The Cygarin Rating have been updated.
Yowzers. What an interesting game, by the numbers anyway. I have added performance graphs for Kansas State, and it's probably worth taking a look.
Let's just compare the two teams by the various respective comparative data....
Power Rating:
Kansas State has the slight advantage being a little over 2 points better than Iowa State.
Home field advantage is three points, so adjusted Kansas State has a five point advantage of the Clones.
The advantage here lies with Kansas State by just short of a touchdown.
Performance over the season:
From a win-loss standpoint, Kansas State is trending a serious funk, having lost all six of it's conference games. However, I would be very careful reading too much into this. Kansas State has suffered the downside of the conference's efforts to create the tough matchups at the end of the season, it may be misleading. All six their games were in the top seven toughest games of their schedule.
From a margin of victory standpoint, Kansas State has been on bit of a downward trend. However, the strength of schedule has to be taken into consideration when evaluating that. The MOV may very well have been influenced by the tougher schedule, with little opportunity to average it off by playing (relatively) weaker teams.
We obviously all know what Iowa State's win-loss record is.
From a margin of victory standpoint, quite frankly there is a very notable upward trend, with the exception of the Oklahoma game. The average of the Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State games is about eleven points above Iowa State's current power rating, and that is a very huge uptick against some very good opponents. If you wish to include Oklahoma, Iowa State is still playing about six points above their current overall season rating.
The advantage here is slightly Iowa State. In the last part of the season to date, the Cyclones have pulled ahead of KSU straight up, and with home field advantage favoring the Wildcats, have pretty much pulled this to a dead heat game.
Performance Within Conference Play
Here is where there really is no comparison that can be made. All of Iowa State's wins have been to opponents ranked lower than any opponents that Kansas State has played.
Against the Strength of Schedule
This is the most interesting comparison.....
Kansas State has a really weird dip in performance right in the middle of their strength of schedule, right in the range of about where Iowa State lies. KSU's worst performance of the year were against Texas and Texas Tech. What this means, I don't know, because they have also played considerably better against the stronger part of their schedule.
In general, I would chalk this up to variation due to their tough conference schedule play. I would be more inclined to look at Kansas State's performance against the better teams. With the exception that Oklahoma did to them, what Oklahoma did to us.
Iowa State is really interesting. Against the bottom four teams on Iowa State's schedule (Kansas, UNI, Texas, and Toledo) Iowa State is playing a full12 points above their ranking. Futhermore, against teams ranked above this , Iowa State has played Oklahoma State and Baylor quite solidly.
This is a very interesting "iffy" comparison. If Kansas State's ranking is accurate, Iowa State has a very decided advantage over Kansas State for performance against teams ranked in this range. And the opposite is true about Kansas State.
The counterpoint to this is that Kansas State has a better performance against better teams, and it may be that Kansas State is underrated due to their incredibly grueling schedule over the last six games.
At this point, the strength of the numbers favors Iowa State
Summary:
This is a remarkable game from the standpoint that it creates a crossroads game for both teams against the their respective strength of schedules.
For both teams, as it stands right now....each have beaten every opponent ranked lower than Iowa State, and lost to every opponent ranked higher. Thus this game is basically the rubber match of the strength of schedule.
From an analytical standpoint, I see a lot things that favor Iowa State. The Cyclones are playing very well ball of late against very good teams, and the are playing as good as anybody in the country against sub-35 and especially sub-30 teams.
Kansas State has played mostly decently in losing efforts against an incredibly grueling last six games, and my huge concern about the Wildcats is that their schedule has been taking it's toll on them, and therefore masked what their potential is if they can catch their breath.
These two teams are mirror images of each other. And what blows me away is that both teams may be very capable of winning in the 25th to 35th range, which is the upper half of bowl teams. Yet neither will ever know, nor make a bowl game.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Yowzers. What an interesting game, by the numbers anyway. I have added performance graphs for Kansas State, and it's probably worth taking a look.
Let's just compare the two teams by the various respective comparative data....
Power Rating:
Kansas State has the slight advantage being a little over 2 points better than Iowa State.
Home field advantage is three points, so adjusted Kansas State has a five point advantage of the Clones.
The advantage here lies with Kansas State by just short of a touchdown.
Performance over the season:
From a win-loss standpoint, Kansas State is trending a serious funk, having lost all six of it's conference games. However, I would be very careful reading too much into this. Kansas State has suffered the downside of the conference's efforts to create the tough matchups at the end of the season, it may be misleading. All six their games were in the top seven toughest games of their schedule.
From a margin of victory standpoint, Kansas State has been on bit of a downward trend. However, the strength of schedule has to be taken into consideration when evaluating that. The MOV may very well have been influenced by the tougher schedule, with little opportunity to average it off by playing (relatively) weaker teams.
We obviously all know what Iowa State's win-loss record is.
From a margin of victory standpoint, quite frankly there is a very notable upward trend, with the exception of the Oklahoma game. The average of the Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State games is about eleven points above Iowa State's current power rating, and that is a very huge uptick against some very good opponents. If you wish to include Oklahoma, Iowa State is still playing about six points above their current overall season rating.
The advantage here is slightly Iowa State. In the last part of the season to date, the Cyclones have pulled ahead of KSU straight up, and with home field advantage favoring the Wildcats, have pretty much pulled this to a dead heat game.
Performance Within Conference Play
Here is where there really is no comparison that can be made. All of Iowa State's wins have been to opponents ranked lower than any opponents that Kansas State has played.
Against the Strength of Schedule
This is the most interesting comparison.....
Kansas State has a really weird dip in performance right in the middle of their strength of schedule, right in the range of about where Iowa State lies. KSU's worst performance of the year were against Texas and Texas Tech. What this means, I don't know, because they have also played considerably better against the stronger part of their schedule.
In general, I would chalk this up to variation due to their tough conference schedule play. I would be more inclined to look at Kansas State's performance against the better teams. With the exception that Oklahoma did to them, what Oklahoma did to us.
Iowa State is really interesting. Against the bottom four teams on Iowa State's schedule (Kansas, UNI, Texas, and Toledo) Iowa State is playing a full12 points above their ranking. Futhermore, against teams ranked above this , Iowa State has played Oklahoma State and Baylor quite solidly.
This is a very interesting "iffy" comparison. If Kansas State's ranking is accurate, Iowa State has a very decided advantage over Kansas State for performance against teams ranked in this range. And the opposite is true about Kansas State.
The counterpoint to this is that Kansas State has a better performance against better teams, and it may be that Kansas State is underrated due to their incredibly grueling schedule over the last six games.
At this point, the strength of the numbers favors Iowa State
Summary:
This is a remarkable game from the standpoint that it creates a crossroads game for both teams against the their respective strength of schedules.
For both teams, as it stands right now....each have beaten every opponent ranked lower than Iowa State, and lost to every opponent ranked higher. Thus this game is basically the rubber match of the strength of schedule.
From an analytical standpoint, I see a lot things that favor Iowa State. The Cyclones are playing very well ball of late against very good teams, and the are playing as good as anybody in the country against sub-35 and especially sub-30 teams.
Kansas State has played mostly decently in losing efforts against an incredibly grueling last six games, and my huge concern about the Wildcats is that their schedule has been taking it's toll on them, and therefore masked what their potential is if they can catch their breath.
These two teams are mirror images of each other. And what blows me away is that both teams may be very capable of winning in the 25th to 35th range, which is the upper half of bowl teams. Yet neither will ever know, nor make a bowl game.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
