The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
This is an interesting point in the season from an analytical standpoint. We have enough season data on everyone to consider the ratings to be reasonably reflective of teams, with some allowance for future tweaking.
The talking points of the analysis are very blunt…….
Looking at it from a power ranking standpoint…since the 2nd game, Iowa State has beaten every team on its schedule ranked outside of the top-36. The problem of course is….there was only one.
To put Iowa State’s “problem” in perspective with other notable teams……
Seven of eight of Iowa State’s losses have come against top-41 teams.
Oklahoma has yet to notch a win in the top-45. (using Massey Ratings)
Iowa has yet to notch a win in the top-50.
Kansas State has yet to notch a win in the top-50.
Florida has yet to notch a win in the top-55.
Minnesota (7-2) has yet to notch a win in the top-60.
Texas has only one win in the top-65
Baylor has only one win in the top-85
TCU has only one win in the top-85
As can be seen, Iowa State is by no means the only team that has to learn how to win against top-40 teams. Quantity however, is a glaring difference.
Iowa State’s current strength of schedule stands at 12th in the country, virtually guaranteeing that Iowa State is facing its seventh consecutive top-25 strength of schedule at season’s end.
Looking at this year in greater detail,….what stands out is the absence of having played anybody in the 41 to 75 range. And furthermore only one team in the 41-140 range…….which represents 71% of the top-140 teams in the country!
The 41 to 75 range is where the bread and butter of P5 teams reside…….
What a great way to introduce Mr. Campbell to the big leagues.
KANSAS
Kansas is currently ranked 141st in the country. That places Kansas as the lowest ranked team that Iowa State has played in recent history. (Providing it stands.)
Based on researching Massey, Iowa State has lost only once to a team ranked lower than this year’s Kansas….when Donnie Duncan’s inaugural 1979 team lost to 160th ranked Pacific.
I went back to 1960 and have found no other time in the last 57 years where Iowa State has lost to a team power ranked 141th or below.
The only other two losses in this near 140th range are both owned by our beloved Gene Chizik, both in the same year no less. Chizik’s inaugural 2007 team lost to both 130th ranked Toledo and 140th ranked Kent.
To be fair (to Iowa State), this game is on the road which would make Kansas about a 120th equivalent…about a touchdown better than San Jose State at home.
There is no getting around the fact that if Iowa State loses to Kansas, it would be one of the most epic losses in Iowa State history, and not a very promising sign…...
Neither of the only two other coaches who accomplished such a lowly feat in the last 57 years…. left a loving mark on Iowa State history. So…..the pressure is on Coach Campbell.
A review of Kansas performance this year indicates that their power ranking is indeed accurate, and if anything is a tad too high, buoyed heavily by their performance against TCU. I could be wrong, but based on all of both TCU’s and Kansas’s other games, the TCU game appears to be more about TCU not taking Kansas seriously, than it was about Kansas being TCU caliber competitive.
Take the TCU game out as an outlier, and the rest of Jayhawk’s performance is averaging about five points even lower than their current rating…....or equal to about 155th in the country. Home Advantage though, brings is back into the 140-ish range.
If there is a caveat to be concerned about…it would be that Kansas has played an SOS nearly as tough as Iowa State’s, and as a result their rating has potentially been abnormally and excessively pushed down, and thusly would play better against a lower team like Iowa State, than the power rankings suggest.
Even with that potential condition, I just don’ think that Kansas could make up so much difference that they can beat Iowa State. Iowa State has generally played higher ranked teams more competitively than Kansas has.
SUMMARY
I have Iowa State as a 16 point favorite over Kansas, and I think that is conservative. I would most definitely take Iowa State against that spread.
At 16 points, that places Iowa State as a 93% likely winner of this game.
Should Iowa State lose this game, then that puts Coach Campbell in the same class as Donnie Duncan and Gene Chizik, regarding worst losses in Iowa State history…… measured by power ratings.
I just don’t see that happening.
The bottom line is that I will put my entire Cygarin Ratings reputation on the line right here for this game……..
Kansas with a power rating of 140th, represents the rating of teams that I have been espousing in recent years that Iowa State should be seeking out for at least some of it’s non-conference games….. and hasn’t.
This game falls solidly into the “virtual win” category for Iowa State. That is, unless Iowa State turns out to be a sub-100 team themselves…the Cyclones should not lose this game no matter how badly we play……..even playing UNI bad.
Granted, every team has a puncher’s chance of beating anybody else on any given Saturday. After all, we did it against Oklahoma State in 2011 against near similar odds.
But the reality of the matter is….
Should Iowa State loses to Kansas this Saturday, then people on this board and all of Cyclone Nation have a lot more things to worry about than me posting the Cygarin Ratings.
Losing to 140th ranked teams the only two times they have...didn't bode well for Iowa State, the coach who lost the game, nor the program as a whole.
I neither think that the Iowa State football program is in that bad of shape, nor do think Campbell is that coach who will lose.
I have been wrong before though. Hell, I totally whiffed on Tuesday night.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
This is an interesting point in the season from an analytical standpoint. We have enough season data on everyone to consider the ratings to be reasonably reflective of teams, with some allowance for future tweaking.
The talking points of the analysis are very blunt…….
- Iowa State averaged 22 points per game worse in the first two games then following seven. That is, Iowa State is performing at a rate of three touchdowns better per game than how they played in their first two games.
- All losses since UNI have come against top-41 power ranked teams.
- Similarly, all conference losses have come against top-36 power ranked teams in the Big-12.
Looking at it from a power ranking standpoint…since the 2nd game, Iowa State has beaten every team on its schedule ranked outside of the top-36. The problem of course is….there was only one.
To put Iowa State’s “problem” in perspective with other notable teams……
Seven of eight of Iowa State’s losses have come against top-41 teams.
Oklahoma has yet to notch a win in the top-45. (using Massey Ratings)
Iowa has yet to notch a win in the top-50.
Kansas State has yet to notch a win in the top-50.
Florida has yet to notch a win in the top-55.
Minnesota (7-2) has yet to notch a win in the top-60.
Texas has only one win in the top-65
Baylor has only one win in the top-85
TCU has only one win in the top-85
As can be seen, Iowa State is by no means the only team that has to learn how to win against top-40 teams. Quantity however, is a glaring difference.
Iowa State’s current strength of schedule stands at 12th in the country, virtually guaranteeing that Iowa State is facing its seventh consecutive top-25 strength of schedule at season’s end.
Looking at this year in greater detail,….what stands out is the absence of having played anybody in the 41 to 75 range. And furthermore only one team in the 41-140 range…….which represents 71% of the top-140 teams in the country!
The 41 to 75 range is where the bread and butter of P5 teams reside…….
- 7 of 14 Big-10 teams currently reside in the 34 to 70 range….six of those narrow to 51 -70.
- The SEC has 6 of 14 in the 58 -77 range.
What a great way to introduce Mr. Campbell to the big leagues.
KANSAS
Kansas is currently ranked 141st in the country. That places Kansas as the lowest ranked team that Iowa State has played in recent history. (Providing it stands.)
Based on researching Massey, Iowa State has lost only once to a team ranked lower than this year’s Kansas….when Donnie Duncan’s inaugural 1979 team lost to 160th ranked Pacific.
I went back to 1960 and have found no other time in the last 57 years where Iowa State has lost to a team power ranked 141th or below.
The only other two losses in this near 140th range are both owned by our beloved Gene Chizik, both in the same year no less. Chizik’s inaugural 2007 team lost to both 130th ranked Toledo and 140th ranked Kent.
To be fair (to Iowa State), this game is on the road which would make Kansas about a 120th equivalent…about a touchdown better than San Jose State at home.
There is no getting around the fact that if Iowa State loses to Kansas, it would be one of the most epic losses in Iowa State history, and not a very promising sign…...
Neither of the only two other coaches who accomplished such a lowly feat in the last 57 years…. left a loving mark on Iowa State history. So…..the pressure is on Coach Campbell.
A review of Kansas performance this year indicates that their power ranking is indeed accurate, and if anything is a tad too high, buoyed heavily by their performance against TCU. I could be wrong, but based on all of both TCU’s and Kansas’s other games, the TCU game appears to be more about TCU not taking Kansas seriously, than it was about Kansas being TCU caliber competitive.
Take the TCU game out as an outlier, and the rest of Jayhawk’s performance is averaging about five points even lower than their current rating…....or equal to about 155th in the country. Home Advantage though, brings is back into the 140-ish range.
If there is a caveat to be concerned about…it would be that Kansas has played an SOS nearly as tough as Iowa State’s, and as a result their rating has potentially been abnormally and excessively pushed down, and thusly would play better against a lower team like Iowa State, than the power rankings suggest.
Even with that potential condition, I just don’ think that Kansas could make up so much difference that they can beat Iowa State. Iowa State has generally played higher ranked teams more competitively than Kansas has.
SUMMARY
I have Iowa State as a 16 point favorite over Kansas, and I think that is conservative. I would most definitely take Iowa State against that spread.
At 16 points, that places Iowa State as a 93% likely winner of this game.
Should Iowa State lose this game, then that puts Coach Campbell in the same class as Donnie Duncan and Gene Chizik, regarding worst losses in Iowa State history…… measured by power ratings.
I just don’t see that happening.
The bottom line is that I will put my entire Cygarin Ratings reputation on the line right here for this game……..
Kansas with a power rating of 140th, represents the rating of teams that I have been espousing in recent years that Iowa State should be seeking out for at least some of it’s non-conference games….. and hasn’t.
This game falls solidly into the “virtual win” category for Iowa State. That is, unless Iowa State turns out to be a sub-100 team themselves…the Cyclones should not lose this game no matter how badly we play……..even playing UNI bad.
Granted, every team has a puncher’s chance of beating anybody else on any given Saturday. After all, we did it against Oklahoma State in 2011 against near similar odds.
But the reality of the matter is….
Should Iowa State loses to Kansas this Saturday, then people on this board and all of Cyclone Nation have a lot more things to worry about than me posting the Cygarin Ratings.
Losing to 140th ranked teams the only two times they have...didn't bode well for Iowa State, the coach who lost the game, nor the program as a whole.
I neither think that the Iowa State football program is in that bad of shape, nor do think Campbell is that coach who will lose.
I have been wrong before though. Hell, I totally whiffed on Tuesday night.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
