Last week I had this conversation with Cylent.....
Question: "How many weeks must a team play at a top-10 level to make it true and somewhat predictable????"
Answer: "If we present a top-10 performance against Texas Tech, I will piddle on the floor like an excited puppy. But let's be realistic, I'm fretting a win at all."
No one thought to ask me how I would react if we soundly beat Texas Tech...on the road by 18 points! So, just exactly how do I feel now????? Depends!!!!!
Essentially, the 18 point win over Texas Tech puts that win above the anticipated performance of the number 1 power ranked team in the country. And as I noted before, one has to consider that we spotted the Red Raiders six points to start the game, and (arguably) left 7 points on the field at the end of the game.
So now that Cylent's hypothetical question has been answered.... one really has to digest just where Iowa State is right now based on the last three games in a row...
A No. 1-plus power ranked performance against No. 11 Oklahoma.....on the road.
A No. 7 power ranked performance against 155th Kansas at home....in adverse conditions, with heavy substation at the end of the game.
A No. 1-plus power ranked performance against 36th Texas....on the road, again.
I have spent since Sunday trying to figure out just what data I should use. Season average? Last three games? Throw out the high and low?
I have an incredible urge to downplay Iowa State's performance below the last three games, but I can't honesty come up with any angle that makes more sense other than recognizing what the data in front of my face is telling me....and that means that the last three games is the proper set of data to apply.
There is only one chart or graph that makes any sense at all, and that is the Season Performance Chart. Take a good look at that chart, and it shows that Iowa State was consistently and steadily plodding along at a power ranking of about 34th in the country. That, in its own right is not shabby at all!
Then instantly, the Cyclones vaulted to playing like a solid and consistent (if three consecutive games is enough to call consistent) top-10 team. Indeed, two of the three are beyond No. 1!!!
What is interesting is that this is not the first time a leap like this has happened in the Campbell era. Last year Iowa State did the same thing after its first three games, though last year the starting point was much lower, and the jump was from really bad to something at least promsing.
So, in a nutshell, I have decided that I will base this week's Iowa State's current power ranking, and the rest of the spreadsheet accordingly.....on Iowa State's three game trend. That puts Iowa State's current performance equal to the No. 4 team in the country.
Now....the question is....how does one apply the probability that Iowa State can do that for a 4th consecutive game against the 12 power ranked team in the country?????
Honestly, analytically I don't know! That fact of the matter is...it difficult for any top-10 team to have four consecutive top-10 performances, but that is true also for TCU. So something potentially has to give.
In my opinion, all the intangibles should favor TCU. If nothing else, one could suggest that the chances are 3 out of 7 for the Clones.... since Iowa State has had three good games at this level, and four games at a much lower level. Whereby TCU has had a season long go at it. But...... that doesn't take into consideration that Iowa State owns a solid recent trend, that matches or exceeds TCU's last three games.
I could come up with some method that weighs more recent games heavier than earlier games, but what factor do I use? So.....screw it!.......I'm must going to leave things based on the last three games, and let the chips fall where they may on the field.
That having been said...the rest of the spreadsheet suggests some mind boggling scenarios about the rest of the season. However, I am refusing to engage in any conversation about that. For now, I'm sticking with our chances against TCU.
About TCU....
As it stands right now, TCU is undefeated, power ranked 12th by Sagarin, and 9th by Massey, against the 60th ranked SOS in the country.
Their offense is power ranked 24th in the country, and their defense is power ranked 5th in the country. For comparison, Oklahoma's defense is power ranked 4th.
TCU's SOS is rather skewed by having played sub-500 Jackson State, and even sub-150 Kansas. They have indeed played some quality teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and won both of those respectfully. Though, they did just not walk a way from 38th West Virginia at home...a team that we could compare to us playing Texas Tech.
I have done some analysis of TCU, and their trend lines show that they are performing at, or perhaps slightly above their power ranking, most especially against teams that are their peers. But, just like any team, their performance fluctuates somewhat around their average by about ten points.
Thus, assuming we all want to believe that Iowa State is a real top-10 team, this game comes down to being a matter of whatever may happen once these teams take the field.
GAME SUMMARY
The bottom line is that (based on the last three game of Iowa State)...at home I have Iowa State as an unfathomable eight point favorite. Worst case is that I credit TCU for playing a tad better than their power ranking....so lets just call Iowa State a 3 to 6 point favorite in this one, with a roughly 65% chance of winning the game.
Do I believe that????? Heck no!
But someone a lot smarter than me has to point out just what I should use quantifiably to suggest something otherwise. The trend is what it is.....until it isn't.
If nothing else, lets not forget what happened the week following the Texas Tech game last year. It wasn't pretty.
As I mentioned in another thread, my bladder will remain a problem until we get that all elusive sixth win.
I don't care who it comes against, but TCU win would make the rest of the season much easier to recline back and enjoy my beer.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Question: "How many weeks must a team play at a top-10 level to make it true and somewhat predictable????"
Answer: "If we present a top-10 performance against Texas Tech, I will piddle on the floor like an excited puppy. But let's be realistic, I'm fretting a win at all."
No one thought to ask me how I would react if we soundly beat Texas Tech...on the road by 18 points! So, just exactly how do I feel now????? Depends!!!!!
Essentially, the 18 point win over Texas Tech puts that win above the anticipated performance of the number 1 power ranked team in the country. And as I noted before, one has to consider that we spotted the Red Raiders six points to start the game, and (arguably) left 7 points on the field at the end of the game.
So now that Cylent's hypothetical question has been answered.... one really has to digest just where Iowa State is right now based on the last three games in a row...
A No. 1-plus power ranked performance against No. 11 Oklahoma.....on the road.
A No. 7 power ranked performance against 155th Kansas at home....in adverse conditions, with heavy substation at the end of the game.
A No. 1-plus power ranked performance against 36th Texas....on the road, again.
I have spent since Sunday trying to figure out just what data I should use. Season average? Last three games? Throw out the high and low?
I have an incredible urge to downplay Iowa State's performance below the last three games, but I can't honesty come up with any angle that makes more sense other than recognizing what the data in front of my face is telling me....and that means that the last three games is the proper set of data to apply.
There is only one chart or graph that makes any sense at all, and that is the Season Performance Chart. Take a good look at that chart, and it shows that Iowa State was consistently and steadily plodding along at a power ranking of about 34th in the country. That, in its own right is not shabby at all!
Then instantly, the Cyclones vaulted to playing like a solid and consistent (if three consecutive games is enough to call consistent) top-10 team. Indeed, two of the three are beyond No. 1!!!
What is interesting is that this is not the first time a leap like this has happened in the Campbell era. Last year Iowa State did the same thing after its first three games, though last year the starting point was much lower, and the jump was from really bad to something at least promsing.
So, in a nutshell, I have decided that I will base this week's Iowa State's current power ranking, and the rest of the spreadsheet accordingly.....on Iowa State's three game trend. That puts Iowa State's current performance equal to the No. 4 team in the country.
Now....the question is....how does one apply the probability that Iowa State can do that for a 4th consecutive game against the 12 power ranked team in the country?????
Honestly, analytically I don't know! That fact of the matter is...it difficult for any top-10 team to have four consecutive top-10 performances, but that is true also for TCU. So something potentially has to give.
In my opinion, all the intangibles should favor TCU. If nothing else, one could suggest that the chances are 3 out of 7 for the Clones.... since Iowa State has had three good games at this level, and four games at a much lower level. Whereby TCU has had a season long go at it. But...... that doesn't take into consideration that Iowa State owns a solid recent trend, that matches or exceeds TCU's last three games.
I could come up with some method that weighs more recent games heavier than earlier games, but what factor do I use? So.....screw it!.......I'm must going to leave things based on the last three games, and let the chips fall where they may on the field.
That having been said...the rest of the spreadsheet suggests some mind boggling scenarios about the rest of the season. However, I am refusing to engage in any conversation about that. For now, I'm sticking with our chances against TCU.
About TCU....
As it stands right now, TCU is undefeated, power ranked 12th by Sagarin, and 9th by Massey, against the 60th ranked SOS in the country.
Their offense is power ranked 24th in the country, and their defense is power ranked 5th in the country. For comparison, Oklahoma's defense is power ranked 4th.
TCU's SOS is rather skewed by having played sub-500 Jackson State, and even sub-150 Kansas. They have indeed played some quality teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and won both of those respectfully. Though, they did just not walk a way from 38th West Virginia at home...a team that we could compare to us playing Texas Tech.
I have done some analysis of TCU, and their trend lines show that they are performing at, or perhaps slightly above their power ranking, most especially against teams that are their peers. But, just like any team, their performance fluctuates somewhat around their average by about ten points.
Thus, assuming we all want to believe that Iowa State is a real top-10 team, this game comes down to being a matter of whatever may happen once these teams take the field.
GAME SUMMARY
The bottom line is that (based on the last three game of Iowa State)...at home I have Iowa State as an unfathomable eight point favorite. Worst case is that I credit TCU for playing a tad better than their power ranking....so lets just call Iowa State a 3 to 6 point favorite in this one, with a roughly 65% chance of winning the game.
Do I believe that????? Heck no!
But someone a lot smarter than me has to point out just what I should use quantifiably to suggest something otherwise. The trend is what it is.....until it isn't.
If nothing else, lets not forget what happened the week following the Texas Tech game last year. It wasn't pretty.
As I mentioned in another thread, my bladder will remain a problem until we get that all elusive sixth win.
I don't care who it comes against, but TCU win would make the rest of the season much easier to recline back and enjoy my beer.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Link......
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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