The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
Once again I am disclosing that I have modified the Iowa State’s and Iowa’s power ranking in my spreadsheet. In the case of Iowa State, the ranking reflects the last three consecutive games, which is profoundly better than the first three, and especially they first two.
In the case of Iowa, the adjusted rating represents all the games to date. Which for some inexplicable reason, their current Sagarin rating does not even closely reflect. I have never seen anything like this this late in the season. Iowa has only one performance more than a single point above their current power ranking (Iowa State,). Yet, four of six are below their performance rating by more than a touchdown. Three of those four below are by double digits.
One other disclosure….I have not been this excited about Iowa State’s recent competitive trend in years.
I fully understand (and share) everyone’s disappointment in losing the way we have in the fourth quarter of the last two games. But my perspective lies with the fact that we have been racking up lots of points and large margins against two of the better opponents on our strength of schedule, and in the country. And, losing closely.
Additionally, our performance against TCU, though not as good as the last three, was still a marked improvement compared to the first two.
Add in a deciding performance against lowly San Jose State, and you now have four consecutive respectful games, and three consecutive impressive games….resulting in a solid positive trend.
Ignoring the caliber of opponents, these last two losses understandably look like classic ole’ Iowa State. Especially when compared to last year.
But from my chair, the game outcome may be the same, but the caliber of opponent where this happened this year is a lot higher than last year.. For some, this is irrelevant and doesn’t matter. Losses are losses, and that is correct.
But what is different is… five of our last six games are against opponents rated lower than Baylor (at home) and Oklahoma State (on the road). That means that there are five remaining games on our schedule that are more winnable than Baylor and OSU….and we almost bet those two.
Taking the latest trend as-is……Iowa State has five games remaining that the Cygarin Ratings consider to be no worse than toss-up games, even if we continue our 4th quarter woes.
Should we improve on our 4th quarter issues….….we have five games where we could even be favored.
Put into numbers, Iowa State needs to perform at about 40th in the country in each and every game to be favored (albeit slightly, except Kansas) against five of our next six opponents.
The down-side is that despite having five winnable games left on our schedule, there is huge difference between each game being winnable, and winning all games. Six wins is still a lofty goal for a first year coach starting the season the way he did. But it falls within the “plausible” range enough, that it is worth the risk of mentioning it.
An observation about power rankings of offense and defenses…..
The Massey Power Ratings rate offenses and defenses. Those rankings are included in the spreadsheet every week. This week I’ve put a box around the defensive rankings of the last four teams we have played.
Note that those teams had defenses power ranked between 53rd and 77th along with San Jose State at 161st.
Note that the Texas defense is power ranked 86th, slightly worse than everyone except San Jose State. I don’t mind seeing this going into Saturday’s game. It is pretty apparent that our best defense is our offense, and the Longhorn’s defensive power rating favors Iowa State having a chance to do that.
TEXAS
Texas is obviously hurting.
If you look at their performance graph that I have included in the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet, the Horns have played only one game above their current power ranking. To their benefit, that best performance was in their most recent game, and it came against their strongest opponent to date. So, the evidence isn’t weak, but it could be the start of trend of playing better.
Just the same, prior to their game last week against Oklahoma, they were actually playing below their ranking, and on a two-game downward trend from not very good in the first place.
Even if you take the Oklahoma game as their current potential, that was about a 25th ranking performance. If they played that well against Iowa State that would make Iowa State a notable underdog, but by no means throws this game into the “virtual loss” statistical category.
Indeed, if Iowa State could play four quarters of what they have shown in three of the last three games, that performance would beat even the best of what Texas has shown us so far.
That having all been said, we all know the talent that lies within the Longhorn program. And the whole nation knows that losing to Iowa State this week would be nailing the coffin lid shut on Strong. Iowa State is a must win game against what they perceive as a should win opponent…at home….in front of a rabid crowd. Undoubtedly, we get the absolute best that Charlie Strong can muster.
The question is….how good can he muster?
Indeed, I would have a hard time believing that Strong would be allowed to coach the remainder of the year should he lose to Iowa State at home. So there is no doubt he and the team will be focused on our game.
SUMMARY
Texas has the ability to play much better than we have seen. Iowa State is far from being a mature program. That leaves the opportunity for Iowa State to get schooled if the conditions are right.
Aside from that though, just like I said last week……in my book this is a toss-up game. But this week…..I believe that the Cyclones are actually a very slight favorite.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet link...
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Once again I am disclosing that I have modified the Iowa State’s and Iowa’s power ranking in my spreadsheet. In the case of Iowa State, the ranking reflects the last three consecutive games, which is profoundly better than the first three, and especially they first two.
In the case of Iowa, the adjusted rating represents all the games to date. Which for some inexplicable reason, their current Sagarin rating does not even closely reflect. I have never seen anything like this this late in the season. Iowa has only one performance more than a single point above their current power ranking (Iowa State,). Yet, four of six are below their performance rating by more than a touchdown. Three of those four below are by double digits.
One other disclosure….I have not been this excited about Iowa State’s recent competitive trend in years.
I fully understand (and share) everyone’s disappointment in losing the way we have in the fourth quarter of the last two games. But my perspective lies with the fact that we have been racking up lots of points and large margins against two of the better opponents on our strength of schedule, and in the country. And, losing closely.
Additionally, our performance against TCU, though not as good as the last three, was still a marked improvement compared to the first two.
Add in a deciding performance against lowly San Jose State, and you now have four consecutive respectful games, and three consecutive impressive games….resulting in a solid positive trend.
Ignoring the caliber of opponents, these last two losses understandably look like classic ole’ Iowa State. Especially when compared to last year.
But from my chair, the game outcome may be the same, but the caliber of opponent where this happened this year is a lot higher than last year.. For some, this is irrelevant and doesn’t matter. Losses are losses, and that is correct.
But what is different is… five of our last six games are against opponents rated lower than Baylor (at home) and Oklahoma State (on the road). That means that there are five remaining games on our schedule that are more winnable than Baylor and OSU….and we almost bet those two.
Taking the latest trend as-is……Iowa State has five games remaining that the Cygarin Ratings consider to be no worse than toss-up games, even if we continue our 4th quarter woes.
Should we improve on our 4th quarter issues….….we have five games where we could even be favored.
Put into numbers, Iowa State needs to perform at about 40th in the country in each and every game to be favored (albeit slightly, except Kansas) against five of our next six opponents.
The down-side is that despite having five winnable games left on our schedule, there is huge difference between each game being winnable, and winning all games. Six wins is still a lofty goal for a first year coach starting the season the way he did. But it falls within the “plausible” range enough, that it is worth the risk of mentioning it.
An observation about power rankings of offense and defenses…..
The Massey Power Ratings rate offenses and defenses. Those rankings are included in the spreadsheet every week. This week I’ve put a box around the defensive rankings of the last four teams we have played.
Note that those teams had defenses power ranked between 53rd and 77th along with San Jose State at 161st.
Note that the Texas defense is power ranked 86th, slightly worse than everyone except San Jose State. I don’t mind seeing this going into Saturday’s game. It is pretty apparent that our best defense is our offense, and the Longhorn’s defensive power rating favors Iowa State having a chance to do that.
TEXAS
Texas is obviously hurting.
If you look at their performance graph that I have included in the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet, the Horns have played only one game above their current power ranking. To their benefit, that best performance was in their most recent game, and it came against their strongest opponent to date. So, the evidence isn’t weak, but it could be the start of trend of playing better.
Just the same, prior to their game last week against Oklahoma, they were actually playing below their ranking, and on a two-game downward trend from not very good in the first place.
Even if you take the Oklahoma game as their current potential, that was about a 25th ranking performance. If they played that well against Iowa State that would make Iowa State a notable underdog, but by no means throws this game into the “virtual loss” statistical category.
Indeed, if Iowa State could play four quarters of what they have shown in three of the last three games, that performance would beat even the best of what Texas has shown us so far.
That having all been said, we all know the talent that lies within the Longhorn program. And the whole nation knows that losing to Iowa State this week would be nailing the coffin lid shut on Strong. Iowa State is a must win game against what they perceive as a should win opponent…at home….in front of a rabid crowd. Undoubtedly, we get the absolute best that Charlie Strong can muster.
The question is….how good can he muster?
Indeed, I would have a hard time believing that Strong would be allowed to coach the remainder of the year should he lose to Iowa State at home. So there is no doubt he and the team will be focused on our game.
SUMMARY
Texas has the ability to play much better than we have seen. Iowa State is far from being a mature program. That leaves the opportunity for Iowa State to get schooled if the conditions are right.
Aside from that though, just like I said last week……in my book this is a toss-up game. But this week…..I believe that the Cyclones are actually a very slight favorite.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet link...
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
