they are now. To be fair, that's is close, and maybe the most reasonable answer for why Iowa State is so low.
But Akron is also an out of ordinary game (to the negative) so if you leave both in, or take both out....you have Iowa State playing two to three points better than their current rating. That would put Iowa State at a lower top-25 level. That, in my opinion, should be where Iowa State should be rated on a season long average.
But, the trend.....
Iowa State's performance has soared in the last two weeks. OSU was a eight point over-performance, and WVU was a lofty seventeen. That's a performance that has taken off like a ballistic missile.
Does these last two games under Purdy represent a "new" offense similar to last year when Kempt took over? If it does, it MINIMALLY means that Iowa State is now playing at a level of 10th in the country. (Ironically the same as Texas Tech.)
Even if you use the last three conference games (TCU, OSU,WVU), you come up with Iowa State has been playing at a level of about 15th in the country....but the trend us up!
So, there is a very solid (though a very limited data set) argument that Iowa State has recently been averaging playing at a top-10 level, and it is my best opinion that is what should be used against Texas Tech.
Also, Iowa State's defense continues to rise, and is currently ranked 10th in the country. That's second behind Texas in the Big-12. And for those of you fending off the TOE's... that defense would be third in the Big-10.
But what is even more important, the defense seems to be particularly effective against spread offenses, which Texas Tech is certainly that!
Lastly, Iowa State owns the top ranked SOS in the country, which means that this team has been fairly well heat treated, and we seem to be in pretty good health.
I also think the bye week was well timed for us to take on Texas Tech, getting Montgomery healthy, and tweaking Purdy for Texas Tech.
SUMMARY
This game has all the makings for a street brawl. Both teams appear to be playing at a high level of play at this point of time, well above their assumed rankings, and possibly at the top of the conference.
Futhermore, both teams are fighting to stay alive for the CCG race....and for the loser it is death. There is no overlooking the other team. Both teams has byes to prepare for the other team (though I think we stand to benefit more.)
Texas Tech has the advantage that they appear to have been playing better longer. They have more credibility to support their lofty play. They do though have the WVU performance as a chink in their recent armor, but it wasn't necessarily all that excessive.
Texas Tech's glaring weakness is their defense.
By far, Iowa State's biggest advantage is having the home field. A close second is having one of the best defenses in the country, and is seemingly particularly good against spread offenses. It fits playing Texas Tech very well.
Iowa State's weakness is being much less established at top-10 caliber play, followed by what is (very) arguably a offense that is well behind the defense.
Though it appears that Iowa State should get the nod in this game by virtue of home field advantage, I just can't pull the trigger on that. There are just too many variable for me to think that advantage is offset by something.
I'm calling this a pick'em bar fight brawl. But have to admit that I have this purdy good hinky feeling about this one. But feelings don't win games.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link...…
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
