The Cygarin Ratings have been updated.
Just to make full disclosure, when I make out the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet, I use the current power ratings. But when I do my spreadsheet analysis, when teams are tied at the end of regulation play, I use a zero margin of victory to assess that game's performance, margin-wise. In my opinion, that represents a more accurate performance for the game than does the addition of a full score in post regulation play. Take that for what it is worth.
With that in mind, what I see in the analysis is that Iowa State is playing six points over their current ranking of 57th. If you add six points to their current rating you get a rating score that equates to a power ranking of almost exactly 35th. And I believe that indeed passes the eye test.
Here is how Iowa State has performed in it's four games from a ranking perspective....
UNI: A performance expected of a 6th ranked team.
Toledo: A performance expected of a 26th ranked team.
Kansas: A performance expected of a 42nd ranked team.
Iowa: A performance expected of a 82nd ranked team.
One cannot un-ring the bell. But I think the consensus on this board is that both Iowa and Toledo are games that should not have gotten away from us. With that in mind, I think even the harshest critics would say that we are top-25 "capable" if it wasn't for the lapses. The question is.....are the lapses a part of who we are, or not, going forward.
Furthermore, it's impossible for me to do a Cygarin Rating analysis without pointing out the schedule. Iowa State has played two top-25 non-conference teams. Yes....the schedule is what it is. But what would we be talking about right now, had we not played two top 25 opponents, one of them on the road. It most certainly would not be who our next coach might be.
Anyway, my point is.....Iowa State is playing at the average level of a top-35 team right now. At least so far, and based on the ratings at this point.
Texas Tech.....
Interestingly, in many ways Texas Tech is us looking in a mirror. The have had a challenging schedule and as a result the are facing .500. Had they not faced those two tough teams, they could be undefeated.
That having been said, they have had some less than stellar games....a 14 point win over 115th ranked Sam Houston State and a 28 point loss to 3rd ranked Baylor.
Texas Tech is currently ranked 47th, and like Iowa State I think that is probably a little low. But it is hard to tell when they have slobberknocked the bejeezus out of 167th UTEP, and then got themselves slobberknocked by 3rd ranked Baylor.
Add to that a less than stellar game over SHS, and then a rather decent win against 39th Arkansas on the road....and you have Texas Tech all over the place against all levels of competition. What Texas Tech is not....is stable.
That having been said.......
I like they way our two schedules have played out. Iowa State is coming off a bye and a fairly easy game, leaving us as a pretty fresh (and healthy) team. Texas Tech is coming off three incredibly tough games in a row: Arkansas, TCU, and Baylor.
If this game was at home, I would actually favor Iowa State. As it is, one still has to give Texas Tech the nod. But it is indeed a winnable game with decent odds. And it comes under the right intangible circumstances, and the potential for those circumstances to be right on Saturday is pretty good.
This is one of those games where the probability of win or lose is far easier than the probability of picking any given score. That's because of the variability of the circumstances as well as the wide variability of Texas Tech themselves.
One power rating statistic really stands out for me, and that is the power rating of Texas Tech's defense by Massey......
UNI: 67th
Iowa: 22nd
Toledo: 36th
Kansas: 106th
Texas Tech: 126th
I am cautious to reference offensive and defensive power ratings so early in the season, but if there is a crack of opportunity.....it my lie in the possibility that we are playing the worst defense that we will face all year.
For what it is worth...Texas Tech's offense is power rated 4th, so a high scoring game is probably what you are going to see.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings: http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
Just to make full disclosure, when I make out the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet, I use the current power ratings. But when I do my spreadsheet analysis, when teams are tied at the end of regulation play, I use a zero margin of victory to assess that game's performance, margin-wise. In my opinion, that represents a more accurate performance for the game than does the addition of a full score in post regulation play. Take that for what it is worth.
With that in mind, what I see in the analysis is that Iowa State is playing six points over their current ranking of 57th. If you add six points to their current rating you get a rating score that equates to a power ranking of almost exactly 35th. And I believe that indeed passes the eye test.
Here is how Iowa State has performed in it's four games from a ranking perspective....
UNI: A performance expected of a 6th ranked team.
Toledo: A performance expected of a 26th ranked team.
Kansas: A performance expected of a 42nd ranked team.
Iowa: A performance expected of a 82nd ranked team.
One cannot un-ring the bell. But I think the consensus on this board is that both Iowa and Toledo are games that should not have gotten away from us. With that in mind, I think even the harshest critics would say that we are top-25 "capable" if it wasn't for the lapses. The question is.....are the lapses a part of who we are, or not, going forward.
Furthermore, it's impossible for me to do a Cygarin Rating analysis without pointing out the schedule. Iowa State has played two top-25 non-conference teams. Yes....the schedule is what it is. But what would we be talking about right now, had we not played two top 25 opponents, one of them on the road. It most certainly would not be who our next coach might be.
Anyway, my point is.....Iowa State is playing at the average level of a top-35 team right now. At least so far, and based on the ratings at this point.
Texas Tech.....
Interestingly, in many ways Texas Tech is us looking in a mirror. The have had a challenging schedule and as a result the are facing .500. Had they not faced those two tough teams, they could be undefeated.
That having been said, they have had some less than stellar games....a 14 point win over 115th ranked Sam Houston State and a 28 point loss to 3rd ranked Baylor.
Texas Tech is currently ranked 47th, and like Iowa State I think that is probably a little low. But it is hard to tell when they have slobberknocked the bejeezus out of 167th UTEP, and then got themselves slobberknocked by 3rd ranked Baylor.
Add to that a less than stellar game over SHS, and then a rather decent win against 39th Arkansas on the road....and you have Texas Tech all over the place against all levels of competition. What Texas Tech is not....is stable.
That having been said.......
I like they way our two schedules have played out. Iowa State is coming off a bye and a fairly easy game, leaving us as a pretty fresh (and healthy) team. Texas Tech is coming off three incredibly tough games in a row: Arkansas, TCU, and Baylor.
If this game was at home, I would actually favor Iowa State. As it is, one still has to give Texas Tech the nod. But it is indeed a winnable game with decent odds. And it comes under the right intangible circumstances, and the potential for those circumstances to be right on Saturday is pretty good.
This is one of those games where the probability of win or lose is far easier than the probability of picking any given score. That's because of the variability of the circumstances as well as the wide variability of Texas Tech themselves.
One power rating statistic really stands out for me, and that is the power rating of Texas Tech's defense by Massey......
UNI: 67th
Iowa: 22nd
Toledo: 36th
Kansas: 106th
Texas Tech: 126th
I am cautious to reference offensive and defensive power ratings so early in the season, but if there is a crack of opportunity.....it my lie in the possibility that we are playing the worst defense that we will face all year.
For what it is worth...Texas Tech's offense is power rated 4th, so a high scoring game is probably what you are going to see.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings: http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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