The Cygarin Ratings has been updated. There really isn’t much to say.....
We all know that Iowa State is a developmental unknown entity this year, and with making so many mental mistakes it’s hard to determine what their core competency is should they have a much less mistake prone game.
San Jose State is power ranked 112th, which is our first sub-100 opponent since 2013. In 2015, 2014, and 2011 Iowa State did not play a sub-100 non-conference opponent.
Here is how we have done with sub-100 non-conference opponents since 2008. For the record, in 2007 Chizik lost to two sub-100 teams. I do not believe that Dan McCarney ever did, but I did not go back that far for this update. Historically it is really rare for Iowa State to lose to a sub-100 team no matter how bad we are, which rarely were we sub-100 ourselves.
In 2013 we played 139th ranked Tulsa (at Tulsa), and won 39-21. Iowa State was power ranked 75th, and we were ten point favorites. (UNI was ranked 86th and we lost.)
In 2012 we played 191st ranked Western Illinois and won 37-3. Iowa State was power ranked 55th. We were 33 point favorites.
In 2010 we played 125th ranked Northern Iowa and won 27-0. Iowa State was power ranked 79th. We were 14 point favorites.
In 2009 we played three sub-100 teams…..
- 118th ranked Kent state and won 34-14. Iowa State was power ranked 76th. We were 13 point favorites.
- 136th ranked Army and won 31-10. We were 17 point favorites.
- 145th ranked North Dakota State and won 34-17. We were 19 point favorites.
In 2008 we played two sub-100 teams….
- 126th South Dakota State and won 44-17. Iowa state was ranked 99th in the country. We were 7 point favorites.
- 131st ranked Kent State and won 48-28. We were 8 point favorites
San Jose State is a bit of an unknown yet. They lost to 66th ranked Tulsa badly 45-10, and beat 160th Portland State 66-35 in a game that San Jose State was favored by two touchdowns.
However, they gave 37th ranked Utah a run for their money, finally losing 34-14, and it is hard to figure out what that game means.
I do believe though, that Utah may be a little over ranked at 37th. They barely squeaked by 49th ranked BYU at home, and didn’t have overly impressive wins over a couple of sub-100 opponents. If that should be the case, my gut tells me that San Jose State may be a little bit over ranked themselves this early in the season.
SUMMARY
There is really not much to go by. Or rather, there is still too much dysfunction on Iowa State’s part to go by.
Generally speaking, the competitiveness of teams below a 100th power ranking falls off really fast. To me it is the demarcation between teams that are P5 caliber "competent" and those that are not. Obviously there is notable overlap. But P5 teams that are not in the top-100 are not competitive with those that are, and non-P5 teams that are in the top-100 are almost always highly competitive against P5 opponents.
As mentioned earlier, very rarely has Iowa State lost to a sub-100 team no matter how bad we were. That even incudes the Jim Walden era. The exception (not surprisingly) was Gene Chizik.
Iowa State is a five point favorite per the Cygarin Ratings. I lean towards agreeing with this spread. Mistake free, I think we are indeed top-100 competent. If we can play mistake free.
My gut tells me that if we can play clean (enough) football in the early part of the game and keep a lead, we should be able to carry that momentum through to the end.
That’s a lot assuming that we are working the dysfunctionality out of this young team though.
(In my opinon.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
We all know that Iowa State is a developmental unknown entity this year, and with making so many mental mistakes it’s hard to determine what their core competency is should they have a much less mistake prone game.
San Jose State is power ranked 112th, which is our first sub-100 opponent since 2013. In 2015, 2014, and 2011 Iowa State did not play a sub-100 non-conference opponent.
Here is how we have done with sub-100 non-conference opponents since 2008. For the record, in 2007 Chizik lost to two sub-100 teams. I do not believe that Dan McCarney ever did, but I did not go back that far for this update. Historically it is really rare for Iowa State to lose to a sub-100 team no matter how bad we are, which rarely were we sub-100 ourselves.
In 2013 we played 139th ranked Tulsa (at Tulsa), and won 39-21. Iowa State was power ranked 75th, and we were ten point favorites. (UNI was ranked 86th and we lost.)
In 2012 we played 191st ranked Western Illinois and won 37-3. Iowa State was power ranked 55th. We were 33 point favorites.
In 2010 we played 125th ranked Northern Iowa and won 27-0. Iowa State was power ranked 79th. We were 14 point favorites.
In 2009 we played three sub-100 teams…..
- 118th ranked Kent state and won 34-14. Iowa State was power ranked 76th. We were 13 point favorites.
- 136th ranked Army and won 31-10. We were 17 point favorites.
- 145th ranked North Dakota State and won 34-17. We were 19 point favorites.
In 2008 we played two sub-100 teams….
- 126th South Dakota State and won 44-17. Iowa state was ranked 99th in the country. We were 7 point favorites.
- 131st ranked Kent State and won 48-28. We were 8 point favorites
San Jose State is a bit of an unknown yet. They lost to 66th ranked Tulsa badly 45-10, and beat 160th Portland State 66-35 in a game that San Jose State was favored by two touchdowns.
However, they gave 37th ranked Utah a run for their money, finally losing 34-14, and it is hard to figure out what that game means.
I do believe though, that Utah may be a little over ranked at 37th. They barely squeaked by 49th ranked BYU at home, and didn’t have overly impressive wins over a couple of sub-100 opponents. If that should be the case, my gut tells me that San Jose State may be a little bit over ranked themselves this early in the season.
SUMMARY
There is really not much to go by. Or rather, there is still too much dysfunction on Iowa State’s part to go by.
Generally speaking, the competitiveness of teams below a 100th power ranking falls off really fast. To me it is the demarcation between teams that are P5 caliber "competent" and those that are not. Obviously there is notable overlap. But P5 teams that are not in the top-100 are not competitive with those that are, and non-P5 teams that are in the top-100 are almost always highly competitive against P5 opponents.
As mentioned earlier, very rarely has Iowa State lost to a sub-100 team no matter how bad we were. That even incudes the Jim Walden era. The exception (not surprisingly) was Gene Chizik.
Iowa State is a five point favorite per the Cygarin Ratings. I lean towards agreeing with this spread. Mistake free, I think we are indeed top-100 competent. If we can play mistake free.
My gut tells me that if we can play clean (enough) football in the early part of the game and keep a lead, we should be able to carry that momentum through to the end.
That’s a lot assuming that we are working the dysfunctionality out of this young team though.
(In my opinon.)
Cygarin
Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet link.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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