The Cygarin Ratings have been updated. There's not a whole lot to say.
I think the most important thing to point out is that the various power ratings are not much in sync with each other, and therefore it's pretty hard to interpret what is relevant and what is not. It's just too early.
Toledo, despite beating Arkansas, is rating in the mid-40's to about 50th. Considering that Toledo had it's first game cancelled, the ratings systems are having a hard time evaluating whether beating Arkansas was an anomaly or a sign of profound improvement. Of course, so are we and the rest of the nation.
Regardless, Toledo was rated in the 60's last year, and I don't think that I am going out on a limb to suggest that is a minimum rating that should be used for them right now. Thus, the worst we can look at when facing Toledo is for them to be a mid-30's equivalent team on the road with home field advantage factored in.
Or put another way...if Iowa State should beat Toledo....there is an argument to made that Iowa State is indeed approaching being a top-30 caliber team.
Regarding the schedule.....
Though it is still early, all signs point towards Iowa State's top five opponents being top-20 teams. Four of them are on the road, and the home game is against TCU.
In short, with home court advantage factored in.....Iowa State's five top opponents have a minimum equivalent ranking of top-15, three being top-7 or better.
If this holds up, it is fair to say that these games are essentially profoundly out of reach of any sub-30 power rated team.....And thus Iowa State now faces five winnable remaining games in which to win five more games and become bowl eligible.
Four of those five remaining games are considered minimally toss-up...unless Iowa State becomes a solid top-25 team.
Again, that assuming the ratings don't change, which I guess they can.
I think there is one interesting statistic to compare.....
The median strength of schedule for Iowa State is 79.4 which equates to approximately 40th in the country. That is, half of Iowa State's opponents are top-40 and half of them are below that.
For what it is worth, Iowa plays three teams that are rated higher than 79.4
The median strength of schedule for Iowa is 65.85 which equates to approximately 80th in the country. That is one half if Iowa's opponents are ranked are top-80, and half of them are below that.
For what it is worth, Iowa State plays only two teams that are rated lower than 80th in the country.
That is about all I am going to say about the Cygarin Ratings at this time. It looks worse than "not good", but it's not cast in stone, either.
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
I think the most important thing to point out is that the various power ratings are not much in sync with each other, and therefore it's pretty hard to interpret what is relevant and what is not. It's just too early.
Toledo, despite beating Arkansas, is rating in the mid-40's to about 50th. Considering that Toledo had it's first game cancelled, the ratings systems are having a hard time evaluating whether beating Arkansas was an anomaly or a sign of profound improvement. Of course, so are we and the rest of the nation.
Regardless, Toledo was rated in the 60's last year, and I don't think that I am going out on a limb to suggest that is a minimum rating that should be used for them right now. Thus, the worst we can look at when facing Toledo is for them to be a mid-30's equivalent team on the road with home field advantage factored in.
Or put another way...if Iowa State should beat Toledo....there is an argument to made that Iowa State is indeed approaching being a top-30 caliber team.
Regarding the schedule.....
Though it is still early, all signs point towards Iowa State's top five opponents being top-20 teams. Four of them are on the road, and the home game is against TCU.
In short, with home court advantage factored in.....Iowa State's five top opponents have a minimum equivalent ranking of top-15, three being top-7 or better.
If this holds up, it is fair to say that these games are essentially profoundly out of reach of any sub-30 power rated team.....And thus Iowa State now faces five winnable remaining games in which to win five more games and become bowl eligible.
Four of those five remaining games are considered minimally toss-up...unless Iowa State becomes a solid top-25 team.
Again, that assuming the ratings don't change, which I guess they can.
I think there is one interesting statistic to compare.....
The median strength of schedule for Iowa State is 79.4 which equates to approximately 40th in the country. That is, half of Iowa State's opponents are top-40 and half of them are below that.
For what it is worth, Iowa plays three teams that are rated higher than 79.4
The median strength of schedule for Iowa is 65.85 which equates to approximately 80th in the country. That is one half if Iowa's opponents are ranked are top-80, and half of them are below that.
For what it is worth, Iowa State plays only two teams that are rated lower than 80th in the country.
That is about all I am going to say about the Cygarin Ratings at this time. It looks worse than "not good", but it's not cast in stone, either.
Cygarin Ratings.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
