The Cygarin Ratings has been updated. Typically I use Sagarin's ratings, and at the start of the season I last year's final ratings rather than his preseason ratings. Sagarin points out that his preseason ratings are not intended to represent any sort of anticipated performance, but rather a starting point other than zero for everyone.
For this week, I have temporarily switched over to using Congrove power ratings. Congrove actually does try to make a predictive preseason ratings that is more or less using last year as a starting point, and applying returning players and coaching changes to suggest a movement up or down from that point. Beyond that, for what it is worth, I don't like Congrove's ratings for a multitude of reasons.
Regardless, the "power" status quo of the collegiate football seems to me to be in a huge state of flux, with no clear cut direction yet what is going to shake out.
At this time, I broadly agree with the pundits who are suggesting that the Big-12 is down. And for that matter, I think the Big-10 mid-level, and a lot of the lower level, is up. There is more potential for parity between conferences than there has been in several years. That suggests a benefit for Iowa State, and a liability for Iowa. At least compared to the past.
All in all, especially since Iowa State DNP'ed Saturday, I don't consider there much for quantifiable analysis to be gleaned going into the Iowa State - Iowa game Saturday.
My opinion prior to Saturday was that both teams were top-25 caliber teams (Congrove agrees) going into this game, and that the result of both of Saturday's games would support that. I anticipated both teams to have solid wins over good, but not top P5 caliber, opponents.
Furthermore, I anticipated that both teams were going to be capable of winning by brute force, and leaving the majority of the playbook in the locker room. And in doing so, use the game to knock the rust off and tighten up the lose bolts. And get some inexperienced players critical experience. Iowa got to do this, Iowa State didn't.
Previously, my analytical gut (that's an oxymoron of sorts) thought that Iowa State held the better hand than Iowa this year, with the only "better" card Iowa was holding was being the home field advantage.
Last year they played to a dead heat in regulation, suggesting that these teams were reasonably equal. Which at the time, I think the were. However, Iowa State went on to some spectacularly better play the major part of the season, and an "Iowa" level of performance was the bottom bar from thereon out.
Iowa, on the other hand, had only two games the entire season that was notably better than the Iowa State - Iowa game performance, and only one of those performances was against a relefvant team. Ohio State was the number two team in the county...but Nebraska was a consensus sub-70 team.
I can clearly make an argument that Iowa State substantially improved overall after Iowa last year, but was still capable of playing at Iowa's caliber (But with an injured Kempt) I can also make the argument that Iowa State should be at least as good as last year.
Comparatively speaking, not only did Iowa not substantially improve last year, but with the exception of two games, they showed no higher bar of performance last year at all after Iowa State.
With that in mind, my opinion was that Iowa State was anticipated to be the better team going into the season, with Iowa holding the benefit of being the home team for this game.
Quantifiably, the difference between home versus away is seven points. (Home being three points over a neutral location.) Even with that, I felt that from a probability standpoint, Iowa State would be a three point favorite with about a 60% chance of winning, which is still essentially a toss-up game. But I liked Iowa State's chances even under the adverse conditions of playing in their yard.
Now, after Iowa States non-game, my gut has entirely flipped...…
If this was a normal year, I wouldn't put as much weight into Iowa having a one-game advantage under it's belt. Most years see either or both teams being average at best. This year is different.
Indeed, my opinion is that this is the first year EVER, that I anticipate that both teams are top-25 caliber teams goin in. To be fair, they have indeed played each other when both teams were good, 2002 is the best example. But we didn't know it (or even think it) going IN to the game.
My concern is in turnovers and costly mistakes. It is usually the case that the team that makes the least mistakes wins the game, especially when two relatively equal teams play. Turnovers being the difference maker when all other things are equal.
However, in normal circumstances when average or lower teams play........it comes down to who makes the least number of mistakes that are almost to be expected.....rather than who plays the game the most mistake free.
That is where this year is different. Both teams go into the season allegedly being better than average teams, and therefore less likely than average to make mistakes. Except......NOW Iowa has what I consider to be a huge scale-tilter as a result of having a game to get the kinks out and make corrections to avoid otherwise unforeseen things to be corrected.
To every Hawkeye buddy of mine I have talked to...if Iowa State goes through a quarter and a half getting the kinks out like Iowa did against NIU....this game could easily be over at halftime with Iowa having an insurmountable lead.
In some ways, I can see Iowa State wanting to play more conservative on offense in the first half to both avoid those sort of costly mistakes, as well as keeping the clock moving to get the team into the locker room to make necessary adjustments. Thus, saving the game for the second half to be won.
To be fair, Iowa State being rusty is purely hypothetical . If anybody can have their team rust free going into a game like this....I think it is Campbell. Bielema would probably vouch for that.
I also think that Iowa State has the advantage in football's rock-paper-scissors matchups....and that Iowa State's spread and speed out-trump Iowa's trench warfare. So, I'm not saying that even with rust, the advantages have summarily slipped to one side.
I don't think it takes a football scientist (and I'm sure as hell not one) that both teams will load up the box and try force the other team to pass. Iowa will want to force those rusty mistakes on Iowa State, and Iowa State will want to force Iowa into the weaker part of their offense.
So it seems to me that if one team can indeed establish a run threat.....that team will win the game. That's Iowa's bread and butter way of winning......and that favors them.
If neither team can successfully establish the run game, and that is very likely..... then I tend to like Iowa State's chances a whole lot better....but that depends on avoiding screwing the pooch due to being rusty. Which is why I am deeply concerned.
I have no sort of prediction for this game. I think it is way beyond predicable since we have not seen Iowa State play.
If Iowa State can overcome the dual handicap of playing on the road and not having played a game.....I'm going to be damned excited about the rest of season.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
For this week, I have temporarily switched over to using Congrove power ratings. Congrove actually does try to make a predictive preseason ratings that is more or less using last year as a starting point, and applying returning players and coaching changes to suggest a movement up or down from that point. Beyond that, for what it is worth, I don't like Congrove's ratings for a multitude of reasons.
Regardless, the "power" status quo of the collegiate football seems to me to be in a huge state of flux, with no clear cut direction yet what is going to shake out.
At this time, I broadly agree with the pundits who are suggesting that the Big-12 is down. And for that matter, I think the Big-10 mid-level, and a lot of the lower level, is up. There is more potential for parity between conferences than there has been in several years. That suggests a benefit for Iowa State, and a liability for Iowa. At least compared to the past.
All in all, especially since Iowa State DNP'ed Saturday, I don't consider there much for quantifiable analysis to be gleaned going into the Iowa State - Iowa game Saturday.
My opinion prior to Saturday was that both teams were top-25 caliber teams (Congrove agrees) going into this game, and that the result of both of Saturday's games would support that. I anticipated both teams to have solid wins over good, but not top P5 caliber, opponents.
Furthermore, I anticipated that both teams were going to be capable of winning by brute force, and leaving the majority of the playbook in the locker room. And in doing so, use the game to knock the rust off and tighten up the lose bolts. And get some inexperienced players critical experience. Iowa got to do this, Iowa State didn't.
Previously, my analytical gut (that's an oxymoron of sorts) thought that Iowa State held the better hand than Iowa this year, with the only "better" card Iowa was holding was being the home field advantage.
Last year they played to a dead heat in regulation, suggesting that these teams were reasonably equal. Which at the time, I think the were. However, Iowa State went on to some spectacularly better play the major part of the season, and an "Iowa" level of performance was the bottom bar from thereon out.
Iowa, on the other hand, had only two games the entire season that was notably better than the Iowa State - Iowa game performance, and only one of those performances was against a relefvant team. Ohio State was the number two team in the county...but Nebraska was a consensus sub-70 team.
I can clearly make an argument that Iowa State substantially improved overall after Iowa last year, but was still capable of playing at Iowa's caliber (But with an injured Kempt) I can also make the argument that Iowa State should be at least as good as last year.
Comparatively speaking, not only did Iowa not substantially improve last year, but with the exception of two games, they showed no higher bar of performance last year at all after Iowa State.
With that in mind, my opinion was that Iowa State was anticipated to be the better team going into the season, with Iowa holding the benefit of being the home team for this game.
Quantifiably, the difference between home versus away is seven points. (Home being three points over a neutral location.) Even with that, I felt that from a probability standpoint, Iowa State would be a three point favorite with about a 60% chance of winning, which is still essentially a toss-up game. But I liked Iowa State's chances even under the adverse conditions of playing in their yard.
Now, after Iowa States non-game, my gut has entirely flipped...…
If this was a normal year, I wouldn't put as much weight into Iowa having a one-game advantage under it's belt. Most years see either or both teams being average at best. This year is different.
Indeed, my opinion is that this is the first year EVER, that I anticipate that both teams are top-25 caliber teams goin in. To be fair, they have indeed played each other when both teams were good, 2002 is the best example. But we didn't know it (or even think it) going IN to the game.
My concern is in turnovers and costly mistakes. It is usually the case that the team that makes the least mistakes wins the game, especially when two relatively equal teams play. Turnovers being the difference maker when all other things are equal.
However, in normal circumstances when average or lower teams play........it comes down to who makes the least number of mistakes that are almost to be expected.....rather than who plays the game the most mistake free.
That is where this year is different. Both teams go into the season allegedly being better than average teams, and therefore less likely than average to make mistakes. Except......NOW Iowa has what I consider to be a huge scale-tilter as a result of having a game to get the kinks out and make corrections to avoid otherwise unforeseen things to be corrected.
To every Hawkeye buddy of mine I have talked to...if Iowa State goes through a quarter and a half getting the kinks out like Iowa did against NIU....this game could easily be over at halftime with Iowa having an insurmountable lead.
In some ways, I can see Iowa State wanting to play more conservative on offense in the first half to both avoid those sort of costly mistakes, as well as keeping the clock moving to get the team into the locker room to make necessary adjustments. Thus, saving the game for the second half to be won.
To be fair, Iowa State being rusty is purely hypothetical . If anybody can have their team rust free going into a game like this....I think it is Campbell. Bielema would probably vouch for that.
I also think that Iowa State has the advantage in football's rock-paper-scissors matchups....and that Iowa State's spread and speed out-trump Iowa's trench warfare. So, I'm not saying that even with rust, the advantages have summarily slipped to one side.
I don't think it takes a football scientist (and I'm sure as hell not one) that both teams will load up the box and try force the other team to pass. Iowa will want to force those rusty mistakes on Iowa State, and Iowa State will want to force Iowa into the weaker part of their offense.
So it seems to me that if one team can indeed establish a run threat.....that team will win the game. That's Iowa's bread and butter way of winning......and that favors them.
If neither team can successfully establish the run game, and that is very likely..... then I tend to like Iowa State's chances a whole lot better....but that depends on avoiding screwing the pooch due to being rusty. Which is why I am deeply concerned.
I have no sort of prediction for this game. I think it is way beyond predicable since we have not seen Iowa State play.
If Iowa State can overcome the dual handicap of playing on the road and not having played a game.....I'm going to be damned excited about the rest of season.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/cygarin-ratings-update-or-properly-a-look-back.44604/
