The Cygarin Ratings have been updated, and quite frankly there isn't much positive that can be expressed. At least, not that is relevant to wins or win potential.
It pains me to express, over and over ad nauseam that what I expected to happen, is indeed happening.
I had been saying that a top-25 strength of schedule was inevitable, and that a top-10 strength of schedule was most likely. As it stands, Iowa State at 10th, and the most difficult half of their schedule (by far) is still ahead of them.
Without question the most glaring part of the analysis lies with where Iowa State's record lies against the strength of schedule.....
0-3 against teams ranked 10th, 21st, and 24th equivalents.
0-0-1 in regulation against the 25th ranked equivalent.
Untested between 26th and 116th ranked opponents.
2-0 against teams ranked 116th ranked equivalent and lower.
All told, with a such crude sample, from a win-loss standpoint....the data suggests that Iowa State is at or near being a top-25 team capability-wise...with a 2-4 record.
One of my personal frustrations is the week to week compounding of emotions without the review of facts in retrospect.
At the time, we lost to a "bad" Iowa team. That team is currently an overwhelming consensus top-15 team. And in all due respect, it took a lot of fortune for them to beat us.
At the time, we lost to a bad Toledo team, on the road, in double overtime. That team is currently an overwhelming consensus top-25 equivalent. And we lost that game because of the failure of the field goal kicker to make a chip shot. Not to mention that we were first and goal with plenty of time to score a touchdown.
At the time, we lost to a "bad" Texas Tech team. That team is currently a 21st rated equivalent. To be fair though, it was an incredibly bad performance. But their offense is indeed power ranked 3rd in the country.
Then and now, TCU was and is a national championship team. I don't think anybody realistically expected us to win that game. And we faced the No. 2 power rated offense in the country.
From a margin standpoint, Texas Tech stands out as an outlier performance. It was sickening to see Iowa State have it's worst game of the year against a team that we arguably could have beat. But the fact is, bad games are going to happen. After all, Kansas State got whipped 55-0...does anybody really think that Kansas State is that bad?
I'm not making excuses, just expressing analytical observations. Again as a reminder, I went on record long before the season that the end of the Paul Rhoads era is inevitable. Nothing, absolutely nothing.... was going to stop it.
Either Iowa State was going to games against good teams so closely that he will be condemned for a singular coaching errors.....or he was going to lose games badly. Either way...Rhoads was going to be criticized
And again, that is not a endorsement nor a condemnation of Coach Rhoads. The man who happens to be wearing the coaching hat is not the issue one way or the other. The Cygarin Manifesto is not an opinion. Iowa State was going to have a losing record this year.
The fact is, since we have played absolutely nobody between 26th and 115th......the only thing we can quantify is that Iowa State is not a top-25 team, and definitely something better than 115th.
.
The current median of our entire schedule sits at 82.93. That literally means that six of our opponents are 20th rated equivalents or higher.
And if that is not staggering enough..... eight opponents.....75 percent of our entire schedule.....is 35th or higher equivalent.
That is, as it stands right now, there appears to be only one team that Iowa State will play the entire season that may falls between 34th and 116th-ish equivalent...and that is one hell of a scenario to try to avoid losing one's job. Or for somebody who takes his place, for that matter.
It's not pretty.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
It pains me to express, over and over ad nauseam that what I expected to happen, is indeed happening.
I had been saying that a top-25 strength of schedule was inevitable, and that a top-10 strength of schedule was most likely. As it stands, Iowa State at 10th, and the most difficult half of their schedule (by far) is still ahead of them.
Without question the most glaring part of the analysis lies with where Iowa State's record lies against the strength of schedule.....
0-3 against teams ranked 10th, 21st, and 24th equivalents.
0-0-1 in regulation against the 25th ranked equivalent.
Untested between 26th and 116th ranked opponents.
2-0 against teams ranked 116th ranked equivalent and lower.
All told, with a such crude sample, from a win-loss standpoint....the data suggests that Iowa State is at or near being a top-25 team capability-wise...with a 2-4 record.
One of my personal frustrations is the week to week compounding of emotions without the review of facts in retrospect.
At the time, we lost to a "bad" Iowa team. That team is currently an overwhelming consensus top-15 team. And in all due respect, it took a lot of fortune for them to beat us.
At the time, we lost to a bad Toledo team, on the road, in double overtime. That team is currently an overwhelming consensus top-25 equivalent. And we lost that game because of the failure of the field goal kicker to make a chip shot. Not to mention that we were first and goal with plenty of time to score a touchdown.
At the time, we lost to a "bad" Texas Tech team. That team is currently a 21st rated equivalent. To be fair though, it was an incredibly bad performance. But their offense is indeed power ranked 3rd in the country.
Then and now, TCU was and is a national championship team. I don't think anybody realistically expected us to win that game. And we faced the No. 2 power rated offense in the country.
From a margin standpoint, Texas Tech stands out as an outlier performance. It was sickening to see Iowa State have it's worst game of the year against a team that we arguably could have beat. But the fact is, bad games are going to happen. After all, Kansas State got whipped 55-0...does anybody really think that Kansas State is that bad?
I'm not making excuses, just expressing analytical observations. Again as a reminder, I went on record long before the season that the end of the Paul Rhoads era is inevitable. Nothing, absolutely nothing.... was going to stop it.
Either Iowa State was going to games against good teams so closely that he will be condemned for a singular coaching errors.....or he was going to lose games badly. Either way...Rhoads was going to be criticized
And again, that is not a endorsement nor a condemnation of Coach Rhoads. The man who happens to be wearing the coaching hat is not the issue one way or the other. The Cygarin Manifesto is not an opinion. Iowa State was going to have a losing record this year.
The fact is, since we have played absolutely nobody between 26th and 115th......the only thing we can quantify is that Iowa State is not a top-25 team, and definitely something better than 115th.
.
The current median of our entire schedule sits at 82.93. That literally means that six of our opponents are 20th rated equivalents or higher.
And if that is not staggering enough..... eight opponents.....75 percent of our entire schedule.....is 35th or higher equivalent.
That is, as it stands right now, there appears to be only one team that Iowa State will play the entire season that may falls between 34th and 116th-ish equivalent...and that is one hell of a scenario to try to avoid losing one's job. Or for somebody who takes his place, for that matter.
It's not pretty.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
